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🤖 Pervasive satellite internet covers the whole earth within five years

LEO constellations (Starlink, Swarm and competitors) make broadband available on every square inch of the planet inside five years, bringing one to two billion new users online.

0 CONVICTION
peaked 64.1 WATCH
EMBER
band
▲ LONG IRDM
expression · bullish tech
PARTIAL
outcome · R +34.7% · α -51.6%
2026-07-16
window closed

⚖ Why this verdict

fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set

  1. Window: 2021-07-16 → 2026-07-16 — first mention + 60-month horizon, then the window locks.
  2. The call: ▲ LONG IRDM (primary play). IRDM rose 34.7% over the window → direction-adjusted R = +34.7% (the call made money).
  3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +86.2%α = +34.7 − (+86.2) = -51.6% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
  4. Rule fired:
    · HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5
    ▶ PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0
    · MISS — everything else
  5. Credit: supporters of a PARTIAL earn 0.5 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath, Friedberg, Jason, Sacks | proxy-sensitive: GSAT→HIT (+276.0%)

Conviction timeline

bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15

Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2021-07-16)

Plays

expressionsymbolkindrelevancerationale
▲ LONG IRDMstock PRIMARY listed pure-play global satellite connectivity operator
▲ LONG GSATstock adjacent LEO satellite operator levered to pervasive-coverage demand
▲ LONG VSATstock adjacent satellite broadband incumbent, direct read on the thesis

Mention log

Chamath
Chamath tech w=0.90 · n=83 · E40 (2021-07-16) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 56:37 SUPPORT · horizon 60mo
“The two most important companies in satellite communications are Starlink and Swarm. And Swarm was a company that I seeded and Sacks did the Series A. ... And I think that within the next five years, we'll probably have pervasive Internet access everywhere in the earth. And that's transformational.”
Jason
Jason tech w=1.05 · n=56 · E40 (2021-07-16) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 52:30 SUPPORT · horizon 120mo
“we're going to take a billion or two billion people and give them broadband instantly within a decade. This is going to change the face of the planet.”
Friedberg
Friedberg tech w=1.08 · n=65 · E40 (2021-07-16) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 54:19 SUPPORT
“And it's really impressive to see because it's such a no brainer. People have been talking about this opportunity for over a decade. And these guys just have absolutely rushed the field. And they could build an incredible business out of this.”
Sacks
Sacks tech w=0.77 · n=53 · E60 (2021-12-23) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:17:36 SUPPORT
“So I'm going to go with Starlink. Yes, it just came out at the end of 2020, but this year it kept getting better and faster, and now it's reported that Starlink is faster than the fixed broadband average in Belgium, Canada, Australia, Germany, the UK, New Zealand, and France.”
Chamath
Chamath tech w=0.90 · n=83 · E60 (2021-12-23) · positioning · strength 1 ▶ 1:18:05 SUPPORT
“All I can say, all I can say for all of us who own SpaceX, yum yum. That's so delicious.”
Jason
Jason tech w=1.05 · n=56 · E102 (2022-10-29) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 47:41 SUPPORT
“I will tell you, I think Starlink has such a huge opportunity.”
Chamath
Chamath tech w=0.90 · n=83 · E159 (2023-12-29) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 23:18 SUPPORT
“Second was, I think SpaceX has really turned a corner. Starlink is really at scale. Starship looks like it's viable.”
Sacks
Sacks tech w=0.77 · n=53 · E159 (2023-12-29) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 58:24 SUPPORT
“I'm looking forward to Starlink for private aviation as well, but I've heard it's a real game changer on commercial flights and every kind of flight.”
Sacks
Sacks tech w=0.77 · n=53 · E167 (2024-02-23) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 34:02 SUPPORT
“the big moneymaker at SpaceX is Starlink, which is the satellite network, basically broadband from space. And it's on its way to handling, I think, a meaningful percentage of all internet traffic.”
Friedberg
Friedberg tech w=1.08 · n=65 · E200 (2024-10-18) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 21:17 SUPPORT
“If we can get satellite to phone and you can get Starlink more broadly available, this could be 100 million subscriber business. I mean, this could be one of the biggest businesses on the Earth.”
Jason
Jason tech w=1.05 · n=56 · E200 (2024-10-18) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 21:49 SUPPORT
“It could be the first 500 million subscriber product in the world.”
Jason
Jason tech w=1.05 · n=56 · E223 (2025-04-11) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 1:49:22 SUPPORT
“Here's all you need to know, Ezra. It's a hundred bucks to get Starlink. It's 15,000 to do Fiber.”
Chamath
Chamath tech w=0.90 · n=83 · E233 (2025-06-28) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 1:17:00 SUPPORT
“I think the only thing that you should be searching for when you're flying is, is it Argus Platinum? And does it have Starlink? It's the only thing.”
Jason
Jason tech w=1.05 · n=56 · E233 (2025-06-28) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 1:17:41 SUPPORT
“And United, the entire fleet's going to have my preferred airline. I think it's like this could change productivity.”

