📈 Payment for order flow and market making survive the GameStop backlash
Despite the post-GameStop political heat, PFOF is the regulated industry-standard model and does not get banned — exchanges and market makers keep monetizing retail order flow, so the firms on the receiving end of that flow keep their economics.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 23.1 EMBER
EMBER
band
▲ LONG VIRT
expression · bullish equities
HIT
outcome · R +26.8% · α +13.1%
2022-02-13
window closed
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2021-02-13 → 2022-02-13 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG VIRT (primary play). VIRT rose 26.8% over the window → direction-adjusted R = +26.8% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +13.8% → α = +26.8 − (+13.8) = +13.1% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
- Rule fired:
▶ HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5 ✓ (R 26.8, α 13.1)· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0· MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a HIT earn 1.0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Sacks
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2021-02-13)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | VIRT | stock | PRIMARY | only listed pure-play market maker monetizing retail order flow — direct read on whether PFOF survives |
| ▲ LONG | CBOE | stock | adjacent | retail options boom flows through its venues — 'exchanges are here to stay' |
| ▲ LONG | SCHW | stock | adjacent | largest listed broker collecting PFOF revenue; Robinhood itself was private at taping |
Mention log
VL
Vlad Tenev
(guest ×0.5)
no equities track record
· E22 (2021-02-13) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 37:27
SUPPORT
“I do think exchanges are here to stay. Market making is here to stay. Market making is a profitable enterprise. And so some level of revenue share between the market maker and the broker makes sense. And it is regulated. So I'm not quite sure what, if any, changes need to come.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -19.2 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E22 2021-02-13 | init | +17.5 | 17.5 | E22 born by Vlad Tenev (explicit_prediction x2) [w=0.50] |
| E23 2021-02-20 | decay | -0.7 | 16.8 | E23 silent |
| E24 2021-03-06 | decay | -0.7 | 16.1 | E24 silent |
| E25 2021-03-13 | decay | -0.6 | 15.5 | E25 silent |
| E26 2021-03-20 | decay | -0.6 | 14.9 | E26 silent |
| E27 2021-03-27 | decay | -0.6 | 14.3 | E27 silent |
| E28 2021-04-01 | decay | -0.6 | 13.7 | E28 silent |
| E29 2021-04-17 | decay | -0.5 | 13.2 | E29 silent |
| E30 2021-04-23 | decay | -0.5 | 12.6 | E30 silent |
| E31 2021-05-01 | decay | -0.5 | 12.1 | E31 silent |
| E32 2021-05-13 | decay | -0.5 | 11.6 | E32 silent |
| E33 2021-05-22 | decay | -0.5 | 11.2 | E33 silent |
| E34 2021-05-31 | decay | -0.4 | 10.7 | E34 silent |
| E35 2021-06-13 | decay | -0.4 | 10.3 | E35 silent |
| E36 2021-06-18 | decay | -0.4 | 9.9 | E36 silent |
| E37 2021-06-25 | decay | -0.4 | 9.5 | E37 silent |
| E38 2021-07-03 | decay | -0.4 | 9.1 | E38 silent |
| E39 2021-07-09 | decay | -0.4 | 8.7 | E39 silent |
| E40 2021-07-16 | decay | -0.3 | 8.4 | E40 silent |
| E41 2021-07-23 | decay | -0.3 | 8.1 | E41 silent |
| E42 2021-07-30 | decay | -0.3 | 7.7 | E42 silent |
| E43 2021-08-06 | decay | -0.3 | 7.4 | E43 silent |
| E44 2021-08-28 | decay | -0.3 | 7.1 | E44 silent |
| E45 2021-09-04 | decay | -0.3 | 6.8 | E45 silent |
| E46 2021-09-14 | decay | -0.3 | 6.6 | E46 silent |
| E47 2021-09-18 | decay | -0.3 | 6.3 | E47 silent |
| E49 2021-10-02 | decay | -0.3 | 6.1 | E49 silent |
| E50 2021-10-09 | decay | -0.2 | 5.8 | E50 silent |
| E51 2021-10-16 | decay | -0.2 | 5.6 | E51 silent |
| E52 2021-10-23 | decay | -0.2 | 5.4 | E52 silent |
| E53 2021-10-30 | decay | -0.2 | 5.1 | E53 silent |
| E54 2021-11-06 | decay | -0.2 | 4.9 | E54 silent |
| E55 2021-11-13 | decay | -0.2 | 4.7 | E55 silent |
| E56 2021-11-20 | decay | -0.2 | 4.5 | E56 silent |
| E57 2021-12-04 | decay | -0.2 | 4.4 | E57 silent |
| E58 2021-12-11 | decay | -0.2 | 4.2 | E58 silent |
| E59 2021-12-17 | decay | -0.2 | 4.0 | E59 silent |
| E60 2021-12-23 | reinforce | +19.1 | 23.1 | E60 Sacks support x2 (new voice) [w=0.89] |
| E61 2021-12-29 | decay | -0.9 | 22.2 | E61 silent |
| E62 2022-01-08 | decay | -0.9 | 21.3 | E62 silent |
| E63 2022-01-15 | decay | -0.9 | 20.5 | E63 silent |
| E64 2022-01-22 | decay | -0.8 | 19.7 | E64 silent |
| E65 2022-01-29 | decay | -0.8 | 18.9 | E65 silent |
| E66 2022-02-05 | decay | -0.8 | 18.1 | E66 silent |
| E67 2022-02-12 | decay | -0.7 | 17.4 | E67 silent |