-8.0
net board stance
what this means
617.78
-0.9% · close 2026-09-08
-4% / +18% / +30%
1m / 3m / 12m
-2%
vs SPY since 2025-05-17
74%
of 52w range · -9.2% off high
—
hit rate as primary
Where we stand — 1 live idea
| idea | call | play | conviction | contributes | flag | eval in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏛️ DOGE delivers real federal spending cuts under unified Republican control CONTESTED | ▼ SHORT | adjacent ×0.5 | 16.0 | -8.0 | — | 59d |
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from
score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
What resolves next
kill dates for the live ideas holding this ticker — each one turns into a scored verdict on that date, whether we like it or not
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding CACI, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
BI
Bill Hagerty
support ×2
▼ on
🏛️ DOGE delivers real federal spending cuts under unified Republican control
E236 · 2025-07-19
▶ 1:12:13
So the focus is going to be to continue to find opportunities to basically legislate what has been found in DOJ, the other activities well beyond DOJ. Every department head, every agency is looking for ways to streamline regulations and to cut the cost and to operate more efficiently. I've got to believe there are tremendous opportunities there and many billions more dollars that will come out of the budget as a result.
KE
Keith Rabois
support ×1
▼ on
🏛️ DOGE delivers real federal spending cuts under unified Republican control
E235 · 2025-07-11
▶ 1:19:01
Like this EO is only approved to allow for the planning. I think the vote might be closer. I think there's still a majority on the Supreme Court for the actual implementation, but it may not be 8-1 when there's a specific plan that has to navigate its way through the courts again.
TR
Travis Kalanick
support ×1
▼ on
🏛️ DOGE delivers real federal spending cuts under unified Republican control
E235 · 2025-07-11
▶ 1:17:25
Except that ruling doesn't happen without Doge. That Doge caused that ruling to occur.
So if the CEO of the United States, President Trump, isn't allowed to fire people, then all of that stuff just compounds. So I think that this is a really important thing that just happened. It allows us to now level set how big should the government be.
He was elected to balance his budget and to have austerity. He's going to put more onto the debt, and we sat here on this very podcast, the four of us, and said this was the most important issue on the world, and Trump is putting gasoline on the fire.
I think the writings on the wall that the system is winning and the rebels came in and they tried to fix the inefficiencies in government with DOGE under Elon's leadership and our friend Antonio's participation and a great group of individuals who are true patriots who are spending time trying to help reassess how the government operates.
I mean, do I wish that it made all the DOGE cuts permanent through rescissions? Yeah, absolutely. I think it's outrageous that there are enough House Republicans who didn't want to back up DOGE that wasn't enacted.
This thing is like anti-DOGE. If DOGE was meant to be a reflection of the American voting population's desire for meaningful reform in government, cost controls, some form of austerity, and to get this debt spiral in check, this is the opposite of that.
And I've said this from day one that DOJ can only do so much. And clearly that's the case where they're now talking about sub $300 billion a year in potential annual savings from DOJ action. At the end of the day, Congress needs to take action.
So I think for the first time in decades, we've actually started to make real cuts in government, real cuts in the federal workforce. And look, we'd like to do more, but that is a huge shift in the conversation.
Polymarket showing an 84% chance of less than $50 billion being cut in 2025
my biggest concern is not something that Doge is going to do or not. It's not up to Doge to do that. It's up to, frankly, these old bulls in Congress who control the appropriations process. Are they going to basically backslide and just put the spending back in?
What Elon is trying to do, we have a two trillion dollar annual deficit. He's trying to figure out how to cut it.
I give the administration, like I give Doge an A++. It's obvious like they're doing the right thing. I give the communication like a B, like just increase the communication and you can see they're doing that.
EZ
Ezra Klein
oppose ×2
▼ on
🏛️ DOGE delivers real federal spending cuts under unified Republican control
E223 · 2025-04-11
▶ 1:33:06
I am not going to tell you that there are zero Doge cuts that made sense. But I am going to say that what I see them doing overall is highly destructive state capacity
LA
Larry Summers
oppose ×3
▼ on
🏛️ DOGE delivers real federal spending cuts under unified Republican control
E223 · 2025-04-11
▶ 1:25:47
my belief is that the revenue loss from the dose's destruction of significant part of the functioning of our nation's tax collection system is likely to exceed in terms of contributing more to the deficit than any savings that is successfully realized.
So as Doge sort of slows down that money flow, and as the consensus in Congress gets to a better budget, I think that you're going to see that the government was probably responsible for 100 to 150 basis points of just waste. And if you take that out, you will technically be in a recession.
BE
Ben Shapiro
oppose ×2
▼ on
🏛️ DOGE delivers real federal spending cuts under unified Republican control
E222 · 2025-04-05
▶ 58:22
And while I love what DOGE is doing, the systemic drivers of our national debt are not actually being touched at this point by DOGE. I mean, it's the means-tested welfare programs that are really the systemic long-term drivers of our national debt.
I would say Doge's efforts are important. If you can really cut a trillion dollars of kind of waste, fraud and abuse out of the government spending, that's good.
When we were there, we heard about one consulting firm, 95 plus of all of their revenue, multi-billion dollar revenue comes from Time and Materials contracts with the United States government. We heard throughout the week, I've reposted it on X, $65 billion is paid out to consulting organizations beyond just that one in these Time and Materials cost plus contracts.
We've never been in a situation where in a hundred days, a federal government is setting out to cut their spending by a trillion dollars, which has a significant effect, a recessionary effect on the economy, because there's less federal dollars flowing out, which goes as revenue into various businesses and income for a lot of people that are employed as contractors or directly by federal government agencies
JO
Joe Lonsdale
oppose ×2
▼ on
🏛️ DOGE delivers real federal spending cuts under unified Republican control
E218 · 2025-03-08
▶ 26:04
If it was equal to what Elon was doing, it'd be at least five trillion dollars. And I push a bunch of them. They say, Oh, the Congressional Budget Office and all these things. I'm sure there's some tough things there. But like, this is crazy. We need to see what these cuts need to be on Doge. And we need to cut five trillion. And none of these people have the balls to do that. It's not the political will to do it, is my interpretation.
The direct employees of federal agencies is a fraction of people that are employed indirectly by government spending. This is super important. Because as we all know, many government agencies write checks to large contractors, subcontractors, and third party service providers that do the work for them.
Meanwhile, you've got Elon and Trump saying, hey, we're cutting, we're cutting, we're saving, we're going to get to a trillion dollars a year. But that's not showing up necessarily in the budget. Is it showing up in the actions out of Doge, TBD?
No, I think he is the mechanism of implementing the austerity. I think people want this austerity. Just the question is, what happens when the actual byproducts of that austerity are felt by people for six or seven years? I don't know what the answer is.