+0.0
net board stance
what this means
17.66
+0.1% · close 2026-09-08
+5% / +18% / +2%
1m / 3m / 12m
-32%
vs SPY since 2023-10-27
99%
of 52w range · -0.4% off high
0/1
hit rate as primary · α -130
Where we stand — 0 live ideas
No active idea holds this ticker. Anything below is history.
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from
score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
Track record on HTGC
As a PRIMARY play the besties are 0 hit / 0 partial / 1 miss over 1 closed window — credit 0.0, average α -129.5. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.
| idea | call | play | verdict | R | α | closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 📈 Venture debt's loss models break - deferred defaults land on the lenders | ▼ SHORT | primary | MISS | -78.5% | -129.5 | 2025-02-04 |
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding HTGC, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
Sacks
support ×2
▼ on
📈 Venture debt's loss models break - deferred defaults land on the lenders
E120 · 2023-03-17
▶ 26:08
Moreover, I always try to talk founders out of taking venture debt, whether from SVB or elsewhere.
Jason
support ×2
▼ on
📈 Venture debt's loss models break - deferred defaults land on the lenders
E119 · 2023-03-11
▶ 31:06
And this is exactly what happened in 2008, when people started giving those no recourse or no background check mortgages. Remember those? Where like you didn't have to do a background check to get a mortgage? That's what happened in venture. They just gave these, I saw it firsthand, willy-nilly.
Friedberg
oppose ×3
▼ on
📈 Venture debt's loss models break - deferred defaults land on the lenders
E119 · 2023-03-11
▶ 25:06
I get it, but the asset as an asset class, we can make fun of it all we want. It's actually performed pretty well. These guys have generated typically 18% as an industry kind of returns.
Sacks
support ×3
▼ on
📈 Venture debt's loss models break - deferred defaults land on the lenders
E119 · 2023-03-11
▶ 1:14:16
So after the conversation we had on the show about venture debt, I'm like, I don't really like that SVB is in this business. So I told my guys, set up an account somewhere else.
Sacks
support ×3
▼ on
📈 Venture debt's loss models break - deferred defaults land on the lenders
E114 · 2023-02-04
▶ 55:54
So look, I just wonder what I don't trust is whether the return models on venture debt that were created over the last five to 10 years will be a good predictor of what the returns will be in the next five to 10 years when a lot of the mortality that should have happened in the past now happens in the future.
Jason
support ×2
▼ on
📈 Venture debt's loss models break - deferred defaults land on the lenders
E114 · 2023-02-04
▶ 51:50
On top of all this inefficiency is a dependence on venture debt. I don't know if you're seeing this, Sacks, but the amount of focus on adding debt to unprofitable companies over the last five years has been just extraordinary.