+0.0
net board stance
what this means
144.51
-0.7% · close 2026-09-08
+144% / +203% / +482%
1m / 3m / 12m
-94%
vs SPY since 2022-09-10
80%
of 52w range · -17.1% off high
1/3
hit rate as primary · α +18
Where we stand — 0 live ideas
No active idea holds this ticker. Anything below is history.
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from
score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
Track record on MRNA
As a PRIMARY play the besties are 1 hit / 1 partial / 1 miss over 3 closed windows — credit 0.5, average α +18.5. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.
| idea | call | play | verdict | R | α | closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 📈 Boosters become routine — recurring revenue for the mRNA vaccine makers | ▲ LONG | primary | MISS | -28.5% | -37.0 | 2022-01-16 |
| 📈 COVID vaccine reckoning collapses trust in vaccination | ▼ SHORT | adjacent | HIT | +34.0% | +12.1 | 2024-01-27 |
| 🤖 In-vivo CRISPR proof point starts programmable biology | ▲ LONG | adjacent | MISS | -54.4% | -49.6 | 2022-07-30 |
| 🌍 Vaccines ship in Q4 2020 | ▲ LONG | primary | HIT | +116.6% | +96.7 | 2020-12-20 |
| 📈 Boosters + oral antivirals become the standard COVID stack | ▲ LONG | adjacent | HIT | +21.8% | +26.6 | 2022-07-30 |
| 🏛️ Biological Patriot Act: vaccine passports and private mandates arrive and get upheld | ▲ LONG | primary | PARTIAL | +10.5% | -4.2 | 2022-03-06 |
| 📈 EBV-causes-MS proof turns Epstein-Barr into a funded therapeutic target | ▲ LONG | adjacent | MISS | -73.9% | -62.6 | 2023-01-15 |
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding MRNA, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
The reason why they are off so much is because of a massive drop in demand for PaxLavit and for COVID boosters. Apparently, people do not see the value in those products. ... I would say that the company is also suffering from a credibility crisis by not leveling with the public about the efficacy and safety of their vaccines.
Why can't we have an authentic postmortem about the efficacy of the Covid vaccine without being shamed?
We were injected with an experimental mRNA treatment because we got hoodwinked by the media into thinking it would prevent us from ever getting Covid, which it did not do. Two months later, I got Delta variant.
But we ran something through and we allowed it to be labeled a word that misappropriates what it is. It's not a vaccine. And the problem with that is that it now makes people mistrust the measles, mumps and rubella vaccine. That's crazy. You shouldn't mistrust the MMR vaccine or DTaP. But because those things are lumped in with the same thing as a Covid vaccine that is at best 30 or 40 percent efficacious, we have these problems.
Now, I don't know if he was right about those vaccines, but I do know that he's right in the case of COVID. They had an incentive to push this dubious mRNA shot on us so that we get boosted a zillion times.
I'm not getting boosted again, no.
because of all this, it probably is reasonable to take a step back and have a commission that just uncovers all of this stuff
You know, you start to question. I think we will start to see people question whether those are appropriate.
one of the costs of this policy is going to be that people will stop trusting vaccination in general
I think that over the long run, we can get the cost of cell therapies below 5,000 bucks. ... And this is kind of the beginning of what will likely be a multi-decade kind of new therapeutic modality that's, you know, accelerating.
including what we talked about a few weeks ago, multiple sclerosis, given that we now have a strong belief that if you can get rid of the EBV, the Epstein-Barr virus, from your body, you can wipe that out. So CAR-T can in the long run be harnessed not just for cancer, but autoimmunity
And there are a lot of therapies that are underway right now to actually use gene editing to induce that mutation in people's blood cells and in their bone marrow without needing to give them a whole transplant. ... there are hundreds of cell-based therapies coming to market over the next few years, they're all in late stage clinical trials as well as gene editing.
Now that we have gene editing and potentially have the ability to grow biological matter in bioreactors, it's going to be tremendous.
two-thirds of the adult population under the age of 55 have herpes simplex 4 So you're literally talking about inoculating the entire world. ... And when we start to think about that grand of a scale, there's a cost issue, there's a manufacturability issue, and then there's an ROI issue that unfortunately will be adjudicated.
But if Epstein-Barr virus is in fact causing this problem with MS, there's a reason to go after it, a lot of money to go after it. ... But this paper has such incredible data and such strong signal that it's really going to catalyze investment.
You've now got the unvaccinated treated as some sort of untouchable class of citizens who aren't able to leave their house except to buy food and medicine. ... Boston just announced they're banning unvaccinated people from going to all restaurants, bars, nightclubs, sport arenas, fitness centers, movie theaters and on and on it goes.
Well, you know, I originally had the CRISPR gene in anything, but Chamath already mentioned that.
My best science breakthrough is that this year, we actually were able to inject in vivo, so in the body genetic code for CRISPR. ... That's pretty incredible stuff that you can make something, put it into your body, and then your body does the work of editing out the bad genes.
I would be very cautious about the side effects that are going to arise from these protease inhibitors. ... I think as more people use them, you'll see more crazy stories about side effects that are really significantly adverse.
These new pills have, I think, a very good shot of doing it next year because they're protease inhibitors. ... I am hopeful that this will be the thing, hopefully, that ends the pandemic next year, are these new antiviral pills.
And now the floodgates are open. And this is incredible because the frontiers in RNA over the next decade could change the course of how we treat disease and change the course of outcomes for many diseases, from genetic diseases all the way through to cancers. ... we've now got, I think, a validation in the market and acceptance from consumers that this technology could transform the industry in the same way that Genentech transformed the pharma industry with biologic drugs in the 80s and 90s.
But it's certainly the case that this is not a one strain, one shot and done pandemic. This is an endemic circumstance. We're going to be in this for a while.
the little stupid vax card that you have to show everywhere to get like popcorn at a movie theater like, you know, in San Francisco. It doesn't do anything because vaccinated people can spread it too. So that doesn't do anything.
It'll be a seasonal disease and it'll be something like the flu in terms of how it cycles each year. And it seems unlikely that it's going to be eradicated through vaccination.
The only thing that seems to work is vaccines and booster shots. There's some good data around the third data, the third booster preventing serious cases.