🏛️ Closing the unregistered-foreign-importer loophole hits Amazon's 3P marketplace

⚖ Why this verdict

fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set

1. Window: 2025-05-02 → 2026-05-02 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
2. The call: ▼ SHORT AMZN (primary play). AMZN rose 41.2% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -41.2% (the call lost money).
3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +28.6% → α = -41.2 − (+28.6) = -69.8% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
   Stock-selection read: -12.6% — did AMZN move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
4. Rule fired:
   · HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5

   · PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0

   ▶ MISS — everything else
5. Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath, Ryan Petersen | proxy-sensitive: PDD→PARTIAL (+10.1%)

each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Chamath w=1.02

1 scoring event · 71% of moves

+35.7 → net +35.7

⏳ decay drained -41.9 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one