Who built this conviction

each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Chamath
Chamath w=0.90
4 scoring events · 37% of moves
+61.9 → net +61.9
Jason
Jason w=1.05
5 scoring events · 32% of moves
+53.3 → net +53.3
Friedberg
Friedberg w=1.08
2 scoring events · 16% of moves
+27.3 → net +27.3
Sacks
Sacks w=0.77
3 scoring events · 14% of moves
+23.1 → net +23.1

⏳ decay drained -147.4 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one

Score events

episodekindΔafternote
E40 2021-07-16 init +38.0 38.0 E40 born by Chamath (explicit_prediction x3) [w=0.90]
E40 2021-07-16 reinforce +14.7 52.7 E40 Jason support x2 (new voice) [w=1.05]
E40 2021-07-16 reinforce +11.5 64.1 E40 Friedberg support x2 (new voice) [w=1.08]
E41 2021-07-23 decay -1.3 62.8 E41 silent
E42 2021-07-30 decay -1.3 61.6 E42 silent
E43 2021-08-06 decay -1.2 60.4 E43 silent
E44 2021-08-28 decay -1.2 59.2 E44 silent
E45 2021-09-04 decay -1.2 58.0 E45 silent
E46 2021-09-14 decay -1.2 56.8 E46 silent
E47 2021-09-18 decay -1.1 55.7 E47 silent
E49 2021-10-02 decay -1.1 54.6 E49 silent
E50 2021-10-09 decay -1.1 53.5 E50 silent
E51 2021-10-16 decay -1.1 52.4 E51 silent
E52 2021-10-23 decay -1.0 51.4 E52 silent
E53 2021-10-30 decay -1.0 50.3 E53 silent
E54 2021-11-06 decay -1.0 49.3 E54 silent
E55 2021-11-13 decay -1.0 48.3 E55 silent
E56 2021-11-20 decay -1.0 47.4 E56 silent
E57 2021-12-04 decay -0.9 46.4 E57 silent
E58 2021-12-11 decay -0.9 45.5 E58 silent
E59 2021-12-17 decay -0.9 44.6 E59 silent
E60 2021-12-23 reinforce +9.6 54.2 E60 Sacks support x2 (new voice) [w=0.77]
E60 2021-12-23 reinforce +5.0 59.2 E60 Chamath support x1 [w=0.90]
E61 2021-12-29 decay -1.2 58.0 E61 silent
E62 2022-01-08 decay -1.2 56.8 E62 silent
E63 2022-01-15 decay -1.1 55.7 E63 silent
E64 2022-01-22 decay -1.1 54.6 E64 silent
E65 2022-01-29 decay -1.1 53.5 E65 silent
E66 2022-02-05 decay -1.1 52.4 E66 silent
E67 2022-02-12 decay -1.0 51.4 E67 silent
E68 2022-02-19 decay -1.0 50.4 E68 silent
E70 2022-02-24 decay -1.0 49.3 E70 silent
E71 2022-03-05 decay -1.0 48.4 E71 silent
E72 2022-03-19 decay -1.0 47.4 E72 silent
E73 2022-03-26 decay -0.9 46.4 E73 silent
E74 2022-04-01 decay -0.9 45.5 E74 silent
E75 2022-04-09 decay -0.9 44.6 E75 silent
E76 2022-04-16 decay -0.9 43.7 E76 silent
E77 2022-04-23 decay -0.9 42.8 E77 silent
E78 2022-04-30 decay -0.9 42.0 E78 silent
E79 2022-05-07 decay -0.8 41.1 E79 silent
E80 2022-05-13 decay -0.8 40.3 E80 silent
E81 2022-05-23 decay -0.8 39.5 E81 silent
E82 2022-05-24 decay -0.8 38.7 E82 silent
E84 2022-06-24 decay -0.8 38.0 E84 silent
E85 2022-06-30 decay -0.8 37.2 E85 silent
E86 2022-07-08 decay -0.7 36.4 E86 silent
E87 2022-07-14 decay -0.7 35.7 E87 silent
E88 2022-07-22 decay -0.7 35.0 E88 silent
E89 2022-07-29 decay -0.7 34.3 E89 silent
