📈 The SPAC boom's back end breaks into the 2022 shot clock

“And so you're going to see some really crazy behavior, I predict, in November of 2022 ... Like the last six months leading into the expiration of all these Sacks in between now and then, I think the market is really going to hold people accountable.”

“I sent Chamath a note I got this morning from my friend who works at one of the banks and one of the bulge brackets, and they said there was like 50 pipes in the market last week. ... And they think only five of them are going to get done.”

“this is the ultimate peak grift in the peak bubble of our lifetime. Period. ... not all these SPACs stay at $150 a share, you know.”

“Anyways, the net net of it all is like, you know, that was very inefficient capital deployment. And as I look at it now, it's like, you know, I'm down. Well, I'm technically up 19%. But that's really because of one deal, if I take that one deal out, which was a total outlier, I'm down 17% on about $200 million of investment. ... And so all these pipes, I'm in the midst of sort of cleaning up and selling down. And they've been just a kind of a disaster for me.”

“Chamath, is it not true that we are seeing a bunch of these SPAC deals and new issuances come out to market with converts attached to them? ... At least that's what I'm hearing from bankers is kind of the rumbling in the SPAC and pipe market right now, is these kind of protective new types of equities that are coming out in order that the investors can kind of keep their mark on their private valuation rounds, but get the company out to public, but the public market is getting a better deal than just straight common equity.”

“Look, it's like bringing Pepto-Bismol to Mexico. If you're worried about an upset stomach, don't go to Mexico. ... The minute that you're trying to wrap all these features around something, the nature of those kinds of features is that it's trying to subsidize what is otherwise not a clear, simple, buyable story at that price. So either change the price or change the company.”

“BuzzFeed IPO was a complete disaster. 80% of people are already in their spack. BuzzFeed is circling the drain.”

“And just trying to manage risk, and I exited a ton of positions, all my pipes, you know, my third party pipes, I basically sold off except for one. You know, I generated some liquidity in other places as well.”

“It's going to consolidate to the 10 of us that know what we're doing. ... Similarly, SPACs will consolidate around six or seven players and, you know, will do most of the business. ... I've invested a minimum of $100 million in every single deal I've done as a SPAC sponsor.”

“many investors made investments on the basis of those forecasts being to some degree reasonably achievable or likely achievable. And it turns out that in many cases they were not and were not achieved. ... the problem with investing in private companies or speculative companies is that you're investing on the come. And more often than not, that doesn't end up happening.”

“I think that the thing with SPACs in general in a moment like this is that it actually performs better in periods of high volatility.”

“It's been a long time coming. It's been a very hard process, as Chamath can attest. And as we all talk about, capital markets are very difficult right now.”

“The overwhelming majority of the tech SPACs, I think probably will just wind up.”

“Every SPAC sponsor friend of mine that I know is not seeking targets anymore. They're all expecting to wind up and return capital.”