🏛️ Nippon Steel / US Steel gets blocked whoever wins
Chamath's named-deal call: the Nippon Steel bid for US Steel gets stopped on political rather than competition grounds, and it gets stopped under either administration — Biden on labour/national-security framing, Trump on a hollowing-out-middle-America framing. Bearish the arb spread in X.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 35.7 EMBER
DORMANT
band
▼ SHORT X
expression · bearish politics-market
—
entry flag
⏰ 523d overdue
eval pending · was due 2025-04-05 (unresolved — e.g. no price data)
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2024-04-05)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ SHORT | X | stock | PRIMARY | target of the Nippon Steel bid; trades at a discount to deal price that widens if it is blocked |
| ▼ SHORT | CLF | stock | adjacent | the losing domestic bidder, back in play if the Japanese deal dies |
Mention log
Chamath
politics-market w=1.02 · n=96
· E173 (2024-04-05) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 45:15
SUPPORT
“If you look at the non-big tech M&A deals, they're going to get slowed down for different reasons. So, for example, like the big US deal merger with Nippon Steel that was announced, Biden has one set of issues. But I suspect, you know, if Donald Trump were to get elected, his issues will be more about further hollowing out middle America. And so that deal will probably get stopped for different reasons.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -30.9 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E173 2024-04-05 | init | +35.7 | 35.7 | E173 born by Chamath (explicit_prediction x2) [w=1.02] |
| E174 2024-04-12 | decay | -1.4 | 34.3 | E174 silent |
| E175 2024-04-19 | decay | -1.4 | 32.9 | E175 silent |
| E176 2024-04-26 | decay | -1.3 | 31.6 | E176 silent |
| E177 2024-05-03 | decay | -1.3 | 30.3 | E177 silent |
| E178 2024-05-10 | decay | -1.2 | 29.1 | E178 silent |
| E179 2024-05-17 | decay | -1.2 | 28.0 | E179 silent |
| E180 2024-05-24 | decay | -1.1 | 26.8 | E180 silent |
| E181 2024-05-31 | decay | -1.1 | 25.8 | E181 silent |
| E182 2024-06-07 | decay | -1.0 | 24.7 | E182 silent |
| E183 2024-06-14 | decay | -1.0 | 23.8 | E183 silent |
| E184 2024-06-20 | decay | -1.0 | 22.8 | E184 silent |
| E185 2024-06-29 | decay | -0.9 | 21.9 | E185 silent |
| E186 2024-07-04 | decay | -0.9 | 21.0 | E186 silent |
| E187 2024-07-12 | decay | -0.8 | 20.2 | E187 silent |
| E188 2024-07-19 | decay | -0.8 | 19.4 | E188 silent |
| E189 2024-07-26 | decay | -0.8 | 18.6 | E189 silent |
| E190 2024-08-02 | decay | -0.7 | 17.8 | E190 silent |
| E191 2024-08-09 | decay | -0.7 | 17.1 | E191 silent |
| E192 2024-08-16 | decay | -0.7 | 16.4 | E192 silent |
| E193 2024-08-23 | decay | -0.7 | 15.8 | E193 silent |
| E194 2024-08-30 | decay | -0.6 | 15.2 | E194 silent |
| E195 2024-09-06 | decay | -0.6 | 14.6 | E195 silent |
| E196 2024-09-20 | decay | -0.6 | 14.0 | E196 silent |
| E197 2024-09-27 | decay | -0.6 | 13.4 | E197 silent |
| E198 2024-10-03 | decay | -0.5 | 12.9 | E198 silent |
| E199 2024-10-11 | decay | -0.5 | 12.4 | E199 silent |
| E200 2024-10-18 | decay | -0.5 | 11.9 | E200 silent |
| E201 2024-10-25 | decay | -0.5 | 11.4 | E201 silent |
| E202 2024-11-01 | decay | -0.5 | 10.9 | E202 silent |
| E203 2024-11-08 | decay | -0.4 | 10.5 | E203 silent |
| E204 2024-11-16 | decay | -0.4 | 10.1 | E204 silent |
| E205 2024-11-23 | decay | -0.4 | 9.7 | E205 silent |
| E206 2024-12-07 | decay | -0.4 | 9.3 | E206 silent |
| E207 2024-12-13 | decay | -0.4 | 8.9 | E207 silent |
| E208 2024-12-20 | decay | -0.4 | 8.6 | E208 silent |
| E209 2025-01-04 | decay | -0.3 | 8.2 | E209 silent |
| E210 2025-01-11 | decay | -0.3 | 7.9 | E210 silent |
| E211 2025-01-18 | decay | -0.3 | 7.6 | E211 silent |
| E212 2025-01-25 | decay | -0.3 | 7.3 | E212 silent |
| E213 2025-01-31 | decay | -0.3 | 7.0 | E213 silent |
| E214 2025-02-07 | decay | -0.3 | 6.7 | E214 silent |
| E215 2025-02-15 | decay | -0.3 | 6.4 | E215 silent |
| E216 2025-02-21 | decay | -0.3 | 6.2 | E216 silent |
| E217 2025-03-01 | decay | -0.2 | 5.9 | E217 silent |
| E218 2025-03-08 | decay | -0.2 | 5.7 | E218 silent |
| E219 2025-03-15 | decay | -0.2 | 5.5 | E219 silent |
| E220 2025-03-22 | decay | -0.2 | 5.2 | E220 silent |
| E221 2025-03-29 | decay | -0.2 | 5.0 | E221 silent |
| E222 2025-04-05 | decay | -0.2 | 4.8 | E222 silent |