E90 2022-08-05 decay -0.7 33.6 E90 silent
E91 2022-08-13 decay -0.7 32.9 E91 silent
E92 2022-08-20 decay -0.7 32.3 E92 silent
E93 2022-08-26 decay -0.6 31.6 E93 silent
E94 2022-09-01 decay -0.6 31.0 E94 silent
E95 2022-09-10 decay -0.6 30.4 E95 silent
E96 2022-09-17 decay -0.6 29.8 E96 silent
E97 2022-09-23 decay -0.6 29.2 E97 silent
E98 2022-10-01 decay -0.6 28.6 E98 silent
E99 2022-10-07 decay -0.6 28.0 E99 silent
E100 2022-10-14 decay -0.6 27.5 E100 silent
E101 2022-10-22 decay -0.5 26.9 E101 silent
E102 2022-10-29 reinforce +11.5 38.5 E102 Jason support x2 [w=1.05]
E103 2022-11-05 decay -0.8 37.7 E103 silent
E105 2022-11-19 decay -0.8 36.9 E105 silent
E106 2022-12-03 decay -0.7 36.2 E106 silent
E107 2022-12-10 decay -0.7 35.5 E107 silent
E108 2022-12-16 decay -0.7 34.8 E108 silent
E109 2022-12-24 decay -0.7 34.1 E109 silent
E110 2023-01-06 decay -0.7 33.4 E110 silent
E111 2023-01-13 decay -0.7 32.7 E111 silent
E112 2023-01-20 decay -0.7 32.1 E112 silent
E113 2023-01-27 decay -0.6 31.4 E113 silent
E114 2023-02-04 decay -0.6 30.8 E114 silent
E115 2023-02-11 decay -0.6 30.2 E115 silent
E116 2023-02-17 decay -0.6 29.6 E116 silent
E118 2023-03-03 decay -0.6 29.0 E118 silent
E119 2023-03-11 decay -0.6 28.4 E119 silent
E120 2023-03-17 decay -0.6 27.8 E120 silent
E121 2023-03-24 decay -0.6 27.3 E121 silent
E122 2023-03-31 decay -0.5 26.7 E122 silent
E123 2023-04-07 decay -0.5 26.2 E123 silent
E124 2023-04-14 decay -0.5 25.7 E124 silent
E125 2023-04-21 decay -0.5 25.2 E125 silent
E126 2023-04-28 decay -0.5 24.7 E126 silent
E128 2023-05-12 decay -0.5 24.2 E128 silent
E129 2023-05-19 decay -0.5 23.7 E129 silent
E130 2023-05-26 decay -0.5 23.2 E130 silent
E131 2023-06-02 decay -0.5 22.8 E131 silent
E132 2023-06-10 decay -0.5 22.3 E132 silent
E133 2023-06-16 decay -0.4 21.8 E133 silent
E134 2023-06-24 decay -0.4 21.4 E134 silent
E135 2023-07-01 decay -0.4 21.0 E135 silent
E136 2023-07-09 decay -0.4 20.6 E136 silent
E137 2023-07-14 decay -0.4 20.2 E137 silent
E139 2023-07-27 decay -0.4 19.8 E139 silent
E140 2023-08-04 decay -0.4 19.4 E140 silent
E141 2023-08-11 decay -0.4 19.0 E141 silent
E142 2023-08-18 decay -0.4 18.6 E142 silent
E143 2023-08-25 decay -0.4 18.2 E143 silent
E144 2023-09-01 decay -0.4 17.9 E144 silent
E146 2023-09-22 decay -0.4 17.5 E146 silent
E147 2023-09-29 decay -0.3 17.1 E147 silent
E148 2023-10-07 decay -0.3 16.8 E148 silent
E149 2023-10-13 decay -0.3 16.5 E149 silent
E150 2023-10-20 decay -0.3 16.1 E150 silent
E151 2023-10-27 decay -0.3 15.8 E151 silent
E152 2023-11-03 decay -0.3 15.5 E152 silent
E156 2023-12-08 decay -0.3 15.2 E156 silent
E157 2023-12-16 decay -0.3 14.9 E157 silent
E158 2023-12-23 decay -0.3 14.6 E158 silent
E159 2023-12-29 reinforce +11.6 26.2 E159 Chamath support x2 [w=0.90]
