+0.0
net board stance
what this means
316.58
-1.8% · close 2026-09-08
-1% / -4% / +77%
1m / 3m / 12m
-11%
vs SPY since 2023-07-01
86%
of 52w range · -6.7% off high
0/1
hit rate as primary · α -76
Where we stand — 0 live ideas
No active idea holds this ticker. Anything below is history.
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from
score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
Track record on FDX
As a PRIMARY play the besties are 0 hit / 0 partial / 1 miss over 1 closed window — credit 0.0, average α -75.5. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.
| idea | call | play | verdict | R | α | closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🌍 Red Sea blockade spikes freight rates and re-ignites goods inflation | ▲ LONG | adjacent | HIT | +154.2% | +127.6 | 2024-12-23 |
| 📈 FedEx's warning is competitive, not macro - Amazon is eating the parcel business | ▼ SHORT | primary | MISS | -59.6% | -75.5 | 2023-09-17 |
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding FDX, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
it's having to go around the Horn of Africa, it's adding two or three weeks to the trip ... It's Europe and China who are impacted the most.
This is really an issue for Europe. It's not an issue for the United States because there are alternative routes. ... what we're really debating is what is the risk of inflation and a backup of goods and shipping rates into Europe?
I'm assuming shipping prices are going to go up, freight prices are going to go up.
the fact that the insurance companies won't insure the ship anymore means that now that ship can't travel and that's tens of millions of dollars of commerce that gets shut down off of a few thousand dollar investment. ... there are many other groups like this that may get emboldened and you start to see more activity in other regions as well
the really significant impacts are downstream to Europe consumer prices. So I think like European inflation has more chance of upticking again than America does
RY
Ryan Petersen
support ×3
▲ on
🌍 Red Sea blockade spikes freight rates and re-ignites goods inflation
E158 · 2023-12-23
▶ 11:02
About 30% of all ocean container traffic flows through the Suez and through the Red Sea. ... So you're talking about a 20, 25% cut in shipping capacity on the 30% of all containers.
Well, they could be losing market share while still growing because e-commerce is growing so violently in the world.
And to blame a recession is sort of a little bit of hiding the cheese. It's probably fair to say that their lunches get eaten by Amazon. So I could understand why FedEx is under a lot of pressure because of that.
And I would guess that all three continue to work against them. It's not like they have a lot of diversification in the business and other ways to expand out into. So you've got a key vertically integrated player, namely Amazon, that is investing heavily to replace whatever they use you for.
RY
Ryan Petersen
support ×2
▲ on
📈 Air cargo stays tight because passenger belly capacity has not come back
E82 · 2022-05-24
▶ 45:24
And you asked a little bit, air freight, what's going to happen there. Well, remember, 50% of all the world's air freight flies in the belly of passenger planes. There's way less people traveling to and from Asia than there were. ... we've actually got 10 passenger planes that we've leased, and we'll keep doing more, that are not flying any passengers. We're just filling them with freight.