🌍 More market volatility, not less
Chamath's read coming out of the meme-stock episode: the GameStop-style blowups keep recurring because market volatility is structurally rising from here, not settling down.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 37.2 EMBER
DORMANT
band
▲ LONG VIXY
expression · bullish macro
MISS
outcome · R -63.3% · α -77.1%
2022-02-13
window closed
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2021-02-13 → 2022-02-13 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG VIXY (primary play). VIXY fell 63.3% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -63.3% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +13.8% → α = -63.3 − (+13.8) = -77.1% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0▶ MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2021-02-13)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | VIXY | etf | PRIMARY | cleanest listed long-vol vehicle in Feb 2021; note roll decay means the trade can lose even if realized vol rises |
| ▲ LONG | VXX | etf | adjacent | the other short-term VIX futures vehicle, same contango drag |
Mention log
Chamath
macro w=1.06 · n=47
· E54 (2021-11-06) · sentiment · strength 1
▶ 14:41
SUPPORT
· horizon 48mo
“The question is, what do you short against it, so that you can take up the market volatility and you can play spread? ... That's a spread trade that over the next four or five years, where if you expect a lot of market volatility, it makes sense to maybe put some of this kind of stuff on.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -35.5 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E22 2021-02-13 | init | +37.2 | 37.2 | E22 born by Chamath (explicit_prediction x2) [w=1.06] |
| E23 2021-02-20 | decay | -1.5 | 35.7 | E23 silent |
| E24 2021-03-06 | decay | -1.4 | 34.3 | E24 silent |
| E25 2021-03-13 | decay | -1.4 | 32.9 | E25 silent |
| E26 2021-03-20 | decay | -1.3 | 31.6 | E26 silent |
| E27 2021-03-27 | decay | -1.3 | 30.4 | E27 silent |
| E28 2021-04-01 | decay | -1.2 | 29.1 | E28 silent |
| E29 2021-04-17 | decay | -1.2 | 28.0 | E29 silent |
| E30 2021-04-23 | decay | -1.1 | 26.9 | E30 silent |
| E31 2021-05-01 | decay | -1.1 | 25.8 | E31 silent |
| E32 2021-05-13 | decay | -1.0 | 24.8 | E32 silent |
| E33 2021-05-22 | decay | -1.0 | 23.8 | E33 silent |
| E34 2021-05-31 | decay | -1.0 | 22.8 | E34 silent |
| E35 2021-06-13 | decay | -0.9 | 21.9 | E35 silent |
| E36 2021-06-18 | decay | -0.9 | 21.0 | E36 silent |
| E37 2021-06-25 | decay | -0.8 | 20.2 | E37 silent |
| E38 2021-07-03 | decay | -0.8 | 19.4 | E38 silent |
| E39 2021-07-09 | decay | -0.8 | 18.6 | E39 silent |
| E40 2021-07-16 | decay | -0.7 | 17.9 | E40 silent |
| E41 2021-07-23 | decay | -0.7 | 17.1 | E41 silent |
| E42 2021-07-30 | decay | -0.7 | 16.5 | E42 silent |
| E43 2021-08-06 | decay | -0.7 | 15.8 | E43 silent |
| E44 2021-08-28 | decay | -0.6 | 15.2 | E44 silent |
| E45 2021-09-04 | decay | -0.6 | 14.6 | E45 silent |
| E46 2021-09-14 | decay | -0.6 | 14.0 | E46 silent |
| E47 2021-09-18 | decay | -0.6 | 13.4 | E47 silent |
| E49 2021-10-02 | decay | -0.5 | 12.9 | E49 silent |
| E50 2021-10-09 | decay | -0.5 | 12.4 | E50 silent |
| E51 2021-10-16 | decay | -0.5 | 11.9 | E51 silent |
| E52 2021-10-23 | decay | -0.5 | 11.4 | E52 silent |
| E53 2021-10-30 | decay | -0.5 | 10.9 | E53 silent |
| E54 2021-11-06 | reinforce | +11.4 | 22.3 | E54 Chamath support x1 [w=1.06] |
| E55 2021-11-13 | decay | -0.9 | 21.4 | E55 silent |
| E56 2021-11-20 | decay | -0.9 | 20.6 | E56 silent |
| E57 2021-12-04 | decay | -0.8 | 19.7 | E57 silent |
| E58 2021-12-11 | decay | -0.8 | 18.9 | E58 silent |
| E59 2021-12-17 | decay | -0.8 | 18.2 | E59 silent |
| E60 2021-12-23 | decay | -0.7 | 17.5 | E60 silent |
| E61 2021-12-29 | decay | -0.7 | 16.8 | E61 silent |
| E62 2022-01-08 | decay | -0.7 | 16.1 | E62 silent |
| E63 2022-01-15 | decay | -0.6 | 15.5 | E63 silent |
| E64 2022-01-22 | decay | -0.6 | 14.8 | E64 silent |
| E65 2022-01-29 | decay | -0.6 | 14.2 | E65 silent |
| E66 2022-02-05 | decay | -0.6 | 13.7 | E66 silent |
| E67 2022-02-12 | decay | -0.5 | 13.1 | E67 silent |