Vornado Realty Trust

Sacks support ×2 ▼ on 📈 The CRE refinancing wall bites — buildings go back to the banks E241 · 2025-08-29 ▶ 1:07:02

There's 2.2 trillion of CRE debt maturing before 2028... what I'm seeing is that some real estate developers are starting to lose buildings now... a building that was cash flowing, at that higher interest rate it might have negative cash flow... I do think that there is a lot of risk in the economy in this sector because of this wall of commercial real estate debt that's coming due.

It'll take a year, two years for those policies to actually hit and destroy all of New York.

It's safe. Yeah. It's safe right now. We'll see on November 4th. You know, as you probably heard, on July 4th was the first time in recorded history that there were no shootings or no murders in New York on that day. So right now, things are in pretty good shape, but we may be leaving New York quickly.

Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 📈 Mamdani's New York drives capital flight and a property crash E233 · 2025-06-28 ▶ 1:00:52

But I would be short New York real estate. I think it's going to crash and burn, and then we'll pick up the pieces and we'll reset.

Jason support ×2 ▼ on 📈 Mamdani's New York drives capital flight and a property crash E233 · 2025-06-28 ▶ 46:40

two thirds of the tax base in New York is paid for by the top 10 percent who are leaving. People will leave. They will see that Austin and Miami are fantastic cities to live in at half the price, a third of the price, and you get a tax break.

NVIDIA, last I checked, is doing pretty damn well, and Jensen is on the record as saying he doesn't give a shit about where you work... And so I guess I'm just skeptical of flat shoulds in this space.

People just said a lot of s**t during the pandemic. Do you remember, it's like, oh, handshakes are going to be over, business travel is going to be over, every company is going to be fully remote... I would say Stripe broadly is in a pretty similar spot where it was beforehand, which is most people go into an office.

Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 📈 Return-to-office wins - remote work retreats outside an elite minority E216 · 2025-02-21 ▶ 28:33

So I think it's important to get the kind of mentoring you get by being in an office. And in the absence of that, I think these young people, like Jamie said, are totally lost.

Friedberg support ×2 ▲ on 📈 Return-to-office wins - remote work retreats outside an elite minority E216 · 2025-02-21 ▶ 23:36

leaders can lead from the front, speak directly and say, this is the way things are going to be. My job is not to coddle my employees.

Sacks support ×2 ▲ on 📈 Return-to-office wins - remote work retreats outside an elite minority E192 · 2024-08-16 ▶ 54:17

It's much more productive because I think innovation happens as a team. You need collaboration and it's way easier to do that when everyone is together in the same place.

Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 📈 Return-to-office wins - remote work retreats outside an elite minority E192 · 2024-08-16 ▶ 52:40

And it turns out the best of our companies, like when I rank my portfolio, the ones that are doing the best are in total different industries. But the single consistent theme is we are all back together in person.

Jason support ×2 ▲ on 📈 Return-to-office wins - remote work retreats outside an elite minority E192 · 2024-08-16 ▶ 50:01

So now that you have this era of being fit and you don't need as many people from AI, I think everybody's coming back to the office unless you are part of the 20% of truly elite workers.

Friedberg support ×2 ▼ on 📈 WeWork's Chapter 11 resets its leases at 60 cents - landlords eat it, the distressed buyer wins E152 · 2023-11-03 ▶ 41:38

the business is just drowning in these lease obligations and to restructure 777 lease obligations in this environment that we're talking about while doing what Chamath is saying, lowering rents to attract employers to show up and actually rent space from them is obviously causing the business model to distort even worse than it has been historically.

Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 📈 WeWork's Chapter 11 resets its leases at 60 cents - landlords eat it, the distressed buyer wins E152 · 2023-11-03 ▶ 45:20

Oh my God, you just convinced me. Let's go buy it.

Sacks support ×3 ▼ on 📈 WeWork's Chapter 11 resets its leases at 60 cents - landlords eat it, the distressed buyer wins E152 · 2023-11-03 ▶ 43:02

There's no question that WeWork has been a capital destruction machine. That being said, I actually think that some private equity player is going to buy this out of bankruptcy and make a fortune.

Chamath support ×3 ▼ on 📈 Office commercial real estate reckoning — SF towers go to the banks E152 · 2023-11-03 ▶ 30:21

I think you could give it to me for zero and I wouldn't bring my team back there.

Sacks support ×3 ▼ on 📈 Office commercial real estate reckoning — SF towers go to the banks E152 · 2023-11-03 ▶ 33:10

for San Francisco, I'd say probably half the debt should be written off... there'll be about 20 more that are coming to market that will trade in the next year. It's going to be fire sale after fire sale.

Friedberg support ×3 ▼ on 📈 Office commercial real estate reckoning — SF towers go to the banks E152 · 2023-11-03 ▶ 22:05

The $3 trillion of debt that we just mentioned that's sitting on all the bank's balance sheets is all being held at par. They're not discounting it at all, and they're not marking it as being impaired in any way... there's a real risk in the market that I don't think has been fully accounted for, that we're starting to see the cracks.

Sacks support ×2 ▼ on 📈 Office commercial real estate reckoning — SF towers go to the banks E146 · 2023-09-22 ▶ 31:04

The commercial real estate industry is on its last legs. I think they're starting to throw the keys back to the bank and start forfeiting buildings because they can't refight an attractive rate.

Sacks support ×3 ▼ on 📈 Office commercial real estate reckoning — SF towers go to the banks E142 · 2023-08-18 ▶ 1:09:23

I got a building that's worth about $15 million. It's an office building, okay? There's a $9 million loan on it that is coming up to be refinanced at the end of the year... They agreed to give me $2.4 million out of the nine secured by the building. That's it. They wouldn't roll over the nine.

Brad Gerstner support ×2 ▼ on 📈 Office commercial real estate reckoning — SF towers go to the banks E136 · 2023-07-09 ▶ 47:06

I know, but the other side of this is the trend, again, there is no doubt oversupply and a problem, particularly in a place like San Francisco, where we're going to see some blowups because nobody wants to, you know, to enter a long-term lease in a city that's under siege.

Sacks support ×2 ▼ on 📈 Office commercial real estate reckoning — SF towers go to the banks E136 · 2023-07-09 ▶ 40:33

It hasn't helped the commercial real estate guys, I don't think. That's why there are still, I think, huge problems in the commercial real estate sector.

Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 📈 Office commercial real estate reckoning — SF towers go to the banks E131 · 2023-06-02 ▶ 11:59

And we have fiscal instability. We're about to talk about it today, but the home market could implode in the United States. The commercial real estate market has already imploded.

Sacks support ×3 ▼ on 📈 Office commercial real estate reckoning — SF towers go to the banks E129 · 2023-05-19 ▶ 1:11:14

So I think we've got not just a huge commercial real estate problem, but it's going to be a big banking problem as basically people stop pretending. Right now they're trying to restructure loans. It's called pretend and extend. You reduce the rate on the loan but add term to it. But that only works for so long. If this keeps going, if the market keeps looking like this, I think we're going to have a real problem. And that will be a problem in the banking system.

Jason support ×2 ▼ on 📈 Office commercial real estate reckoning — SF towers go to the banks E126 · 2023-04-28 ▶ 36:48

It's going up for sale. And they believe, according to the Wall Street Journal, that bids will come in at $60 million, an 80% decline. And we talked about this commercial real estate would have this moment. A lot of the banks, the smaller regional banks, own this debt.