🏛️ Ukraine ceasefire is weeks away — markets rally on the deal
Chamath's read that both sides have publicly narrowed a ceasefire to three or four points, so a deal lands within two to three weeks and the escalating rhetoric is end-stage negotiating theatre; equities re-rate higher as the war risk premium comes out. Sacks takes the other side: with Washington applying no pressure and both belligerents incentivised to stall for battlefield leverage, no deal gets done and the market gives back the peace-hope rally and then some.
⚖ Why this result
fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2022-03-19 → 2022-06-19 — first mention + 3-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG SPY (primary play). SPY fell 17.3% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = -17.3% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned -17.3% → vs SPY = -17.3 − (-17.3) = +0.0% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses. (SPY is itself the primary here — scored on return alone.)
- Rule fired:
· RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+· HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all▶ WRONG — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a WRONG earn 0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Chamath | opposed: Sacks | benchmark-primary: scored on R alone | proxy-sensitive: EZU→PARTIAL (-13.4%)
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2022-03-19)
Plays
Mention log newest first
“I think it's going to go on for a long time. That's what General Milley testified. It could go on for years. I think it's going to become a permanent feature in the background of Biden's presidency.”
“if you think you're winning, you have an incentive to stall the peace process, to cement greater gains and get more leverage for those remaining details and negotiating points ... And so neither one of them, I think, left to their own devices can be fully trusted to make a deal.”
“if both of these two parties want to come to a ceasefire, which I think it does, we're probably much, much closer than anybody thinks ... I suspect, and I could be completely wrong, is that we're much closer to a ceasefire than anybody thinks. And I suspect that you could see something in the next two to three weeks.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -5.6 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E72 2022-03-19 | init | +42.0 | 42.0 | E72 born by Chamath (explicit_prediction x3) |
| E72 2022-03-19 | oppose | -12.0 | 30.0 | E72 Sacks opposes x2 |
| E73 2022-03-26 | decay | -1.2 | 28.8 | E73 silent |
| E74 2022-04-01 | decay | -1.2 | 27.6 | E74 silent |
| E75 2022-04-09 | oppose | -14.4 | 13.2 | E75 Sacks opposes x3 |
| E76 2022-04-16 | decay | -0.5 | 12.7 | E76 silent |
| E77 2022-04-23 | decay | -0.5 | 12.2 | E77 silent |
| E78 2022-04-30 | decay | -0.5 | 11.7 | E78 silent |
| E79 2022-05-07 | decay | -0.5 | 11.3 | E79 silent |
| E80 2022-05-13 | decay | -0.5 | 10.8 | E80 silent |
| E81 2022-05-23 | decay | -0.4 | 10.4 | E81 silent |
| E82 2022-05-24 | decay | -0.4 | 10.0 | E82 silent |