📈 Founder-CEO public companies outperform any index
Chamath's rebuttal to the bearish Salesforce case: public companies that reached a $10B market cap and are still run by their founder outperform essentially any index you compare them to, so a 'founder portfolio' is a real screen. Applied specifically to Salesforce - the business model risk is real but Benioff is a founder-CEO and should not be counted out.
other ideas on the same ticker, same direction: AI compute capex supercycle has 12-24 months of runway 86 (NVDA) · Meta becomes America's open-source AI champion 55 (META) · Nvidia + Hugging Face makes NVDA the open-source AI champion 55 (NVDA) · Personal AI agents put the App Store's 30% take and opaque subscription/retail economics on notice 49 (META) · The AI doomer campaign fails — no FDAI, open source survives 31 (NVDA) · The AI doomer campaign fails — no FDAI, open source survives 31 (META) · SaaSpocalypse is overdone for compliance-moat enterprise software 24 (CRM) · Independent frontier-model labs lose to hyperscaler capital 18 (META) · Meta's AI assistant takes ten points of search share from Google 6 (META)
⚖ Why this result
fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2024-05-31 → 2025-05-31 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG CRM (primary play). CRM rose 13.9% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = +13.9% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +13.2% → vs SPY = +13.9 − (+13.2) = +0.7% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
- Rule fired:
· RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+▶ HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all· WRONG — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a HALF earn 0.5 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Sacks | opposed: Chamath, Friedberg | proxy-sensitive: META→HIT (+39.2%); NVDA→HIT (+23.3%)
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2024-05-31)
Plays
Mention log newest first
“These are all just like a handful of examples of people that have just tacked on collectively trillions of dollars of market cap, way more than all founders added together in most companies, but for one or two.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -27.1 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E181 2024-05-31 | init | +35.0 | 35.0 | E181 born by Chamath (explicit_prediction x2) |
| E182 2024-06-07 | decay | -1.4 | 33.6 | E182 silent |
| E183 2024-06-14 | decay | -1.3 | 32.3 | E183 silent |
| E184 2024-06-20 | decay | -1.3 | 31.0 | E184 silent |
| E185 2024-06-29 | decay | -1.2 | 29.7 | E185 silent |
| E186 2024-07-04 | decay | -1.2 | 28.5 | E186 silent |
| E187 2024-07-12 | decay | -1.1 | 27.4 | E187 silent |
| E188 2024-07-19 | decay | -1.1 | 26.3 | E188 silent |
| E189 2024-07-26 | decay | -1.1 | 25.2 | E189 silent |
| E190 2024-08-02 | decay | -1.0 | 24.2 | E190 silent |
| E191 2024-08-09 | decay | -1.0 | 23.3 | E191 silent |
| E192 2024-08-16 | decay | -0.9 | 22.3 | E192 silent |
| E193 2024-08-23 | decay | -0.9 | 21.4 | E193 silent |
| E194 2024-08-30 | decay | -0.9 | 20.6 | E194 silent |
| E195 2024-09-06 | reversal | -12.4 | 8.2 | E195 Chamath flips |
| E195 2024-09-06 | reinforce | +20.6 | 28.9 | E195 Sacks support x2 (new voice) |
| E195 2024-09-06 | oppose | -12.0 | 16.9 | E195 Friedberg opposes x2 |
| E196 2024-09-20 | decay | -0.7 | 16.2 | E196 silent |
| E197 2024-09-27 | decay | -0.6 | 15.6 | E197 silent |
| E198 2024-10-03 | decay | -0.6 | 14.9 | E198 silent |
| E199 2024-10-11 | decay | -0.6 | 14.3 | E199 silent |
| E200 2024-10-18 | decay | -0.6 | 13.8 | E200 silent |
| E201 2024-10-25 | decay | -0.6 | 13.2 | E201 silent |
| E202 2024-11-01 | decay | -0.5 | 12.7 | E202 silent |
| E203 2024-11-08 | decay | -0.5 | 12.2 | E203 silent |
| E204 2024-11-16 | decay | -0.5 | 11.7 | E204 silent |
| E205 2024-11-23 | decay | -0.5 | 11.2 | E205 silent |
| E206 2024-12-07 | decay | -0.4 | 10.8 | E206 silent |
| E207 2024-12-13 | decay | -0.4 | 10.3 | E207 silent |
| E208 2024-12-20 | decay | -0.4 | 9.9 | E208 silent |
| E209 2025-01-04 | decay | -0.4 | 9.5 | E209 silent |
| E210 2025-01-11 | decay | -0.4 | 9.2 | E210 silent |
| E211 2025-01-18 | decay | -0.4 | 8.8 | E211 silent |
| E212 2025-01-25 | decay | -0.4 | 8.4 | E212 silent |
| E213 2025-01-31 | decay | -0.3 | 8.1 | E213 silent |
| E214 2025-02-07 | decay | -0.3 | 7.8 | E214 silent |
| E215 2025-02-15 | decay | -0.3 | 7.5 | E215 silent |
| E216 2025-02-21 | decay | -0.3 | 7.2 | E216 silent |
| E217 2025-03-01 | decay | -0.3 | 6.9 | E217 silent |
| E218 2025-03-08 | decay | -0.3 | 6.6 | E218 silent |
| E219 2025-03-15 | decay | -0.3 | 6.3 | E219 silent |
| E220 2025-03-22 | decay | -0.3 | 6.1 | E220 silent |
| E221 2025-03-29 | decay | -0.2 | 5.8 | E221 silent |
| E222 2025-04-05 | decay | -0.2 | 5.6 | E222 silent |
| E223 2025-04-11 | decay | -0.2 | 5.4 | E223 silent |
| E224 2025-04-19 | decay | -0.2 | 5.2 | E224 silent |
| E225 2025-04-26 | decay | -0.2 | 5.0 | E225 silent |
| E226 2025-05-02 | decay | -0.2 | 4.8 | E226 silent |
| E227 2025-05-09 | decay | -0.2 | 4.6 | E227 silent |
| E228 2025-05-17 | decay | -0.2 | 4.4 | E228 silent |
| E229 2025-05-24 | decay | -0.2 | 4.2 | E229 silent |