+0.0
net board stance
what this means
73.5
-3.0% · close 2026-09-08
-2% / +4% / -22%
1m / 3m / 12m
-21%
vs SPY since 2025-01-18
22%
of 52w range · -26.6% off high
2/4
hit rate as primary · α +19
Where we stand — 0 live ideas
No active idea holds this ticker. Anything below is history.
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from
score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
Track record on UBER
As a PRIMARY play the besties are 2 hit / 1 partial / 1 miss over 4 closed windows — credit 0.62, average α +18.6. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.
| idea | call | play | verdict | R | α | closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🤖 AI agents disintermediate consumer app interfaces | ▼ SHORT | adjacent | MISS | -59.8% | -69.5 | 2025-05-10 |
| 📈 Profitability plus buybacks is the setup for the tech turn | ▲ LONG | primary | HIT | +88.3% | +45.4 | 2024-10-27 |
| 🤖 Creator and gig income absorbs the labor force - participation stats understate earning power | ▲ LONG | adjacent | HIT | +90.7% | +74.5 | 2023-11-05 |
| 📈 Gig/supply platforms win 2023 as unemployment gets sticky | ▲ LONG | primary | HIT | +118.1% | +95.7 | 2024-01-06 |
| 📈 Prop 22 IC+ model becomes the national gig-work architecture | ▲ LONG | primary | PARTIAL | +10.4% | -27.4 | 2021-11-04 |
| 📈 Asset-light domestic services platforms are the tariff-immune trade | ▲ LONG | primary | MISS | -10.9% | -39.5 | 2026-05-02 |
| 📈 Uber-Expedia super-app cross-sell doesn't pencil | ▼ SHORT | adjacent | MISS | -35.4% | -50.5 | 2025-10-18 |
| 📈 Consumer comfort services (DoorDash, Airbnb, Uber) best asset of 2024 | ▲ LONG | adjacent | HIT | +77.7% | +50.6 | 2025-01-06 |
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding UBER, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
Now, I think it's pretty easy to imagine where this goes, which is you'll be able to connect an agent to all of your SaaS apps. So, it won't just be four applications, it'll now be connected to dozens of applications, including ones that already have your data. And it's going to know what actions it's possible to take in those apps.
All that matters to me is that Uber is the anti-tariff stock. It just does great. It's not impacted by tariffs. So here we go.
corporations have gotten religion around cost-cutting and austerity and increasing earnings
I think a much better way to think about this is in the future, none of this UI real estate is actually worth anything.
So I think this actually could work really well as a third tab in the app for travel.
you could kind of see yourself rationalizing this just from a financial basis that you're paying four times EBITDA to buy this thing
It's just a completely different state of mind. I just don't think that there's much opportunity to cross-sell that. Or to use the typical jargon, I don't think the attach rate is going to be high.
So it would just be a very bad capital allocation decision. Now, that's okay to get things wrong, but not for $30 billion wrong.
But with ambient computing, you can more kind of cleanly state your objective without this kind of directive process. You can say, hey, I want to say I want to have dinner in New York next Thursday at the Michelin star restaurant at 530 Book me something and it's done.
when you tell an AI agent, get me the cheapest car right now to go to XYZ place. It will go and look at Lyft and Uber and whatever. It'll provision the car and then it'll just tell you when it's coming.
To support your point and what Chamath was messaging on our chat, look at Walmart. Stocks up 7% today. Because they offer lower priced solutions to consumers. And Dollar General and Dollar Tree are rallying as well.
And I think more and more consumers are just saying that this is a luxury good. I'm looking to cut costs.
Consumers are definitely weakening on the low end, Airbnb and Amazon are example of bargain hunting, people who are looking for discounts, who want to save money with those services.
Airbnb stock went down 15% in one day on soft demand. And what's driving all of this is consumer weakness, or at least fear of consumer weakness.
but like Airbnb, where you think all these young people are running around, yoloing whatever cash they have, Airbnb had a massive warning on demand.
I think that when you see a broad-based set of revenue misses, that will kind of mean that the consumer is really under pressure. I still think that that's more in the fall, but we're headed in that direction.
And what's interesting is that we have finally burned through, and this is what this picture shows, all of the money that folks had in their bank accounts.
Well, the quality is not good, but when the quality is good enough, you'll actually prefer it just because it's just lighter weight. You don't have to take your phone out. You don't have to search for your app and press it.
SA
Sam Altman
oppose ×2
▼ on
🤖 AI agents disintermediate consumer app interfaces
E178 · 2024-05-10
▶ 23:50
It's hard for me to imagine that we just go to a world totally where you say, like, hey, chat GBT, order me sushi, and it says, okay, do you want it from this restaurant? What time? Whatever. I think visual user interfaces are super good for a lot of things.
And then what I'm hearing from a lot of executives is cutting these highly stock comped executives who also have big cash comp, cutting them, putting lieutenants in charge, and then moving more jobs to other locations where people don't expect stock based comp... So as everybody optimizes these businesses, I mean, Facebook even did a dividend.
And the only time really to buy shares back is when you think they're undervalued.
Does debt help an equity shareholder? It categorically does not. Under no world does it do that.
we are now really in the belt-tightening phase of this kind of economic process. So I think that the next probably six to nine months are more of these kinds of things, where folks realize that the amount of discretionary income that people had is less
And I think that's where like these super apps are doing really well or Airbnb adding, you know, some inventory in a new city that they unlock
I'm going to go with consumer comfort services... small luxuries like DoorDash, Airbnb, Uber... And I'm talking my book in two out of those three, which I own shares in... consumers are going to keep treating themselves.