🪙 Stablecoins become the standard US payment rail and crush the card take rate

Chamath crypto w=1.00 · n=20 · E208 (2024-12-20) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 13:14 SUPPORT

“So the idea that you can take that 300 basis points you pay to these companies and crush it to zero would be a boon to global GDP, because that's 3% on many tens of trillions of dollars.”

Aaron Levie (regular guest ×1.0) crypto: 1 resolved, unproven · E208 (2024-12-20) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 14:13 SUPPORT

“So the stable coin being the intermediary for that in the future makes total sense if you could get everybody to kind of coordinate against that.”

Chamath crypto w=1.00 · n=20 · E216 (2025-02-21) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 7:49 SUPPORT

“Is there a moment guys where is it a regulatory event where you'll say the Visa Mastercard duopoly can get challenged?”

Patrick Collison (guest ×0.5) no crypto track record · E216 (2025-02-21) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 8:05 OPPOSE

“Card programs are not actually big profit pools for most of the major banks... And maybe other points in that space are viable, but it is a set of trade-offs, and it's not as simple as this enormous rent extraction happening.”

John Collison (guest ×0.5) no crypto track record · E216 (2025-02-21) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 19:23 OPPOSE

“I think stablecoins are going to be a big part of the solution. I actually don't think that's going to supplant all the consumer-facing networks. I think we're going to see consumer-facing networks built upon and substantially leverage these things.”

Jason crypto w=0.69 · n=13 · E217 (2025-03-01) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 27:15 SUPPORT · horizon 60mo

“I do think Stripe's main business could be, if we're sitting here in five years, Chamath, could be sitting on $300 billion and getting whatever it is, three, four, five percent on some coupon, right? They could be making $10, $20 billion in pure profit if they have a stable coin out there that gets widely adopted.”

Bo Hines (guest ×0.5) no crypto track record · E236 (2025-07-19) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 40:35 SUPPORT

“But Genius is unique because it really updates the payment rails inside of our current financial system. I mean, the payment rails have been archaic, and I've likened it to the fact of the ways in which we've communicated have changed quite dramatically over the course of the last several decades. The ways in which we move money really haven't, and we have the technology there in blockchain technology. So what we're doing here is we're fixing the plumbing of our financial system”