⚡ US SMR buildout stalls on NIMBY and unproven technology
Big Tech's small-modular-reactor announcements don't turn into operating US reactors: Sacks argues local communities block them wherever they get sited and calls elite pro-nuclear enthusiasm a luxury belief, while Chamath argues no next-generation SMR actually works anywhere yet, so the Amazon/Google/Microsoft deals are conditional signalling rather than risk capital. Friedberg and Jason take the other side on economic necessity and available land.
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2024-10-18 → 2025-10-18 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▼ SHORT SMR (primary play). SMR rose 143.0% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -143.0% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +15.0%
→ α = -143.0 − (+15.0) = -158.0%
— what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
Stock-selection read: -128.0% — did SMR move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0▶ MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath, Friedberg, Sacks | opposed: Jason
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2024-10-18)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ SHORT | SMR | stock | PRIMARY | NuScale is the listed SMR pure-play and re-rates on deployment news, not on conditional LOIs |
| ▼ SHORT | BWXT | stock | adjacent | reactor component and small-reactor manufacturer levered to US newbuild actually starting |
| ▼ SHORT | OKLO | stock | adjacent | pre-revenue advanced-fission developer priced entirely on a permitting/deployment narrative |
Mention log
“I don't think anyone wants a nuclear power plant in their backyard. It's really simple. I mean, no matter what the benefits are for AI or for America's global competitiveness, I just don't think your typical community wants a nuclear power plant in their backyard. And I don't think it matters that much if it's a small modular one either.”
“we have new Gen 4 technologies that are meltdown proof, that have a totally different architecture where there isn't a setup, where you have runaway heat and ultimately a collapse of the reactor and a release of radioactive material, which is what happened at Chernobyl. These new systems, which we highlighted on the show a couple of months ago, like the Pebble Bed Reactor that's been in production making electricity in China, are incredible new technology architectures and they're here and they're running.”
“Yeah, the downside is the amount of time it takes to adequately build these things properly. The thing that China has had is, it's as Thomas' chart shows, is decades of practice in building things safely and quickly. We can build things, but we haven't had the practice to build them either safely or quickly because we haven't built any.”
“OK, if you ordered one today, the fastest that you can get it turned on is 2030 The fastest that you can get nuclear turned on is 2035 So we don't have the ability to generate incremental electricity very quickly, but for renewables.”
“This is, I think, Gavin, one of the great upshots of the AI boom is that the AI companies, whether it's Meta or Google, they're so motivated that they'll actually go and upgrade the infrastructure. They'll invest in the, you know, small modular nuclear reactors that are coming.”
