📈 Pediatric ADHD/antidepressant over-prescription becomes an opioid-style reckoning
Jason's call, backed by Chamath: the mass prescribing of amphetamines and antidepressants to children (teen antidepressant scripts +38% since 2015; schools pressuring parents) is a public-health scandal in the making that gets re-read the way the opioid crisis was — 'we're going to look at this like the opioid crisis, I guarantee it.' Chamath adds that over-prescribing operators are already being shut down and sanctioned, and discloses his own book in the non-drug alternative: Akili, an FDA-approved prescription video game for 8-11 year olds with ADHD (listed as AKLI at the time, since delisted, so it is not scoreable as a play). The tradeable read-through is regulatory, reputational and litigation pressure on the stimulant/CNS makers.
⚖ Why this result
fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2022-09-10 → 2023-09-10 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▼ SHORT TEVA (primary play). TEVA rose 2.8% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = -2.8% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +10.2%
→ vs SPY = -2.8 − (+10.2) = -12.9%
— what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
Direction-only read: +7.4% — did TEVA move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
- Rule fired:
· RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+· HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all▶ WRONG — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a WRONG earn 0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Chamath, Jason
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2022-09-10)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ SHORT | TEVA | stock | PRIMARY | largest US supplier of generic ADHD stimulants and antidepressants, and the company already carrying the opioid-settlement template the besties invoke by name — the most liquid proxy for the thesis |
| ▼ SHORT | SUPN | stock | adjacent | Supernus is the closest listed ADHD pure-play CNS pharma |
| ▼ SHORT | TAK | stock | adjacent | Takeda owns Vyvanse, the branded pediatric ADHD stimulant franchise |
Mention log newest first
“There is an epidemic right now of the over prescription of amphetamines to children who are diagnosed with ADHD. It's terrible. It is an enormously important issue that doesn't just touch kids anymore, but now also touches adults. You've seen a lot of really kind of bad companies that are over prescribing this stuff get shut down and get sanctioned.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -54.1 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E95 2022-09-10 | init | +42.0 | 42.0 | E95 born by Jason (explicit_prediction x3) |
| E95 2022-09-10 | reinforce | +13.1 | 55.0 | E95 Chamath support x2 (new voice) |
| E96 2022-09-17 | decay | -2.2 | 52.8 | E96 silent |
| E97 2022-09-23 | decay | -2.1 | 50.7 | E97 silent |
| E98 2022-10-01 | decay | -2.0 | 48.7 | E98 silent |
| E99 2022-10-07 | decay | -1.9 | 46.8 | E99 silent |
| E100 2022-10-14 | decay | -1.9 | 44.9 | E100 silent |
| E101 2022-10-22 | decay | -1.8 | 43.1 | E101 silent |
| E102 2022-10-29 | decay | -1.7 | 41.4 | E102 silent |
| E103 2022-11-05 | reinforce | +10.6 | 51.9 | E103 Chamath support x3 |
| E105 2022-11-19 | decay | -2.1 | 49.8 | E105 silent |
| E106 2022-12-03 | decay | -2.0 | 47.9 | E106 silent |
| E107 2022-12-10 | decay | -1.9 | 45.9 | E107 silent |
| E108 2022-12-16 | decay | -1.8 | 44.1 | E108 silent |
| E109 2022-12-24 | decay | -1.8 | 42.3 | E109 silent |
| E110 2023-01-06 | decay | -1.7 | 40.6 | E110 silent |
| E111 2023-01-13 | decay | -1.6 | 39.0 | E111 silent |
| E112 2023-01-20 | decay | -1.6 | 37.5 | E112 silent |
| E113 2023-01-27 | decay | -1.5 | 36.0 | E113 silent |
| E114 2023-02-04 | decay | -1.4 | 34.5 | E114 silent |
| E115 2023-02-11 | decay | -1.4 | 33.1 | E115 silent |
| E116 2023-02-17 | decay | -1.3 | 31.8 | E116 silent |
| E118 2023-03-03 | decay | -1.3 | 30.5 | E118 silent |
| E119 2023-03-11 | decay | -1.2 | 29.3 | E119 silent |
| E120 2023-03-17 | decay | -1.2 | 28.1 | E120 silent |
| E121 2023-03-24 | decay | -1.1 | 27.0 | E121 silent |
| E122 2023-03-31 | decay | -1.1 | 25.9 | E122 silent |
| E123 2023-04-07 | decay | -1.0 | 24.9 | E123 silent |
| E124 2023-04-14 | decay | -1.0 | 23.9 | E124 silent |
| E125 2023-04-21 | decay | -1.0 | 22.9 | E125 silent |
| E126 2023-04-28 | decay | -0.9 | 22.0 | E126 silent |
| E128 2023-05-12 | decay | -0.9 | 21.1 | E128 silent |
| E129 2023-05-19 | decay | -0.8 | 20.3 | E129 silent |
| E130 2023-05-26 | decay | -0.8 | 19.5 | E130 silent |
| E131 2023-06-02 | decay | -0.8 | 18.7 | E131 silent |
| E132 2023-06-10 | decay | -0.7 | 18.0 | E132 silent |
| E133 2023-06-16 | decay | -0.7 | 17.2 | E133 silent |
| E134 2023-06-24 | decay | -0.7 | 16.6 | E134 silent |
| E135 2023-07-01 | decay | -0.7 | 15.9 | E135 silent |
| E136 2023-07-09 | decay | -0.6 | 15.3 | E136 silent |
| E137 2023-07-14 | decay | -0.6 | 14.6 | E137 silent |
| E139 2023-07-27 | decay | -0.6 | 14.1 | E139 silent |
| E140 2023-08-04 | decay | -0.6 | 13.5 | E140 silent |
| E141 2023-08-11 | decay | -0.5 | 13.0 | E141 silent |
| E142 2023-08-18 | decay | -0.5 | 12.4 | E142 silent |
| E143 2023-08-25 | decay | -0.5 | 11.9 | E143 silent |
| E144 2023-09-01 | decay | -0.5 | 11.5 | E144 silent |