+0.0
net board stance
what this means
568.71
-1.8% · close 2026-09-08
+1% / +15% / -2%
1m / 3m / 12m
-15%
vs SPY since 2021-09-14
76%
of 52w range · -5.2% off high
—
hit rate as primary
Where we stand — 0 live ideas
No active idea holds this ticker. Anything below is history.
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from
score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
Track record on MA
No closed window has used this ticker as its primary play, so there is no scored record here yet. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.
| idea | call | play | verdict | R | α | closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 📈 Opaque payment fee pools get competed to zero | ▼ SHORT | adjacent | MISS | -8.8% | -22.5 | 2022-02-13 |
| 📈 Visa/Mastercard at peak market cap — Web3 rails eat the 2-3% tax | ▼ SHORT | adjacent | PARTIAL | +3.9% | +22.3 | 2022-12-29 |
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding MA, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
Friedberg
support ×1
▼ on
📈 Visa/Mastercard at peak market cap — Web3 rails eat the 2-3% tax
E61 · 2021-12-29
▶ 32:14
They were the classic network-effect monopoly business... as with all networks, complacency drives innovation. And this fueled innovation is now starting to figure out ways to not just crack their way into the network, but to replace them with an entirely different model.
Jason
support ×1
▼ on
📈 Visa/Mastercard at peak market cap — Web3 rails eat the 2-3% tax
E61 · 2021-12-29
▶ 30:26
Well, not to mention you also have in between these two, Venmo and Cash App, which are not crypto, but they certainly as brands mean more to young people than Visa and MasterCard. ... Visa and MasterCard became a tax. It took them decades and decades to have that power over folks. But I think a firm does break that.
Chamath
support ×3
▼ on
📈 Visa/Mastercard at peak market cap — Web3 rails eat the 2-3% tax
E61 · 2021-12-29
▶ 27:09
My biggest business loser for 2022 is Visa and MasterCard and traditional payment rails... this is the year you can put on what probably will be the most profitable spread trade of my lifetime... short these companies and be long well-thought-out Web3 crypto projects... I think this is their peak market cap... this is not one where disruption happens slow... like in a year.
Amazon is now doing more to actually unwind duopolies and monopolies in markets than the government and the FTC is, you know, see this thing that Amazon is now doing in the UK with Visa, where they basically shut Visa off. ... And so they are looking at and there's a rumor that they may switch the Amazon credit card off of Visa rails and put them on MasterCard rails. But this is another example, Jason, to your point of like, you know, Bernie and the progressive left would probably rail against the duopoly practices of Visa and MasterCard. They can't get anything done.
The comment on this, by the way, the most obvious one here, which I think is interesting, is the Shopify stripe debate. Because if you look inside the P&L of Shopify, an enormous line item now, about 350 million bucks a year is what they're paying to stripe. And, you know, there's going to be a lot of pressure over time to figure out what these big businesses want to do with respect to their payment strategies and do it themselves, because they may be able to save a lot of money.
Well, I think more people do just because the technology companies that have come around, like Stripe and others, will eventually just try to take it to zero. ... when you find, to your point, these opaque pools of revenue, the innovation is just to give consumers power by taking these costs to zero.