“Yeah, so in the small modular reactor, Gen 4 stuff, we as well as others have investments there. A great company we like called X Energy.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -26.1 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E200 2024-10-18 | init | +39.4 | 39.4 | E200 born by Sacks (explicit_prediction x3) [w=0.94] |
| E200 2024-10-18 | oppose | -11.2 | 28.2 | E200 Friedberg opposes x3 [w=0.78] |
| E200 2024-10-18 | oppose | -12.0 | 16.2 | E200 Jason opposes x2 |
| E200 2024-10-18 | reinforce | +12.3 | 28.5 | E200 Chamath support x3 (new voice) [w=0.55] |
| E201 2024-10-25 | decay | -1.1 | 27.4 | E201 silent |
| E202 2024-11-01 | decay | -1.1 | 26.3 | E202 silent |
| E203 2024-11-08 | decay | -1.1 | 25.2 | E203 silent |
| E204 2024-11-16 | decay | -1.0 | 24.2 | E204 silent |
| E205 2024-11-23 | decay | -1.0 | 23.3 | E205 silent |
| E206 2024-12-07 | decay | -0.9 | 22.3 | E206 silent |
| E207 2024-12-13 | decay | -0.9 | 21.4 | E207 silent |
| E208 2024-12-20 | decay | -0.9 | 20.6 | E208 silent |
| E209 2025-01-04 | decay | -0.8 | 19.8 | E209 silent |
| E210 2025-01-11 | decay | -0.8 | 19.0 | E210 silent |
| E211 2025-01-18 | decay | -0.8 | 18.2 | E211 silent |
| E212 2025-01-25 | oppose | -11.2 | 7.0 | E212 Friedberg opposes x3 [w=0.78] |
| E212 2025-01-25 | reinforce | +7.6 | 14.6 | E212 Chamath support x2 [w=0.55] |
| E213 2025-01-31 | decay | -0.6 | 14.0 | E213 silent |
| E214 2025-02-07 | decay | -0.6 | 13.5 | E214 silent |
| E215 2025-02-15 | decay | -0.5 | 12.9 | E215 silent |
| E216 2025-02-21 | decay | -0.5 | 12.4 | E216 silent |
| E217 2025-03-01 | decay | -0.5 | 11.9 | E217 silent |
| E218 2025-03-08 | reinforce | +7.2 | 19.1 | E218 Chamath support x2 [w=0.55] |
| E219 2025-03-15 | decay | -0.8 | 18.4 | E219 silent |
| E220 2025-03-22 | decay | -0.7 | 17.6 | E220 silent |
| E221 2025-03-29 | decay | -0.7 | 16.9 | E221 silent |
| E222 2025-04-05 | decay | -0.7 | 16.2 | E222 silent |
| E223 2025-04-11 | decay | -0.6 | 15.6 | E223 silent |
| E224 2025-04-19 | decay | -0.6 | 15.0 | E224 silent |
| E225 2025-04-26 | reinforce | +7.0 | 21.9 | E225 Chamath support x2 [w=0.55] |
| E225 2025-04-26 | reinforce | +9.1 | 31.0 | E225 Friedberg support x2 (flipped from oppose) [w=0.78] |
| E226 2025-05-02 | decay | -1.2 | 29.8 | E226 silent |
| E227 2025-05-09 | decay | -1.2 | 28.6 | E227 silent |
| E228 2025-05-17 | decay | -1.1 | 27.5 | E228 silent |
| E229 2025-05-24 | oppose | -9.6 | 17.9 | E229 Jason opposes x1 |
| E229 2025-05-24 | reinforce | +6.7 | 24.6 | E229 Chamath support x2 [w=0.55] |
| E231 2025-06-13 | decay | -1.0 | 23.6 | E231 silent |
| E232 2025-06-21 | decay | -0.9 | 22.7 | E232 silent |
| E233 2025-06-28 | decay | -0.9 | 21.7 | E233 silent |
| E234 2025-07-04 | decay | -0.9 | 20.9 | E234 silent |
| E235 2025-07-11 | decay | -0.8 | 20.0 | E235 silent |
| E236 2025-07-19 | oppose | -12.0 | 8.0 | E236 Jason opposes x2 |
| E237 2025-08-01 | decay | -0.3 | 7.7 | E237 silent |
| E238 2025-08-09 | oppose | -6.0 | 1.7 | E238 Phil Deutch opposes x2 [w=0.50] |
| E239 2025-08-15 | decay | -0.1 | 1.7 | E239 silent |
| E240 2025-08-22 | decay | -0.1 | 1.6 | E240 silent |
| E241 2025-08-29 | decay | -0.1 | 1.5 | E241 silent |
| E242 2025-09-07 | decay | -0.1 | 1.5 | E242 silent |
| E243 2025-09-19 | decay | -0.1 | 1.4 | E243 silent |
| E244 2025-09-27 | decay | -0.1 | 1.3 | E244 silent |
| E245 2025-10-03 | decay | -0.1 | 1.3 | E245 silent |
| E246 2025-10-10 | decay | -0.1 | 1.2 | E246 silent |
| E247 2025-10-17 | decay | -0.0 | 1.2 | E247 silent |