+0.0
net board stance
what this means
96.68
-4.6% · close 2026-09-08
-8% / -0% / +14%
1m / 3m / 12m
-84%
vs SPY since 2022-11-19
61%
of 52w range · -13.6% off high
—
hit rate as primary
Where we stand — 0 live ideas
No active idea holds this ticker. Anything below is history.
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from
score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
Track record on ZM
No closed window has used this ticker as its primary play, so there is no scored record here yet. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.
| idea | call | play | verdict | R | α | closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🤖 Growth multiples have another 10-20% to give back as the 10-year normalizes | ▼ SHORT | adjacent | MISS | -6.2% | -10.4 | 2021-07-17 |
| 📈 Pandemic pull-forward reverses — COVID winners take an estimate double-whammy | ▼ SHORT | adjacent | HIT | +55.1% | +61.1 | 2023-02-24 |
| 🤖 SaaS pricing power expands as category winners entrench | ▲ LONG | adjacent | MISS | -10.7% | -18.1 | 2022-03-13 |
| 🏛️ Microsoft's bundle playbook gets an antitrust remedy | ▼ SHORT | adjacent | MISS | -9.4% | -23.6 | 2025-06-29 |
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding ZM, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
if left unchecked, you will see people abuse this. It is not a big ass to have a la carte pricing and that will make the playing field much, much more competitive.
I don't buy the antitrust arguments on a lot of these cases. I don't think that you're keeping competitive solutions in the market if the benefit of the lower cost product is actually there for the consumer, the customer.
I think what this comes down to is the FTC and the DOJ need to dust off that old consent decree, read it, and figure out whether this makes sense again.
If we don't do that, I do think that Microsoft will use the power of the bundle to systematically dominate enterprise software.
if you're working in the office, you're going to do more e-commerce. And if you're working at home, you're probably going to do less e-commerce. So there's probably some net-net balance. We saw both of them rise together during COVID, but now there's more of an equilibrium being reached.
I mean, everybody made that mistake, right? So, you know, it's just you're right, Chamath. Just own it. Everyone was thinking the same thing. We're talking about how COVID was this acceleration of this virus, and it was going to accelerate all these trends.
I mean, mean reversion is a bitch. If you look at Shopify stock, if you look at Peloton stock, if you look at Affirm stock, if you look at Arc, you know, a lot of these things were trending in a great direction. They had this short-term crazy behavior in the middle of all of this free money, and now they've mean reverted.
RY
Ryan Petersen
support ×2
▼ on
📈 Pandemic pull-forward reverses — COVID winners take an estimate double-whammy
E82 · 2022-05-24
▶ 34:28
And then add to that that consumers are now starting to come back to conferences like this, go back to the restaurants and the clubs and doing the travel. And during the pandemic, everybody just bought stuff. You got to get your dopamine from somewhere and everybody was just buying goods. So that is like a triple whammy for these companies.
So the stocks that got hammered were generally the COVID stocks. It was the Pelotons, the Netflix, Zoom. ... So basically, the COVID stocks have been hammered, but the B2B stocks actually had really good results.
people are realizing now that the burst of activity, especially like in e-commerce type companies that happened during the pandemic, that was not ongoing sustainable growth. It was one time growth ... it was pull forward growth, meaning that growth in the future will be lower because you pulled forward all of that revenue ... So what happened is not only have multiples gone down, but these companies were being comped based on growth rates that were unsustainable. And so now they're all revising their forecasts down. So it's a double whammy.
look, I invest in B2B subscription businesses. I hate B2C subscription businesses. And the reason is just the churn rates. ... your cohorts are growing 20% every year instead of shrinking 50%
so I believe in my own portfolio, and I'm doubling down on all these companies, and I do believe in SaaS. ... So I am a believer in SaaS, but when I see everything going so well, it's SaaS and NASDAQ and S&P and crypto.
there are these businesses that have, I would say, interesting products that are growing well, but they may not actually be very important companies, yet they trade at enormous valuations. ... This is why I think there are some great businesses in SaaS, but I also think there's a lot of head fakes.
You can believe the next three months that we're likely to have more multiple compression in the public markets, right? You could hedge your public book in a variety of ways against that, like we did and announced last December.
And now obviously you have Slack at close to $30 billion. You have DocuSign IPO at $40 billion. You have Zoom at over $100 billion. And so the markets just ended up so much bigger than we ever thought. ... So I've just decided to stop trying to find new ideas and just I mean, like a new thesis and just keep investing in this. ... That's why I'm kind of all in on on SaaS right now.
I think that's a function of pricing power going up for SaaS companies. They become more established and entrenched. Those companies are very profitable. I don't think they're experiencing wage pressure in any way