📈 FTX's cap table is a who's-who of no diligence
Chamath's verdict on the published FTX investor list eight days after the collapse: it is not a who's who of VC, it is a who's who of firms that did no diligence whatsoever. His receipt is his own process - his firm was verbally walked through the business and never received financials - and Sacks' is that FTX's auditor was a firm advertising an address in the metaverse. The read-through is a second confidence hit on the venture-funded cohort on top of the mark reset, with more of these surfacing as capital stays expensive. Friedberg takes the other side on the merits: investors and LPs relied on audited financials that were fraudulently conveyed, so this is fraud rather than a failure of diligence.
other ideas on the same ticker, same direction: OpenAI's withheld cryptography results put public-key crypto wallets at risk 17 (COIN)
⚖ Why this result
fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2022-11-19 → 2023-11-19 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▼ SHORT IPO (primary play). IPO rose 27.1% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = -27.1% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +16.0%
→ vs SPY = -27.1 − (+16.0) = -43.1%
— what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
Direction-only read: -11.1% — did IPO move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
- Rule fired:
· RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+· HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all▶ WRONG — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a WRONG earn 0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Chamath, Friedberg, Jason, Sacks
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2022-11-19)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ SHORT | IPO | etf | PRIMARY | Renaissance IPO ETF is the listed basket of the venture-funded cohort whose diligence standard is the argument; FTX and Alameda are private and bankrupt and have no instrument |
| ▼ SHORT | COIN | stock | adjacent | the only liquid listed proxy for crypto counterparty and confidence risk after the FTX failure |
Mention log newest first
Who built this conviction
each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -64.2 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E105 2022-11-19 | init | +42.0 | 42.0 | E105 born by Chamath (explicit_prediction x3) |
| E105 2022-11-19 | reinforce | +13.1 | 55.0 | E105 Sacks support x2 (new voice) |
| E105 2022-11-19 | oppose | -12.0 | 43.0 | E105 Friedberg opposes x2 |
| E106 2022-12-03 | decay | -1.7 | 41.3 | E106 silent |
| E107 2022-12-10 | decay | -1.7 | 39.7 | E107 silent |
| E108 2022-12-16 | decay | -1.6 | 38.1 | E108 silent |
| E109 2022-12-24 | reinforce | +11.1 | 49.2 | E109 Friedberg support x3 (flipped from oppose) |
| E109 2022-12-24 | reinforce | +11.4 | 60.7 | E109 Jason support x2 (new voice) |
| E110 2023-01-06 | decay | -2.4 | 58.2 | E110 silent |
| E111 2023-01-13 | decay | -2.3 | 55.9 | E111 silent |
| E112 2023-01-20 | decay | -2.2 | 53.7 | E112 silent |
| E113 2023-01-27 | decay | -2.1 | 51.5 | E113 silent |
| E114 2023-02-04 | decay | -2.1 | 49.5 | E114 silent |
| E115 2023-02-11 | decay | -2.0 | 47.5 | E115 silent |
| E116 2023-02-17 | decay | -1.9 | 45.6 | E116 silent |
| E118 2023-03-03 | decay | -1.8 | 43.8 | E118 silent |
| E119 2023-03-11 | decay | -1.8 | 42.0 | E119 silent |
| E120 2023-03-17 | decay | -1.7 | 40.3 | E120 silent |
| E121 2023-03-24 | decay | -1.6 | 38.7 | E121 silent |
| E122 2023-03-31 | decay | -1.5 | 37.2 | E122 silent |
| E123 2023-04-07 | decay | -1.5 | 35.7 | E123 silent |
| E124 2023-04-14 | decay | -1.4 | 34.3 | E124 silent |
| E125 2023-04-21 | decay | -1.4 | 32.9 | E125 silent |
| E126 2023-04-28 | decay | -1.3 | 31.6 | E126 silent |
| E128 2023-05-12 | decay | -1.3 | 30.3 | E128 silent |
| E129 2023-05-19 | decay | -1.2 | 29.1 | E129 silent |
| E130 2023-05-26 | decay | -1.2 | 27.9 | E130 silent |
| E131 2023-06-02 | decay | -1.1 | 26.8 | E131 silent |
| E132 2023-06-10 | decay | -1.1 | 25.7 | E132 silent |
| E133 2023-06-16 | decay | -1.0 | 24.7 | E133 silent |
| E134 2023-06-24 | decay | -1.0 | 23.7 | E134 silent |
| E135 2023-07-01 | reinforce | +13.7 | 37.4 | E135 Chamath support x3 |
| E135 2023-07-01 | reinforce | +11.3 | 48.7 | E135 Jason support x3 |
| E136 2023-07-09 | decay | -1.9 | 46.8 | E136 silent |
| E137 2023-07-14 | decay | -1.9 | 44.9 | E137 silent |
| E139 2023-07-27 | decay | -1.8 | 43.1 | E139 silent |
| E140 2023-08-04 | decay | -1.7 | 41.4 | E140 silent |
| E141 2023-08-11 | decay | -1.7 | 39.7 | E141 silent |
| E142 2023-08-18 | decay | -1.6 | 38.1 | E142 silent |
| E143 2023-08-25 | decay | -1.5 | 36.6 | E143 silent |
| E144 2023-09-01 | decay | -1.5 | 35.1 | E144 silent |
| E146 2023-09-22 | decay | -1.4 | 33.7 | E146 silent |
| E147 2023-09-29 | decay | -1.3 | 32.4 | E147 silent |
| E148 2023-10-07 | decay | -1.3 | 31.1 | E148 silent |
| E149 2023-10-13 | decay | -1.2 | 29.8 | E149 silent |
| E150 2023-10-20 | decay | -1.2 | 28.7 | E150 silent |
| E151 2023-10-27 | decay | -1.1 | 27.5 | E151 silent |
| E152 2023-11-03 | decay | -1.1 | 26.4 | E152 silent |