📈 Traditional auto OEMs collapse into mega-mergers

⚖ Why this verdict

fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set

1. Window: 2025-01-04 → 2026-01-04 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
2. The call: ▼ SHORT STLA (primary play). STLA fell 4.4% over the window → direction-adjusted R = +4.4% (the call made money).
3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +16.1% → α = +4.4 − (+16.1) = -11.7% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
   Stock-selection read: +20.5% — did STLA move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
4. Rule fired:
   · HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5

   · PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0

   ▶ MISS — everything else
5. Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath, Gavin Baker, Jason

each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Chamath w=0.84

2 scoring events · 58% of moves

+38.3 → net +38.3

Gavin Baker w=1.33 regular guest ×1.0

1 scoring event · 30% of moves

+19.9 → net +19.9

Jason w=0.97

1 scoring event · 12% of moves

+8.1 → net +8.1

⏳ decay drained -55.8 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one