📈 Accelerated depreciation makes capital equipment the hot asset
100% year-one write-offs from the tax bill are firing demand for capital equipment — tractors, generators, turbines ('this is why Siemens stock is through the roof') — fueling a US infrastructure buildout.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 42.1 EMBER
EMBER
band
▲ LONG CAT
expression · bullish equities
RIGHT
result · return +94.2% · vs SPY +74.2%
2026-09-07
born 2025-09-07 (E242) → window closed
other ideas on the same ticker, same direction: Natural gas powers the AI datacenter buildout 48 (CAT)
⚖ Why this result
fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2025-09-07 → 2026-09-07 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG CAT (primary play). CAT rose 94.2% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = +94.2% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +20.0% → vs SPY = +94.2 − (+20.0) = +74.2% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
- Rule fired:
▶ RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+ ✓ (return 94.2, vs SPY 74.2)· HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all· WRONG — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a RIGHT earn 1.0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Chamath, Sacks | proxy-sensitive: SIEGY→PARTIAL (+16.4%)
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2025-09-07)
Plays
Mention log newest first
Chamath
equities 42% · n=163
· E271 (2026-05-01) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 43:30
SUPPORT
“going to look like this big bulky industrial business in five years. I'm not sure that there's a good valuation case ... to just follow the dollars, like a trillion dollars a year going out of the hyperscalers. Where is it going? Just follow those dollars and buy those companies because those companies are already underpriced.”
Sacks
equities 44% · n=96
· E257 (2026-01-10) · annual_prediction · strength 1
▶ 1:14:11
SUPPORT
POLICY-ADJACENT
· horizon 12mo
“The category of assets that qualify for accelerated depreciation — capital equipment... there's now 100% accelerated depreciation because of the big beautiful bill... that is making those markets super hot right now. [Strength capped: administration official promoting the tax bill's effects.]”
Chamath
equities 42% · n=163
· E242 (2025-09-07) · positioning · strength 2
▶ 34:54
SUPPORT
“I am a person that started a business that is building a factory to make batteries in ... after the big, beautiful bill and because of tariffs, it is much easier now for me to underwrite. Why? Because I have 100% depreciation across all my capex. It's a complete changer on the IRR of these projects. ... Same thing for this data center that I'm building in Arizona. ... the underwriting case for putting a ton of money into the United States has changed to the positive”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -48.4 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E242 2025-09-07 | init | +30.0 | 30.0 | E242 born by Chamath (positioning x2) |
| E243 2025-09-19 | decay | -1.2 | 28.8 | E243 silent |
| E244 2025-09-27 | decay | -1.2 | 27.6 | E244 silent |
| E245 2025-10-03 | decay | -1.1 | 26.5 | E245 silent |
| E246 2025-10-10 | decay | -1.1 | 25.5 | E246 silent |
| E247 2025-10-17 | decay | -1.0 | 24.5 | E247 silent |
| E248 2025-10-24 | decay | -1.0 | 23.5 | E248 silent |
| E249 2025-10-31 | decay | -0.9 | 22.5 | E249 silent |
| E250 2025-11-07 | decay | -0.9 | 21.6 | E250 silent |
| E251 2025-11-14 | decay | -0.9 | 20.8 | E251 silent |
| E252 2025-11-22 | decay | -0.8 | 19.9 | E252 silent |
| E253 2025-12-06 | decay | -0.8 | 19.1 | E253 silent |
| E254 2025-12-13 | decay | -0.8 | 18.4 | E254 silent |
| E255 2025-12-19 | decay | -0.7 | 17.6 | E255 silent |
| E256 2025-12-31 | decay | -0.7 | 16.9 | E256 silent |
| E257 2026-01-10 | reinforce | +15.0 | 31.9 | E257 Sacks support x1 (new voice) |
| E257 2026-01-10 | reinforce | +10.2 | 42.1 | E257 Chamath support x2 |
| E258 2026-01-17 | decay | -1.7 | 40.4 | E258 silent |
| E259 2026-01-30 | decay | -1.6 | 38.8 | E259 silent |
| E260 2026-02-07 | decay | -1.6 | 37.3 | E260 silent |
| E261 2026-02-13 | decay | -1.5 | 35.8 | E261 silent |
| E262 2026-02-28 | decay | -1.4 | 34.3 | E262 silent |
| E263 2026-03-06 | decay | -1.4 | 33.0 | E263 silent |
| E264 2026-03-13 | decay | -1.3 | 31.6 | E264 silent |
| E265 2026-03-19 | decay | -1.3 | 30.4 | E265 silent |
| E266 2026-03-27 | decay | -1.2 | 29.2 | E266 silent |
| E267 2026-04-03 | decay | -1.2 | 28.0 | E267 silent |
| E268 2026-04-10 | decay | -1.1 | 26.9 | E268 silent |
| E269 2026-04-17 | decay | -1.1 | 25.8 | E269 silent |
| E270 2026-04-24 | decay | -1.0 | 24.8 | E270 silent |
| E271 2026-05-01 | reinforce | +11.3 | 36.1 | E271 Chamath support x2 |
| E272 2026-05-08 | decay | -1.4 | 34.6 | E272 silent |
| E273 2026-05-15 | decay | -1.4 | 33.2 | E273 silent |
| E274 2026-05-22 | decay | -1.3 | 31.9 | E274 silent |
| E275 2026-05-29 | decay | -1.3 | 30.6 | E275 silent |
| E276 2026-06-13 | decay | -1.2 | 29.4 | E276 silent |
| E277 2026-06-19 | decay | -1.2 | 28.2 | E277 silent |
| E278 2026-06-26 | decay | -1.1 | 27.1 | E278 silent |
| E279 2026-07-03 | decay | -1.1 | 26.0 | E279 silent |
| E280 2026-07-11 | decay | -1.0 | 25.0 | E280 silent |
| E281 2026-07-18 | decay | -1.0 | 24.0 | E281 silent |
| E282 2026-07-24 | decay | -1.0 | 23.0 | E282 silent |
| E283 2026-07-31 | decay | -0.9 | 22.1 | E283 silent |
| E284 2026-08-08 | decay | -0.9 | 21.2 | E284 silent |
| E285 2026-08-14 | decay | -0.8 | 20.4 | E285 silent |
| E286 2026-08-21 | decay | -0.8 | 19.5 | E286 silent |
| E287 2026-08-29 | decay | -0.8 | 18.8 | E287 silent |
| E288 2026-09-04 | decay | -0.8 | 18.0 | E288 silent |