📈 Traditional auto OEMs collapse into mega-mergers

⚖ Why this result

fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set

1. Window: 2025-01-04 → 2026-01-04 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
2. The call: ▼ SHORT STLA (primary play). STLA fell 4.4% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = +4.4% (the call made money).
3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +16.1% → vs SPY = +4.4 − (+16.1) = -11.7% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
   Direction-only read: +20.5% — did STLA move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
4. Rule fired:
   · RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+

   · HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all

   ▶ WRONG — everything else
5. Credit: supporters of a WRONG earn 0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Chamath, Gavin Baker, Jason

each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Chamath 42%

2 scoring events · 68% of moves

+45.7 → net +45.7

Gavin Baker 67% regular guest ×1.0

1 scoring event · 20% of moves

+13.5 → net +13.5

Jason 49%

1 scoring event · 12% of moves

+8.4 → net +8.4

⏳ decay drained -56.8 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one