📈 NAR verdict breaks the 6% residential commission cartel
The $1.8B Missouri verdict against the National Association of Realtors plus roughly $13B of follow-on class actions attack the MLS-membership choke point that keeps US residential commissions at ~5.5-6% split buy-side and sell-side. Once the buy-side commission becomes an explicit buyer choice it collapses toward UK-style ~1.3%, compressing a ~$100B/yr commission pool and the 1.6m-agent industry that lives on it - bearish the brokerages and portals whose revenue is a percentage of gross sale price.
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2023-12-23)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ SHORT | RDFN | stock | PRIMARY | residential brokerage whose revenue is a percentage of gross home value |
| ▼ SHORT | OPEN | stock | adjacent | transaction-fee model repriced if commission norms reset industry-wide |
| ▼ SHORT | Z | stock | adjacent | Zillow's agent-advertising revenue is a claim on the same commission pool |
Mention log newest first
“The settlement is likely to be that when you hire a broker, they will give you a form and you'll pick what percentage you want to pay. ... keep an eye on this one folks, because it's going to have a massive impact.”
“if the monopoly breaks on the marketplace, then the business model will get competed away, and there will start to be a change here. And I think that this lawsuit and the settlement ultimately leads to a shift in the industry that could certainly benefit consumers, but could have a negative economic impact because of the number of people that depend on brokerage fees as their job.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -81.2 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E158 2023-12-23 | init | +42.0 | 42.0 | E158 born by Friedberg (explicit_prediction x3) |
| E158 2023-12-23 | reinforce | +13.1 | 55.0 | E158 Sacks support x2 (new voice) |
| E158 2023-12-23 | reinforce | +10.1 | 65.2 | E158 Jason support x2 (new voice) |
| E159 2023-12-29 | decay | -2.6 | 62.6 | E159 silent |
| E160 2024-01-06 | decay | -2.5 | 60.1 | E160 silent |
| E161 2024-01-13 | decay | -2.4 | 57.7 | E161 silent |
| E162 2024-01-19 | decay | -2.3 | 55.3 | E162 silent |
| E163 2024-01-26 | decay | -2.2 | 53.1 | E163 silent |
| E164 2024-02-02 | decay | -2.1 | 51.0 | E164 silent |
| E165 2024-02-09 | decay | -2.0 | 49.0 | E165 silent |
| E166 2024-02-16 | decay | -2.0 | 47.0 | E166 silent |
| E167 2024-02-23 | decay | -1.9 | 45.1 | E167 silent |
| E168 2024-03-01 | decay | -1.8 | 43.3 | E168 silent |
| E169 2024-03-08 | decay | -1.7 | 41.6 | E169 silent |
| E170 2024-03-15 | decay | -1.7 | 39.9 | E170 silent |
| E171 2024-03-22 | reinforce | +10.8 | 50.7 | E171 Friedberg support x3 |
| E171 2024-03-22 | reinforce | +8.9 | 59.6 | E171 Chamath support x1 (new voice) |
| E171 2024-03-22 | reinforce | +7.3 | 66.9 | E171 Sacks support x3 |
| E171 2024-03-22 | reinforce | +5.0 | 71.8 | E171 Jason support x2 |
| E172 2024-03-29 | decay | -2.9 | 69.0 | E172 silent |
| E173 2024-04-05 | decay | -2.8 | 66.2 | E173 silent |
| E174 2024-04-12 | decay | -2.6 | 63.6 | E174 silent |
| E175 2024-04-19 | decay | -2.5 | 61.0 | E175 silent |
| E176 2024-04-26 | decay | -2.4 | 58.6 | E176 silent |
| E177 2024-05-03 | decay | -2.3 | 56.2 | E177 silent |
| E178 2024-05-10 | decay | -2.2 | 54.0 | E178 silent |
| E179 2024-05-17 | decay | -2.2 | 51.8 | E179 silent |
| E180 2024-05-24 | decay | -2.1 | 49.8 | E180 silent |
| E181 2024-05-31 | decay | -2.0 | 47.8 | E181 silent |
| E182 2024-06-07 | decay | -1.9 | 45.9 | E182 silent |
| E183 2024-06-14 | decay | -1.8 | 44.0 | E183 silent |
| E184 2024-06-20 | decay | -1.8 | 42.3 | E184 silent |
| E185 2024-06-29 | decay | -1.7 | 40.6 | E185 silent |
| E186 2024-07-04 | decay | -1.6 | 38.9 | E186 silent |
| E187 2024-07-12 | decay | -1.6 | 37.4 | E187 silent |
| E188 2024-07-19 | decay | -1.5 | 35.9 | E188 silent |
| E189 2024-07-26 | decay | -1.4 | 34.5 | E189 silent |
| E190 2024-08-02 | decay | -1.4 | 33.1 | E190 silent |
| E191 2024-08-09 | decay | -1.3 | 31.8 | E191 silent |
| E192 2024-08-16 | decay | -1.3 | 30.5 | E192 silent |
| E193 2024-08-23 | decay | -1.2 | 29.3 | E193 silent |
| E194 2024-08-30 | decay | -1.2 | 28.1 | E194 silent |
| E195 2024-09-06 | decay | -1.1 | 27.0 | E195 silent |
| E196 2024-09-20 | decay | -1.1 | 25.9 | E196 silent |
| E197 2024-09-27 | decay | -1.0 | 24.9 | E197 silent |
| E198 2024-10-03 | decay | -1.0 | 23.9 | E198 silent |
| E199 2024-10-11 | decay | -1.0 | 22.9 | E199 silent |
| E200 2024-10-18 | decay | -0.9 | 22.0 | E200 silent |
| E201 2024-10-25 | decay | -0.9 | 21.1 | E201 silent |
| E202 2024-11-01 | decay | -0.8 | 20.3 | E202 silent |
| E203 2024-11-08 | decay | -0.8 | 19.5 | E203 silent |
| E204 2024-11-16 | decay | -0.8 | 18.7 | E204 silent |
| E205 2024-11-23 | decay | -0.7 | 17.9 | E205 silent |
| E206 2024-12-07 | decay | -0.7 | 17.2 | E206 silent |
| E207 2024-12-13 | decay | -0.7 | 16.5 | E207 silent |
| E208 2024-12-20 | decay | -0.7 | 15.9 | E208 silent |