📈 Adobe takes the AI valuation retrade before Figma does

⚖ Why this verdict

fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set

1. Window: 2025-07-04 → 2026-07-04 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
2. The call: ▼ SHORT ADBE (primary play). ADBE fell 41.7% over the window → direction-adjusted R = +41.7% (the call made money).
3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +21.3% → α = +41.7 − (+21.3) = +20.4% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
   Stock-selection read: +63.0% — did ADBE move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
4. Rule fired:
   ▶ HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5 ✓ (R 41.7, α 20.4)

   · PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0

   · MISS — everything else
5. Credit: supporters of a HIT earn 1.0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath

each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Chamath w=0.84

1 scoring event · 100% of moves

+29.3 → net +29.3

⏳ decay drained -24.6 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one