+0.0
net board stance
what this means
213.48
-3.3% · close 2026-09-08
+3% / +7% / +51%
1m / 3m / 12m
-85%
vs SPY since 2022-02-24
88%
of 52w range · -4.9% off high
0/1
hit rate as primary · α -36
Where we stand — 0 live ideas
No active idea holds this ticker. Anything below is history.
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from
score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
Track record on BIIB
As a PRIMARY play the besties are 0 hit / 0 partial / 1 miss over 1 closed window — credit 0.0, average α -36.0. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.
| idea | call | play | verdict | R | α | closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 📈 Alzheimer's amyloid hypothesis was built on fraud - the anti-amyloid franchise busts | ▼ SHORT | primary | MISS | -23.3% | -36.0 | 2023-07-29 |
| 📈 FDA's loosened approval bar creates markets — capital floods the biotech complex | ▲ LONG | adjacent | MISS | -53.7% | -43.0 | 2022-06-13 |
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding BIIB, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
No, what I'm saying is the NIH budget per year for Alzheimer's and dementia is 1.9 billion. Half of it, if you look at the tags, if you just search the tags, half the money has gone into Alzheimer's disease, amyloid beta.
And now the drug is in the market. Biogen gets approval and people start taking it. And we're seeing the data. It doesn't work. And no one wants to use it. So the market has collapsed and you kind of go back to the origin.
roughly one third of public biotech stocks are trading below cash. ... But because the capital markets are gone now for them, or the assumption is, hey, there's not going to be any capital left
they really kind of struggled for years to find the right footing of what's the right business model and the right product and the FDA kind of struggled with approving this stuff. And then boom, COVID hit. ... I think there's now a few, a handful of these RNA interference products that have been approved by the FDA. And we're now starting to see many more of these cancer and immunotherapy drugs start to get approved as RNA therapies.
But going to the sort of larger issue of FDA approval, I would make it a little bit easier to get drugs approved. I mean, look, I think that double-blind test is the gold standard. If the drug clearly doesn't work, you don't approve it. But this is a case where the evidence is a little bit inconclusive.
Companies are going to rush in, they're going to try and get 10 things approved. Everyone's going to be taking an Alzheimer's drug in a couple of years because there's going to be so many available on the market. And none of them may actually be curing Alzheimer's.
they applied an extremely aggressive free market approach to a market that has been completely bereft of solutions. ... And so if you can create a hundred billion dollar market overnight, I think it stands to reason that a lot of people will look at the increase in Biogen's market cap and the profits that Biogen can make over the next 10 or 15 years and say, I will attack that and do that cheaper, faster, better. It happens in every other market.