📈 Amazon is exceptionally cheap against the consumer surplus Prime delivers
Prime saves the average member roughly $630 a year across 200M members, about $126B of annual consumer value created, so Amazon's market cap is only ~13x one year of the savings it delivers to customers — a cheap multiple on the value it creates.
other ideas on the same ticker, same direction: Enterprise AI sovereignty: workloads leave frontier APIs for private stacks 94 (AMZN) · Own AWS, Azure and GCP and nothing else — the clouds capture the AI application dollars 48 (AMZN) · Amazon as a long-term compounding hold 27 (AMZN) · Independent frontier-model labs lose to hyperscaler capital 18 (AMZN)
⚖ Why this result
fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2021-04-17 → 2022-04-17 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG AMZN (primary play). AMZN fell 10.0% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = -10.0% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +6.8% → vs SPY = -10.0 − (+6.8) = -16.9% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
- Rule fired:
· RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+· HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all▶ WRONG — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a WRONG earn 0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Chamath
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2021-04-17)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | AMZN | stock | PRIMARY | the valuation claim is directly on Amazon equity |
Mention log newest first
Who built this conviction
each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -16.8 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E29 2021-04-17 | init | +20.0 | 20.0 | E29 born by Chamath (sentiment x2) |
| E30 2021-04-23 | decay | -0.8 | 19.2 | E30 silent |
| E31 2021-05-01 | decay | -0.8 | 18.4 | E31 silent |
| E32 2021-05-13 | decay | -0.7 | 17.7 | E32 silent |
| E33 2021-05-22 | decay | -0.7 | 17.0 | E33 silent |
| E34 2021-05-31 | decay | -0.7 | 16.3 | E34 silent |
| E35 2021-06-13 | decay | -0.7 | 15.7 | E35 silent |
| E36 2021-06-18 | decay | -0.6 | 15.0 | E36 silent |
| E37 2021-06-25 | decay | -0.6 | 14.4 | E37 silent |
| E38 2021-07-03 | decay | -0.6 | 13.9 | E38 silent |
| E39 2021-07-09 | decay | -0.6 | 13.3 | E39 silent |
| E40 2021-07-16 | decay | -0.5 | 12.8 | E40 silent |
| E41 2021-07-23 | decay | -0.5 | 12.3 | E41 silent |
| E42 2021-07-30 | decay | -0.5 | 11.8 | E42 silent |
| E43 2021-08-06 | decay | -0.5 | 11.3 | E43 silent |
| E44 2021-08-28 | decay | -0.5 | 10.8 | E44 silent |
| E45 2021-09-04 | decay | -0.4 | 10.4 | E45 silent |
| E46 2021-09-14 | decay | -0.4 | 10.0 | E46 silent |
| E47 2021-09-18 | decay | -0.4 | 9.6 | E47 silent |
| E49 2021-10-02 | decay | -0.4 | 9.2 | E49 silent |
| E50 2021-10-09 | decay | -0.4 | 8.8 | E50 silent |
| E51 2021-10-16 | decay | -0.4 | 8.5 | E51 silent |
| E52 2021-10-23 | decay | -0.3 | 8.1 | E52 silent |
| E53 2021-10-30 | decay | -0.3 | 7.8 | E53 silent |
| E54 2021-11-06 | decay | -0.3 | 7.5 | E54 silent |
| E55 2021-11-13 | decay | -0.3 | 7.2 | E55 silent |
| E56 2021-11-20 | decay | -0.3 | 6.9 | E56 silent |
| E57 2021-12-04 | decay | -0.3 | 6.6 | E57 silent |
| E58 2021-12-11 | decay | -0.3 | 6.4 | E58 silent |
| E59 2021-12-17 | decay | -0.3 | 6.1 | E59 silent |
| E60 2021-12-23 | decay | -0.2 | 5.9 | E60 silent |
| E61 2021-12-29 | decay | -0.2 | 5.6 | E61 silent |
| E62 2022-01-08 | decay | -0.2 | 5.4 | E62 silent |
| E63 2022-01-15 | decay | -0.2 | 5.2 | E63 silent |
| E64 2022-01-22 | decay | -0.2 | 5.0 | E64 silent |
| E65 2022-01-29 | decay | -0.2 | 4.8 | E65 silent |
| E66 2022-02-05 | decay | -0.2 | 4.6 | E66 silent |
| E67 2022-02-12 | decay | -0.2 | 4.4 | E67 silent |
| E68 2022-02-19 | decay | -0.2 | 4.2 | E68 silent |
| E70 2022-02-24 | decay | -0.2 | 4.1 | E70 silent |
| E71 2022-03-05 | decay | -0.2 | 3.9 | E71 silent |
| E72 2022-03-19 | decay | -0.2 | 3.8 | E72 silent |
| E73 2022-03-26 | decay | -0.1 | 3.6 | E73 silent |
| E74 2022-04-01 | decay | -0.1 | 3.5 | E74 silent |
| E75 2022-04-09 | decay | -0.1 | 3.3 | E75 silent |
| E76 2022-04-16 | decay | -0.1 | 3.2 | E76 silent |