🏛️ A second Trump term reflates growth via deregulation and lower corporate tax

Donald Trump (guest ×0.5) no politics-market track record · E184 (2024-06-20) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 2:25 SUPPORT

“And we got it down to 21%, we'd like to get it down lower, actually, but we got it down and the revenues were better than ever.”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E184 (2024-06-20) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:04:14 SUPPORT

“He clearly favors a pro-growth agenda. He wants to keep taxes low and reasonable. He wants to reduce regulations.”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E199 (2024-10-11) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 50:22 SUPPORT

“If you have Trump in office next year, I think that there will be an opening up of M&A.”

Jason politics-market w=1.00 · n=62 · E199 (2024-10-11) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 51:26 SUPPORT

“I am going to be printing money in a Trump administration. It is going to be obscene how many M&A deals and IPOs are going to occur. There is such a huge backlog.”

Chamath politics-market w=1.02 · n=96 · E201 (2024-10-25) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 50:46 SUPPORT

“the Trump package, whether we agree with him or not, is viewed as more stimulative to long-term economic growth”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E201 (2024-10-25) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 52:52 SUPPORT

“by cutting government, you actually unlock resources that could be used by the private sector”

Chamath politics-market w=1.02 · n=96 · E202 (2024-11-01) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 9:03 SUPPORT

“So I think that if you normalize on that view of the world, I think the cuts that Elon will affect will be meaningful and necessary.”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E202 (2024-11-01) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 26:38 SUPPORT

“So, I tend to think that the real economy will perform better with a smaller government.”

Friedberg politics-market w=0.84 · n=74 · E203 (2024-11-08) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:26:09 SUPPORT

“And if that case carries through and is allowed to be used to support the efforts to deregulate or to de-agency, what you call kind of the bureaucracy, I think it enables a lot of the change that folks are looking for.”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E203 (2024-11-08) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:24:10 SUPPORT

“And the big question of Trump's second term will be whether he can finally subdue this bureaucracy and bring it under democratic control, under the control of the executive branch, as the American people want.”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E204 (2024-11-16) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 33:51 SUPPORT

“Well, there's no question that in general, President Trump wants to have the most vibrant economy we can have. And I think to that end, you're going to see the end of this era of deceleration, and of regulatory capture, and lawfare. I think all those things are over. I think that equities that have been straining or tamped down under the weight of these abuses, you see them ripping now.”

Friedberg politics-market w=0.84 · n=74 · E204 (2024-11-16) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 26:40 SUPPORT

“If under Trump and the Republican control of the House and Senate, laws don't pass and regulations get reduced, theoretically, earnings are going to rip and you should pay a higher multiple today because you're actually buying these things at eight to ten times earnings five years from now.”

Friedberg politics-market w=0.84 · n=74 · E205 (2024-11-23) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 43:16 SUPPORT

“Look, if the federal budget gets to $3 trillion and regulation gets cut, if you get 50% of the regulations in federal agencies cut, I think you unleash an economic sonic boom. I'm all in on DOGE.”

Chamath politics-market w=1.02 · n=96 · E205 (2024-11-23) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 20:09 SUPPORT

“But the idea of just cutting this all the way down and then finding through that process what you actually need, I think can find America a hundred, two hundred basis points of GDP growth. It could be an economic renaissance.”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E205 (2024-11-23) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 9:11 SUPPORT

“I think that the expectations for DOGE right now are being set incredibly low by the media and by the Washington insiders. And I think there are good reasons to believe that the results will surpass those low expectations.”

Jason politics-market w=1.00 · n=62 · E205 (2024-11-23) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 43:34 SUPPORT

“I think it's the greatest thing that could ever happen.”

Gavin Baker (regular guest ×1.0) politics-market w=1.50 · n=5 · E206 (2024-12-07) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 4:43 SUPPORT

“So I just think deregulation and simplifying regulations and the tax code is going to lead to an immense amount of growth”

Joe Lonsdale (regular guest ×1.0) politics-market w=1.00 · n=5 · E206 (2024-12-07) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 7:28 SUPPORT

“I think almost all reasonable Americans can see that our growth is ridiculously constrained”

Chamath politics-market w=1.02 · n=96 · E207 (2024-12-13) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 14:53 SUPPORT

“I think that the United States economy is too complicated to be managed by theoreticians, by folks with random PhDs and absolutely no working experience in the real world. And when you bring those people in to oversee those PhDs, I think you probably get better outcomes.”

Aaron Levie (regular guest ×1.0) politics-market: 3 resolved, unproven · E208 (2024-12-20) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 44:43 SUPPORT

“there's actually this total combination of actually fewer regulations. You'll spend less money in government. You'll actually grow the economy faster, which will create more jobs.”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E212 (2025-01-25) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 1:52:37 SUPPORT POLICY-ADJACENT

“So the number one thing that that EO does is rescind the Biden EO, which we talked about in this podcast, I don't know how many episodes ago, but you remember it was this 100-page monstrosity of burdensome regulation.”

Chamath politics-market w=1.02 · n=96 · E212 (2025-01-25) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 16:03 SUPPORT

“And what I saw was a very broad-based embrace of business people, because I think that the president understands how important it is to make sure that economically, America is just firing on all cylinders.”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E215 (2025-02-15) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 27:58 SUPPORT POLICY-ADJACENT

“And by the way, that language about dominating AI and winning the global race, that is in President Trump's executive order from week one. So this is very much elaborating on the official policy of this administration.”

Friedberg politics-market w=0.84 · n=74 · E221 (2025-03-29) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 36:47 SUPPORT

“Well, I think the proposal that I've heard from this administration that we heard from Howard Lutnick when we met with him was they're going to cut all taxes for people making less than $150,000 a year, so get the tax rate to zero.”

Gavin Baker (regular guest ×1.0) politics-market w=1.50 · n=5 · E221 (2025-03-29) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 33:05 SUPPORT

“One thing everyone agrees on is deregulation is good. So every time they say the word tariff, they need to say the word deregulation two or three times.”

Chamath politics-market w=1.02 · n=96 · E226 (2025-05-02) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 41:41 SUPPORT

“This past week, Besson said that the tax bill will allow you to fully deduct all the PPE and all of the incidental costs of building a factory... The point is, that thing would create an absolute economic bonanza if it were to get passed.”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E226 (2025-05-02) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 16:13 SUPPORT POLICY-ADJACENT

“But I do think that this sets us up for a Trump boom in the future. It's just that a lot of these changes take time to play out.”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E229 (2025-05-24) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 34:19 SUPPORT POLICY-ADJACENT

“This bill passed by one vote margin. It was hanging on by a thread. And if it failed, you get basically hundreds of billions of tax increases, which we don't need right now.”