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📈 NAR verdict breaks the 6% residential commission cartel

The $1.8B Missouri verdict against the National Association of Realtors plus roughly $13B of follow-on class actions attack the MLS-membership choke point that keeps US residential commissions at ~5.5-6% split buy-side and sell-side. Once the buy-side commission becomes an explicit buyer choice it collapses toward UK-style ~1.3%, compressing a ~$100B/yr commission pool and the 1.6m-agent industry that lives on it - bearish the brokerages and portals whose revenue is a percentage of gross sale price.

0 CONVICTION
peaked 67.5 GREEN
DORMANT
band
▼ SHORT RDFN
expression · bearish equities
entry flag
⏰ 626d overdue
eval pending · was due 2024-12-23 (unresolved — e.g. no price data)

Conviction timeline

bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15

Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2023-12-23)

Plays

expressionsymbolkindrelevancerationale
▼ SHORT RDFNstock PRIMARY residential brokerage whose revenue is a percentage of gross home value
▼ SHORT OPENstock adjacent transaction-fee model repriced if commission norms reset industry-wide
▼ SHORT Zstock adjacent Zillow's agent-advertising revenue is a claim on the same commission pool

Mention log

Friedberg
Friedberg equities w=0.87 · n=120 · E158 (2023-12-23) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:30:38 SUPPORT
“if the monopoly breaks on the marketplace, then the business model will get competed away, and there will start to be a change here. And I think that this lawsuit and the settlement ultimately leads to a shift in the industry that could certainly benefit consumers, but could have a negative economic impact because of the number of people that depend on brokerage fees as their job.”
Sacks
Sacks equities w=0.89 · n=96 · E158 (2023-12-23) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:25:51 SUPPORT
“Here's how you'll know that the monopoly has ended, is when the buy side commission goes away.”
Jason
Jason equities w=0.97 · n=105 · E158 (2023-12-23) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:31:14 SUPPORT
“The settlement is likely to be that when you hire a broker, they will give you a form and you'll pick what percentage you want to pay. ... keep an eye on this one folks, because it's going to have a massive impact.”
Friedberg
Friedberg equities w=0.87 · n=120 · E171 (2024-03-22) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 34:05 SUPPORT
“I do project and I do expect that much of what is charged on a commission basis, on a percent of home value today, will change to being a fixed fee and a flat fee basis.”
Chamath
Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E171 (2024-03-22) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 37:30 SUPPORT
“Is it going to change the profitability of a realtor? Pretty meaningfully, right?”
Sacks
Sacks equities w=0.89 · n=96 · E171 (2024-03-22) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 39:58 SUPPORT
“No buyer would ever voluntarily agree to pay this massive commission. It's not worth it. So it's game over for the realtors if buyers are forced to pay their own brokers commission.”
Jason
Jason equities w=0.97 · n=105 · E171 (2024-03-22) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 43:14 SUPPORT
“It should be that you get a flat rate, $10,000 at a million, and then you get 10% over a million or something.”

Who built this conviction

each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Friedberg
Friedberg w=0.87
2 scoring events · 51% of moves
+46.2 → net +46.2
Sacks
Sacks w=0.89
2 scoring events · 22% of moves
+19.9 → net +19.9
Jason
Jason w=0.97
2 scoring events · 18% of moves
+16.7 → net +16.7
Chamath
Chamath w=0.84
1 scoring event · 9% of moves
+8.0 → net +8.0

⏳ decay drained -75.9 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one

Score events

episodekindΔafternote
E158 2023-12-23 init +36.4 36.4 E158 born by Friedberg (explicit_prediction x3) [w=0.87]
E158 2023-12-23 reinforce +12.7 49.1 E158 Sacks support x2 (new voice) [w=0.89]
E158 2023-12-23 reinforce +11.1 60.2 E158 Jason support x2 (new voice) [w=0.97]
E159 2023-12-29 decay -2.4 57.8 E159 silent
E160 2024-01-06 decay -2.3 55.5 E160 silent
E161 2024-01-13 decay -2.2 53.3 E161 silent
E162 2024-01-19 decay -2.1 51.1 E162 silent
E163 2024-01-26 decay -2.0 49.1 E163 silent
E164 2024-02-02 decay -2.0 47.1 E164 silent
E165 2024-02-09 decay -1.9 45.2 E165 silent
E166 2024-02-16 decay -1.8 43.4 E166 silent
E167 2024-02-23 decay -1.7 41.7 E167 silent
E168 2024-03-01 decay -1.7 40.0 E168 silent
E169 2024-03-08 decay -1.6 38.4 E169 silent
E170 2024-03-15 decay -1.5 36.9 E170 silent
E171 2024-03-22 reinforce +9.8 46.7 E171 Friedberg support x3 [w=0.87]
E171 2024-03-22 reinforce +8.0 54.8 E171 Chamath support x1 (new voice) [w=0.84]
E171 2024-03-22 reinforce +7.2 62.0 E171 Sacks support x3 [w=0.89]
E171 2024-03-22 reinforce +5.5 67.5 E171 Jason support x2 [w=0.97]
E172 2024-03-29 decay -2.7 64.8 E172 silent
E173 2024-04-05 decay -2.6 62.2 E173 silent
E174 2024-04-12 decay -2.5 59.7 E174 silent
E175 2024-04-19 decay -2.4 57.3 E175 silent
E176 2024-04-26 decay -2.3 55.0 E176 silent
E177 2024-05-03 decay -2.2 52.8 E177 silent
E178 2024-05-10 decay -2.1 50.7 E178 silent
E179 2024-05-17 decay -2.0 48.7 E179 silent
E180 2024-05-24 decay -1.9 46.8 E180 silent
E181 2024-05-31 decay -1.9 44.9 E181 silent
E182 2024-06-07 decay -1.8 43.1 E182 silent
E183 2024-06-14 decay -1.7 41.4 E183 silent
E184 2024-06-20 decay -1.7 39.7 E184 silent
E185 2024-06-29 decay -1.6 38.1 E185 silent
E186 2024-07-04 decay -1.5 36.6 E186 silent
E187 2024-07-12 decay -1.5 35.1 E187 silent
E188 2024-07-19 decay -1.4 33.7 E188 silent
E189 2024-07-26 decay -1.3 32.4 E189 silent
E190 2024-08-02 decay -1.3 31.1 E190 silent
E191 2024-08-09 decay -1.2 29.8 E191 silent
E192 2024-08-16 decay -1.2 28.6 E192 silent
E193 2024-08-23 decay -1.1 27.5 E193 silent
E194 2024-08-30 decay -1.1 26.4 E194 silent
E195 2024-09-06 decay -1.1 25.3 E195 silent
E196 2024-09-20 decay -1.0 24.3 E196 silent
E197 2024-09-27 decay -1.0 23.4 E197 silent
E198 2024-10-03 decay -0.9 22.4 E198 silent
E199 2024-10-11 decay -0.9 21.5 E199 silent
E200 2024-10-18 decay -0.9 20.7 E200 silent
E201 2024-10-25 decay -0.8 19.8 E201 silent
E202 2024-11-01 decay -0.8 19.0 E202 silent
E203 2024-11-08 decay -0.8 18.3 E203 silent
E204 2024-11-16 decay -0.7 17.6 E204 silent
E205 2024-11-23 decay -0.7 16.9 E205 silent
E206 2024-12-07 decay -0.7 16.2 E206 silent
E207 2024-12-13 decay -0.6 15.5 E207 silent
E208 2024-12-20 decay -0.6 14.9 E208 silent