🤖 ChatGPT takes Google search share and the market starts pricing the decay

Sacks tech 39% · n=53 · E295 (2026-10-30) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:11:34 OPPOSE

“So Google search is still thriving, I think you could say. It's not growing that fast relative to other businesses, but you're not seeing it deteriorate yet.”

Chamath tech 45% · n=84 · E295 (2026-10-30) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:07:49 SUPPORT

“Because I think if this momentum builds, this idea that this franchise is essentially robbing Peter to pay Paul, pulling money from the future into the present to smooth out earnings, the market will react badly to it. You're seeing it today.”

Friedberg tech 55% · n=66 · E295 (2026-10-30) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:03:30 SUPPORT

“As some people have pointed out, this may largely be driven by a change in the pricing algorithm for ads and how Google is now, in some cases, over earning for those clicks. And over time, advertisers will see that, they'll experience that, they'll reduce spend, they'll attrit some dollars, and it won't look as good of a business.”

Keith Rabois (regular guest ×1.0) tech: 4 resolved, unproven · E235 (2025-07-11) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 48:43 SUPPORT

“This is actually what Google should be doing, truthfully. Like I think Google's also, Google Search, Quos Search is toast. And since they have Chrome and they theoretically have a quality team in Gemini, they should be putting these two things together and hoping to compete with chat, GBT. They are going to lose the search game. The assets that are best at Google right now have nothing to do with search. Every other product is the only thing that's going to save that company if they can figure out how to use them.”

Jason tech 53% · n=56 · E232 (2025-06-21) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 33:36 OPPOSE

“Do they lose search share? Does it matter? What I think matters is are their ads more effective? Is their ad network more effective? ... all that data is going to lead to an ad network that performs so much better that even if they lose search share, their ad network is going to continue to grow.”

Chamath tech 45% · n=84 · E232 (2025-06-21) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 32:05 OPPOSE

“if you had to boil down Google's economic North Star metric, right? Not the value North Star metric. The economic North Star metric would be price per click. And I do think that Google is extremely well positioned to pivot that to price per token.”

Chamath tech 45% · n=84 · E229 (2025-05-24) · explicit_prediction · strength 1 ▶ 44:23 OPPOSE · horizon 12mo

“I suspect it will be done in less than a year. And for a large swath of users, they are going to put AI in the front door. I think that's a fait accompli.”

Jason tech 53% · n=56 · E229 (2025-05-24) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 43:49 OPPOSE

“The search results in AI look elegant. They look, dare I say, perplexity like. When you look at them, I would say I would like to have that as my default”

Sacks tech 39% · n=53 · E229 (2025-05-24) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 42:52 OPPOSE POLICY-ADJACENT

“It certainly shows that they're in the game and they're not going to get caught totally flat-footed and let the whole world disrupt them while they're trying to figure out AI. I mean, they are responding now and the market seemed to like it.”

Friedberg tech 55% · n=66 · E229 (2025-05-24) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 38:04 OPPOSE

“I would say if anyone were to identify the week that Google really pivoted into the AI business model, it might be this week. They launched over 15 products at this thing.”

Friedberg tech 55% · n=66 · E227 (2025-05-09) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 52:14 OPPOSE

“if the old paradigm is like measuring search queries and quote market share as a function of search queries, I don't know if I care about having 99% of that or if I'm actually better off having 80% of something that's now three times bigger.”

Jason tech 53% · n=56 · E227 (2025-05-09) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 52:05 OPPOSE

“So you're on to something that the total volume, the total pie could be five, ten times bigger per person.”

Philippe Laffont (guest ×0.5) no tech track record · E227 (2025-05-09) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 40:09 SUPPORT

“is this the next IBM? You're going to stick around for a really, really long time, but you're just not going to be like a company growing as fast as you used to.”

Chamath tech 45% · n=84 · E227 (2025-05-09) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 37:15 SUPPORT · horizon 24mo

“I think that instead of waiting for data, I think that you have to assume that you're gonna go from 99% share to 75% in the next two years, as an example.”