+0.0
net board stance
what this means
16.13
-3.5% · close 2026-09-08
-8% / +16% / -9%
1m / 3m / 12m
-163%
vs SPY since 2021-07-03
29%
of 52w range · -34.4% off high
1/1
hit rate as primary · α +54
Where we stand — 0 live ideas
No active idea holds this ticker. Anything below is history.
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from
score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
Track record on LYFT
As a PRIMARY play the besties are 1 hit / 0 partial / 0 miss over 1 closed window — credit 1.0, average α +53.8. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.
| idea | call | play | verdict | R | α | closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 📈 The negative-unit-economics growth playbook dies with free capital | ▼ SHORT | primary | HIT | +59.9% | +53.8 | 2023-05-23 |
| 📈 Prop 22 IC+ model becomes the national gig-work architecture | ▲ LONG | adjacent | PARTIAL | +10.4% | -27.4 | 2021-11-04 |
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding LYFT, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
And then Uber, I put in my second. They need to do another riff. They need to cut some expenses, but they too are hitting the free cash flow and the network effects.
I just don't see anybody rewarding hyper growth that is burning a ton of cash where you have to be back in market every year
And at this point, you should have enough scale that you should be able to earn. And if you cannot, the market will punish you for it. And that's certainly what seems to be the incentive and the pressure on the buy side to the executives across all these organizations today.
Free capital hurt good companies from being great companies. They hired too many people. Their margins were too low. You know, SoftBank funding all of these rideshare companies around the world to compete with Uber meant that Uber, even though they were a market leader, did not have market leadership economics. And so the ringing out of the system of that excess, that grift, that stupidity, that's going to be good for the fundamentals of these business. But the transition from, you know, that low rate environment to the high rate of our it's dislocating for investors. It's dislocating for management at these companies. And it's going to be this. This is not, you know, a six month phenomenon. We're going to have two years of ringing out, right?
And when you then have a downturn and capital is not so available, you have to build your business in a much more capital efficient way. And you can't create fake businesses where you're buying growth that's not economically justified, where you've got negative unit economics around the growth. So I think that this downturn is going to create a shakeout.
And the problem in that model is that by giving you so much money, capital becomes your primary asset as a business. And capital needs to be the fuel that enables your assets as a business to accelerate. But as soon as capital itself becomes your primary asset, the business is doomed to fail.
For a decade, what that money did was it made those businesses what we call the consumer surplus. ... You're getting subsidized rides, you're getting subsidized food delivery, you're getting some subsidized form of content. And there are these consumer surplus businesses that abound right now, that still exist
And you tweeted last week, and I noticed it because Jason and I may have a little something on the line here, you know, with respect to Uber for the first time you tweeted after their quarterly earnings, maybe we're starting to see network effects show up at Uber. ... I mean, Lips said on their call that they were going to continue subsidizing. In fact, they're going to increase their coupons.
BI
Bill Gurley
support ×2
▼ on
📈 The negative-unit-economics growth playbook dies with free capital
E81 · 2022-05-23
▶ 45:30
It all depends on whether you can reign it back in or not. ... I think if 50 entrepreneurs try that trick, 49 are going to auger in.
BI
Bill Gurley
support ×2
▲ on
📈 Prop 22 IC+ model becomes the national gig-work architecture
E44 · 2021-08-28
▶ 1:06:01
There's one big issue that I don't think is talked about enough, which is, if you poll the drivers, they're not looking for any changes. They're really happy with the flexible work product. If you look at the voters of California, they stepped up and voted and made it very clear.
And here you have the government basically trying to take away and prohibit freelance work, flexible hours, gig type jobs. ... And now you got this activist judge basically, you know, inventing these specious grounds for overturning Prop 22, which is what the people want. So it's ridiculous.
Then this court ruling basically in the appeals court overruled the constitutionality of some elements of Prop 22, which brings into question whether that Prop 22 is actually going to hold in California. ... Because when you have to start treating those people like employees, the flexibility and freedom that those marketplaces enable stalls out, as we're already seeing. So it's super nasty.
You're going to see if Prop 22 passes, which I think it will tonight, it's going to be the architecture that New York and many other states follow. They're certainly not going to follow the disastrous AB5 example.