🤖 Apple makes huge AI gains in 2024 (contrarian)

Jason tech w=1.05 · n=56 · E160 (2024-01-06) · annual_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 50:02 SUPPORT · horizon 12mo

“I'm going to go with Apple as my contrarian belief. I think Apple is going to become a player in AI [by] the end of the year. Maybe they reboot Siri... they're not going to remain on the sidelines when it comes to AI.”

Jason tech w=1.05 · n=56 · E166 (2024-02-16) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 36:25 SUPPORT

“you're kind of going to see, I think, in iOS 18 or the next iPhone 16, they're going to have an image model baked onto that phone”

Chamath tech w=0.90 · n=83 · E166 (2024-02-16) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 36:44 OPPOSE

“Where is Apple in all of this? It's unbelievable.”

Friedberg tech w=1.08 · n=65 · E166 (2024-02-16) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 36:55 SUPPORT

“I think you're going to see a chip on the next set of mobile devices by Apple that will run models locally.”

Jason tech w=1.05 · n=56 · E168 (2024-03-01) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 1:24:32 SUPPORT

“The speculation is that they're going all in on AI. They just see that as a much better future.”

Chamath tech w=0.90 · n=83 · E168 (2024-03-01) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:23:44 OPPOSE

“I understand. I'm just saying it doesn't make a lot of sense that 2,000 employees that were specialized in building a car, all of a sudden now become the AI team.”

Sacks tech w=0.77 · n=53 · E168 (2024-03-01) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 1:24:41 SUPPORT

“Well, I think it's more core to what they do. The car never seemed that core.”

Jason tech w=1.05 · n=56 · E169 (2024-03-08) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:05:12 SUPPORT

“I think that's where they're going with their silicon. And they just announced the M3 on the MacBook Airs. Like, they're making their own silicon. And I think it's going to power LLMs locally on the devices. And that's so powerful.”

Sacks tech w=0.77 · n=53 · E169 (2024-03-08) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:04:53 SUPPORT

“if they could just make Siri work like the way it was supposed to using an LLM and have it be like snappy, that would be a major upgrade to the iPhone”

Chamath tech w=0.90 · n=83 · E171 (2024-03-22) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 24:39 OPPOSE

“I think it's them giving up. This is the most consequential new development in technology and compute in probably 20 years, 30 years. And so to be spending tens of billions of dollars of R&D and to not have enough allocated to this so that you have a legitimate path forward to do it yourself, I think is a little inexcusable actually.”

Friedberg tech w=1.08 · n=65 · E171 (2024-03-22) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 26:00 SUPPORT

“if Apple's doing the right thing, which I'm sure they are, they're probably building their own alternative platform here. They realize it's going to take them some time in the interim. They want to have a stopgap.”

Sacks tech w=0.77 · n=53 · E171 (2024-03-22) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 27:25 SUPPORT

“even if Google Gemini were great, you'd still want to invest in having your own thing because it's such a strategic technology. Why would you ever outsource it to your main competitor?”

Sacks tech w=0.77 · n=53 · E182 (2024-06-07) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:03:47 SUPPORT

“we kind of predicted that something like this could or should happen. We said that the big win for Apple in AI would be to make Siri actually work based on LLM”

Jason tech w=1.05 · n=56 · E182 (2024-06-07) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:04:54 SUPPORT

“There's a distinct reason to upgrade now. If you had a language model on your phone and Siri was like this super Siri that actually got stuff done, I would upgrade my phone immediately. And right now I skip two or three generations.”

Chamath tech w=0.90 · n=83 · E182 (2024-06-07) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:06:30 OPPOSE

“the idea that Apple with this thousand dollar device is all of a sudden going to figure out that this is why you're going to upgrade, I think is pretty speculative and I think they're going to be disappointed.”

Jason tech w=1.05 · n=56 · E183 (2024-06-14) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 40:03 SUPPORT

“And I think this means that Apple is going to win the AI consumer.”

Chamath tech w=0.90 · n=83 · E183 (2024-06-14) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 42:44 OPPOSE

“So if you just look at it sequentially, it's a little disappointing in that sense because for a company this big, it's really not much of anything.”

Sacks tech w=0.77 · n=53 · E183 (2024-06-14) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 47:09 SUPPORT

“the market definitely thinks so because Apple was up big on this news. And even if it was largely vaporware at this point, the market definitely liked where they were going.”

Sacks tech w=0.77 · n=53 · E187 (2024-07-12) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 34:53 SUPPORT

“The second one, I think, will be when Apple comes out with iPhone 16, you know, with LLM-powered Siri, assuming they do a decent job with that, it's going to lead to a huge upgrade cycle.”

Jason tech w=1.05 · n=56 · E197 (2024-09-27) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 49:38 SUPPORT

“It's pretty clear with this new one that you're going to be able to talk to Siri as an LLM like you do in ChatGPT mode, which I think means they will not make themself dependent on ChatGPT, and they will siphon off half the searches that would have gone to ChatGPT.”

Chamath tech w=0.90 · n=83 · E197 (2024-09-27) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 50:39 OPPOSE

“Siri is not very good, Jay Cal.”

Jason tech w=1.05 · n=56 · E207 (2024-12-13) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 45:25 REVERSAL

“You're not the only person. People are freaking out about the interface changes on Photos, crashing is a major thing, and Apple Intelligence just doesn't work. So it does seem, Keith, that Apple has gotten off their game of making polished stuff to race to try and, I guess, catch up to their perception of AI being a disruptive force at the interface level”

Keith Rabois (regular guest ×1.0) tech: 4 resolved, unproven · E207 (2024-12-13) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 53:15 OPPOSE

“And then playing on a field that's not favorable to them, which is there are advantages Apple has in AI, but there's some significant organizational structural disadvantages. And that's the field that people are going to be competing on for the next five years from a consumer perspective. And they're playing on a field where they don't have all the advantages in their favor.”