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⚖ Why this result

fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set

1. Window: 2023-07-01 → 2024-07-01 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
2. The call: ▲ LONG SNOW (primary play). SNOW fell 19.3% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = -19.3% (the call lost money).
3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +24.6% → vs SPY = -19.3 − (+24.6) = -43.9% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
4. Rule fired:
   · RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+

   · HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all

   ▶ WRONG — everything else
5. Credit: supporters of a WRONG earn 0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Friedberg, Sacks | opposed: Chamath | proxy-sensitive: IGV→PARTIAL (+26.9%)

each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Sacks 39%

1 scoring event · 53% of moves

+42.0 → net +42.0

Chamath 45%

2 scoring events · 30% of moves

+0.0 / -24.0 → net -24.0

Friedberg 55%

1 scoring event · 17% of moves

+13.1 → net +13.1

⏳ decay drained -26.5 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one