⚡ Energy is overheated after 2022 and underperforms in 2023

⚖ Why this result

fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set

1. Window: 2023-01-06 → 2024-01-06 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
2. The call: ▼ SHORT XLE (primary play). XLE rose 0.3% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = -0.3% (the call lost money).
3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +22.4% → vs SPY = -0.3 − (+22.4) = -22.7% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
   Direction-only read: +22.1% — did XLE move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
4. Rule fired:
   · RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+

   · HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all

   ▶ WRONG — everything else
5. Credit: supporters of a WRONG earn 0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Chamath, Jason | opposed: Sacks

each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Jason 50%

2 scoring events · 66% of moves

+50.1 → net +50.1

Chamath 27%

1 scoring event · 18% of moves

+13.5 → net +13.5

Sacks 47%

1 scoring event · 16% of moves

+0.0 / -12.0 → net -12.0

⏳ decay drained -43.1 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one