E159 2023-12-29 reinforce +6.9 33.0 E159 Sacks support x1 [w=0.77]
E160 2024-01-06 decay -0.7 32.4 E160 silent
E161 2024-01-13 decay -0.6 31.7 E161 silent
E162 2024-01-19 decay -0.6 31.1 E162 silent
E163 2024-01-26 decay -0.6 30.5 E163 silent
E164 2024-02-02 decay -0.6 29.8 E164 silent
E165 2024-02-09 decay -0.6 29.2 E165 silent
E166 2024-02-16 decay -0.6 28.7 E166 silent
E167 2024-02-23 reinforce +6.6 35.3 E167 Sacks support x1 [w=0.77]
E168 2024-03-01 decay -0.7 34.6 E168 silent
E169 2024-03-08 decay -0.7 33.9 E169 silent
E170 2024-03-15 decay -0.7 33.2 E170 silent
E171 2024-03-22 decay -0.7 32.5 E171 silent
E172 2024-03-29 decay -0.7 31.9 E172 silent
E173 2024-04-05 decay -0.6 31.3 E173 silent
E174 2024-04-12 decay -0.6 30.6 E174 silent
E175 2024-04-19 decay -0.6 30.0 E175 silent
E176 2024-04-26 decay -0.6 29.4 E176 silent
E177 2024-05-03 decay -0.6 28.8 E177 silent
E178 2024-05-10 decay -0.6 28.3 E178 silent
E179 2024-05-17 decay -0.6 27.7 E179 silent
E180 2024-05-24 decay -0.6 27.1 E180 silent
E181 2024-05-31 decay -0.5 26.6 E181 silent
E182 2024-06-07 decay -0.5 26.1 E182 silent
E183 2024-06-14 decay -0.5 25.5 E183 silent
E184 2024-06-20 decay -0.5 25.0 E184 silent
E185 2024-06-29 decay -0.5 24.5 E185 silent
E186 2024-07-04 decay -0.5 24.0 E186 silent
E187 2024-07-12 decay -0.5 23.6 E187 silent
E188 2024-07-19 decay -0.5 23.1 E188 silent
E189 2024-07-26 decay -0.5 22.6 E189 silent
E190 2024-08-02 decay -0.5 22.2 E190 silent
E191 2024-08-09 decay -0.4 21.7 E191 silent
E192 2024-08-16 decay -0.4 21.3 E192 silent
E193 2024-08-23 decay -0.4 20.9 E193 silent
E194 2024-08-30 decay -0.4 20.5 E194 silent
E195 2024-09-06 decay -0.4 20.0 E195 silent
E196 2024-09-20 decay -0.4 19.6 E196 silent
E197 2024-09-27 decay -0.4 19.2 E197 silent
E198 2024-10-03 decay -0.4 18.9 E198 silent
E199 2024-10-11 decay -0.4 18.5 E199 silent
E200 2024-10-18 reinforce +15.8 34.3 E200 Friedberg support x3 [w=1.08]
E200 2024-10-18 reinforce +10.4 44.7 E200 Jason support x2 [w=1.05]
E201 2024-10-25 decay -0.9 43.8 E201 silent
E202 2024-11-01 decay -0.9 42.9 E202 silent
E203 2024-11-08 decay -0.9 42.0 E203 silent
E204 2024-11-16 decay -0.8 41.2 E204 silent
E205 2024-11-23 decay -0.8 40.4 E205 silent
E206 2024-12-07 decay -0.8 39.6 E206 silent
E207 2024-12-13 decay -0.8 38.8 E207 silent
E208 2024-12-20 decay -0.8 38.0 E208 silent
E209 2025-01-04 decay -0.8 37.2 E209 silent
E210 2025-01-11 decay -0.7 36.5 E210 silent
E211 2025-01-18 decay -0.7 35.8 E211 silent
E212 2025-01-25 decay -0.7 35.1 E212 silent
E213 2025-01-31 decay -0.7 34.4 E213 silent
E214 2025-02-07 decay -0.7 33.7 E214 silent
E215 2025-02-15 decay -0.7 33.0 E215 silent
E216 2025-02-21 decay -0.7 32.3 E216 silent
E217 2025-03-01 decay -0.6 31.7 E217 silent
E218 2025-03-08 decay -0.6 31.1 E218 silent
