🏦 State-government financing stress surfaces in 2026

Friedberg rates w=0.79 · n=14 · E257 (2026-01-10) · annual_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 40:55 SUPPORT · horizon 12mo

“state governments are going to have a real problem with finding financing ... folks are going to wake up and be like, holy s**t, there is a ginormous hole in these states and their obligations.”

Friedberg rates w=0.79 · n=14 · E258 (2026-01-17) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 40:59 SUPPORT

“in California we're looking at a 30 billion a year deficit. We've got 500 billion of debt and we have a nearly one trillion dollar pension obligation that is not funded. That money is going to come from somewhere or it is not going to get paid. ... everyone is looking for a place to go.”

Sacks rates w=1.08 · n=12 · E258 (2026-01-17) · positioning · strength 2 ▶ 48:10 SUPPORT

“I'd rather have an internet issue and keep 100% of my money than lose 5% plus 13.3 per year. ... I do think it's probably slightly more likely than not to pass. Once ... when a state shows you who they are, believe them the first time. This is the direction of travel in California,”

Chamath rates w=0.88 · n=16 · E258 (2026-01-17) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 48:11 SUPPORT

“California will go through tremendous pain... as long as there is a 49-51 kind of a balance, I don't think anything can really happen without meaningfully deep austerity in California... in 28 or 30 or 32, this will rear its ugly head. It will be better architected and there will be no way around it.”

Friedberg rates w=0.79 · n=14 · E259 (2026-01-30) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:25:33 SUPPORT

“California has a trillion dollar fiscal cliff coming up because of the pension obligations. ... there's precedent in California state court that you cannot change pension benefits ... there are two ways that California can be saved. ... the state has the ability to declare bankruptcy. Everything else is all about how long are you keeping the state alive for.”

Chamath rates w=0.88 · n=16 · E264 (2026-03-13) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:10:30 SUPPORT

“The Hoover Institution basically ran this Monte Carlo simulation. ... in 71% of those runs it comes out with a negative NPV. ... that's what's happened just by making the threat. Washington had a 23 hour debate and passed the law. ... in 18 or 24 months, it'll be as bad or worse than California.”

Friedberg rates w=0.79 · n=14 · E279 (2026-07-03) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:21:48 SUPPORT

“California's state budget ballooned from 215 billion in 2019 to 355 billion today... there's somewhere between 20 and 40 billion of debt that they pencil away and call it a balanced budget... one to one and a half percent of personal income is leaving the state every year... out years, 2028-29, the projection is $40 billion a year in budget deficits... $1.4 trillion in public debt... unfunded pension liabilities... closer to $1.5 trillion... senior to the bonds of the state because of the California Rule... this state is on the brink of defaults that are going to be so significant that if the federal government was called in to bail them out... that's what the story will be over the next decade.”

Chamath rates w=0.88 · n=16 · E279 (2026-07-03) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:29:59 SUPPORT

“I think what will happen is that you will wipe out the California pensions and you'll wipe out the pension obligations and you'll do some sort of negotiated settlement... we're going to deal with the California bankruptcy in the next 10 years and it will unfortunately result in a complete restructuring of those debt and obligations.”