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🤖 The software recession is over — net new ARR re-accelerates

Sacks calls the end of the 18-month software recession off Jamin Ball's data: after four quarters of negative net new ARR, public SaaS printed positive net new ARR growth in Q3 2023, and his own board meetings are showing green shoots. Enterprise software revenue growth re-accelerates from here even though the valuation reset stands.

0 CONVICTION
peaked 66.3 GREEN
DORMANT
band · contested
▲ LONG CRM
expression · bullish tech
RIGHT
result · return +45.0% · vs SPY +11.1%
2024-12-08
born 2023-12-08 (E156) → window closed
⚠ CONFLICTING IDEA ON THE SAME TICKER — the board is arguing with itself; net it out (ticker view →)
IGV · The $3-4T software industrial complex contracts in 2026 SHORT EMBER 34.3 ← stronger than this idea (10.6)

other ideas on the same ticker, same direction: SaaSpocalypse is overdone for compliance-moat enterprise software 24 (IGV) · SaaSpocalypse is overdone for compliance-moat enterprise software 24 (CRM)

⚖ Why this result

fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set

  1. Window: 2023-12-08 → 2024-12-08 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
  2. The call: ▲ LONG CRM (primary play). CRM rose 45.0% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = +45.0% (the call made money).
  3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +33.9% → vs SPY = +45.0 − (+33.9) = +11.1% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
  4. Rule fired:
    ▶ RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+ ✓ (return 45.0, vs SPY 11.1)
    · HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all
    · WRONG — everything else
  5. Credit: supporters of a RIGHT earn 1.0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Friedberg, Jason, Sacks | opposed: Chamath

Conviction timeline

bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15

Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2023-12-08)

Plays

expressionsymbolkindrelevancerationale
▲ LONG CRMstock PRIMARY the SaaS bellwether Sacks reads net new ARR and seat expansion off
▲ LONG IGVetf adjacent the public software cohort whose net new ARR is the chart he is calling the bottom on
▲ LONG NOWstock adjacent large-cap enterprise SaaS whose ARR growth is a clean read on IT budgets unfreezing

Mention log newest first

Sacks
Sacks tech 39% · n=53 · E189 (2024-07-26) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 7:49 SUPPORT
“Well, all the cloud service providers are doing extremely well. I mean, cloud is still the future of software, and the cloud service providers are still growing really strongly.”
Sacks
Sacks tech 39% · n=53 · E181 (2024-05-31) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:14:00 REVERSAL
“And I'm seeing that a bunch of SaaS companies are kind of hurting today now in the wake of this. They're down like 5%, not 20, but so I wonder if what the market is wondering is whether there's a more general slowdown that we're on the precipice of.”
Chamath
Chamath tech 45% · n=84 · E181 (2024-05-31) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:08:41 OPPOSE
“So I think what the market is voting with their dollars is that these large lumpy monolithic software companies that need big 50, 100 million dollar customers, they're not gonna find them soon”
Friedberg
Friedberg tech 55% · n=66 · E165 (2024-02-09) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 39:03 SUPPORT
“But I don't think that the adoption of software is going to slow down. It certainly seems to be reaccelerating.”
Jason
Jason tech 53% · n=56 · E165 (2024-02-09) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 37:11 SUPPORT
“With the market ripping, and you now got a really efficient company, you're like, hey, can we spend a little bit on SaaS to make the remaining employees even more productive? OK, maybe that's a reasonable discussion. And then people are playing ball in terms of negotiating prices.”
Sacks
Sacks tech 39% · n=53 · E165 (2024-02-09) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 36:49 SUPPORT
“But now we're seeing quarter over quarter growth. So growth is re-accelerating. Growth is higher than it was. So is it going to get to where it was? That probably will take some time, but it feels like the problems in the ecosystem work themselves out, and now we're back to growth again.”
Chamath
Chamath tech 45% · n=84 · E165 (2024-02-09) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 35:33 OPPOSE
“Is that we've re-baselined these businesses. So now what would have looked like just a massive miss over the last two years now looks like a beat because we've just completely reset expectations. Is it that or is it that the economy is actually expanding and we can count on some reasonable growth rates?”
Sacks
Sacks tech 39% · n=53 · E159 (2023-12-29) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:19:16 SUPPORT
“I do think that the whole B2B software industry definitely went through a recession. But fortunately, I think we bottomed out and are starting to see green shoots now. So things are returning to normal.”
Chamath
Chamath tech 45% · n=84 · E156 (2023-12-08) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 39:58 SUPPORT
“I think software revenues are going to rebound.”
Sacks
Sacks tech 39% · n=53 · E156 (2023-12-08) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 38:27 SUPPORT
“I think again, the software recession, I'm calling an end to the software recession.”