E219 2025-03-15 decay -0.6 30.4 E219 silent
E220 2025-03-22 decay -0.6 29.8 E220 silent
E221 2025-03-29 decay -0.6 29.2 E221 silent
E222 2025-04-05 decay -0.6 28.6 E222 silent
E223 2025-04-11 reinforce +9.0 37.7 E223 Jason support x1 [w=1.05]
E224 2025-04-19 decay -0.8 36.9 E224 silent
E225 2025-04-26 decay -0.7 36.2 E225 silent
E226 2025-05-02 decay -0.7 35.4 E226 silent
E227 2025-05-09 decay -0.7 34.7 E227 silent
E228 2025-05-17 decay -0.7 34.0 E228 silent
E229 2025-05-24 decay -0.7 33.4 E229 silent
E231 2025-06-13 decay -0.7 32.7 E231 silent
E232 2025-06-21 decay -0.7 32.0 E232 silent
E233 2025-06-28 reinforce +7.4 39.4 E233 Chamath support x1 [w=0.90]
E233 2025-06-28 reinforce +7.7 47.1 E233 Jason support x1 [w=1.05]
E234 2025-07-04 decay -0.9 46.1 E234 silent
E235 2025-07-11 decay -0.9 45.2 E235 silent
E236 2025-07-19 decay -0.9 44.3 E236 silent
E237 2025-08-01 decay -0.9 43.4 E237 silent
E238 2025-08-09 decay -0.9 42.5 E238 silent
E239 2025-08-15 decay -0.9 41.7 E239 silent
E240 2025-08-22 decay -0.8 40.9 E240 silent
E241 2025-08-29 decay -0.8 40.0 E241 silent
E242 2025-09-07 decay -0.8 39.2 E242 silent
E243 2025-09-19 decay -0.8 38.5 E243 silent
E244 2025-09-27 decay -0.8 37.7 E244 silent
E245 2025-10-03 decay -0.8 36.9 E245 silent
E246 2025-10-10 decay -0.7 36.2 E246 silent
E247 2025-10-17 decay -0.7 35.5 E247 silent
E248 2025-10-24 decay -0.7 34.8 E248 silent
E249 2025-10-31 decay -0.7 34.1 E249 silent
E250 2025-11-07 decay -0.7 33.4 E250 silent
E251 2025-11-14 decay -0.7 32.7 E251 silent
E252 2025-11-22 decay -0.7 32.1 E252 silent
E253 2025-12-06 decay -0.6 31.4 E253 silent
E254 2025-12-13 decay -0.6 30.8 E254 silent
E255 2025-12-19 decay -0.6 30.2 E255 silent
E256 2025-12-31 decay -0.6 29.6 E256 silent
E257 2026-01-10 decay -0.6 29.0 E257 silent
E258 2026-01-17 decay -0.6 28.4 E258 silent
E259 2026-01-30 decay -0.6 27.8 E259 silent
E260 2026-02-07 decay -0.6 27.3 E260 silent
E261 2026-02-13 decay -0.5 26.7 E261 silent
E262 2026-02-28 decay -0.5 26.2 E262 silent
E263 2026-03-06 decay -0.5 25.7 E263 silent
E264 2026-03-13 decay -0.5 25.2 E264 silent
E265 2026-03-19 decay -0.5 24.7 E265 silent
E266 2026-03-27 decay -0.5 24.2 E266 silent
E267 2026-04-03 decay -0.5 23.7 E267 silent
E268 2026-04-10 decay -0.5 23.2 E268 silent
E269 2026-04-17 decay -0.5 22.7 E269 silent
E270 2026-04-24 decay -0.5 22.3 E270 silent
E271 2026-05-01 decay -0.4 21.8 E271 silent
E272 2026-05-08 decay -0.4 21.4 E272 silent
E273 2026-05-15 decay -0.4 21.0 E273 silent
E274 2026-05-22 decay -0.4 20.6 E274 silent
E275 2026-05-29 decay -0.4 20.1 E275 silent
E276 2026-06-13 decay -0.4 19.7 E276 silent
E277 2026-06-19 decay -0.4 19.4 E277 silent
E278 2026-06-26 decay -0.4 19.0 E278 silent
E279 2026-07-03 decay -0.4 18.6 E279 silent
E280 2026-07-11 decay -0.4 18.2 E280 silent