Who built this conviction

each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Sacks
Sacks 39%
5 scoring events · 61% of moves
+74.9 / -14.4 → net +60.6
Chamath
Chamath 45%
3 scoring events · 25% of moves
+13.1 / -24.0 → net -10.9
Jason
Jason 53%
1 scoring event · 8% of moves
+11.9 → net +11.9
Friedberg
Friedberg 55%
1 scoring event · 5% of moves
+7.4 → net +7.4

⏳ decay drained -58.4 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one

Score events

episodekindΔafternote
E156 2023-12-08 init +42.0 42.0 E156 born by Sacks (explicit_prediction x3)
E156 2023-12-08 reinforce +13.1 55.0 E156 Chamath support x2 (new voice)
E157 2023-12-16 decay -2.2 52.8 E157 silent
E158 2023-12-23 decay -2.1 50.7 E158 silent
E159 2023-12-29 reinforce +7.4 58.1 E159 Sacks support x2
E160 2024-01-06 decay -2.3 55.8 E160 silent
E161 2024-01-13 decay -2.2 53.6 E161 silent
E162 2024-01-19 decay -2.1 51.4 E162 silent
E163 2024-01-26 decay -2.1 49.4 E163 silent
E164 2024-02-02 decay -2.0 47.4 E164 silent
E165 2024-02-09 oppose -12.0 35.4 E165 Chamath opposes x2
E165 2024-02-09 reinforce +11.6 47.0 E165 Sacks support x3
E165 2024-02-09 reinforce +11.9 58.9 E165 Jason support x2 (new voice)
E165 2024-02-09 reinforce +7.4 66.3 E165 Friedberg support x1 (new voice)
E166 2024-02-16 decay -2.7 63.7 E166 silent
E167 2024-02-23 decay -2.5 61.1 E167 silent
E168 2024-03-01 decay -2.4 58.7 E168 silent
E169 2024-03-08 decay -2.3 56.3 E169 silent
E170 2024-03-15 decay -2.3 54.1 E170 silent
E171 2024-03-22 decay -2.2 51.9 E171 silent
E172 2024-03-29 decay -2.1 49.8 E172 silent
E173 2024-04-05 decay -2.0 47.9 E173 silent
E174 2024-04-12 decay -1.9 45.9 E174 silent
E175 2024-04-19 decay -1.8 44.1 E175 silent
E176 2024-04-26 decay -1.8 42.3 E176 silent
E177 2024-05-03 decay -1.7 40.6 E177 silent
E178 2024-05-10 decay -1.6 39.0 E178 silent
E179 2024-05-17 decay -1.6 37.5 E179 silent
E180 2024-05-24 decay -1.5 36.0 E180 silent
E181 2024-05-31 oppose -12.0 24.0 E181 Chamath opposes x2
E181 2024-05-31 reversal -14.4 9.6 E181 Sacks flips
E182 2024-06-07 decay -0.4 9.2 E182 silent
E183 2024-06-14 decay -0.4 8.8 E183 silent
E184 2024-06-20 decay -0.4 8.5 E184 silent
E185 2024-06-29 decay -0.3 8.1 E185 silent
E186 2024-07-04 decay -0.3 7.8 E186 silent
E187 2024-07-12 decay -0.3 7.5 E187 silent
E188 2024-07-19 decay -0.3 7.2 E188 silent
E189 2024-07-26 reinforce +13.9 21.1 E189 Sacks support x2 (flipped from reversal)
E190 2024-08-02 decay -0.8 20.3 E190 silent
E191 2024-08-09 decay -0.8 19.5 E191 silent
E192 2024-08-16 decay -0.8 18.7 E192 silent
E193 2024-08-23 decay -0.7 17.9 E193 silent
E194 2024-08-30 decay -0.7 17.2 E194 silent
E195 2024-09-06 decay -0.7 16.5 E195 silent
E196 2024-09-20 decay -0.7 15.9 E196 silent
E197 2024-09-27 decay -0.6 15.2 E197 silent
E198 2024-10-03 decay -0.6 14.6 E198 silent
E199 2024-10-11 decay -0.6 14.0 E199 silent
E200 2024-10-18 decay -0.6 13.5 E200 silent
E201 2024-10-25 decay -0.5 12.9 E201 silent
E202 2024-11-01 decay -0.5 12.4 E202 silent
E203 2024-11-08 decay -0.5 11.9 E203 silent
E204 2024-11-16 decay -0.5 11.4 E204 silent
E205 2024-11-23 decay -0.5 11.0 E205 silent
E206 2024-12-07 decay -0.4 10.6 E206 silent