⚡ Distributed backup power boom — generators and rooftop solar
Heat-wave AC demand, lost hydro and fire-driven outages push Californians (and the wider west) to buy their own power: home standby and portable generators, rooftop solar plus batteries.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 42.3 EMBER
DORMANT
band
▲ LONG GNRC
expression · bullish energy
MISS
outcome · R -47.2% · α -37.7%
2022-07-09
window closed
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2021-07-09 → 2022-07-09 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG GNRC (primary play). GNRC fell 47.2% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -47.2% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned -9.5% → α = -47.2 − (-9.5) = -37.7% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0▶ MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Friedberg, Jason | proxy-sensitive: ENPH→HIT (+17.8%)
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2021-07-09)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | GNRC | stock | PRIMARY | Generac is the pure-play on the home standby/portable generator push Friedberg forecasts and Jason is personally buying |
| ▲ LONG | ENPH | stock | adjacent | solar-plus-battery microinverters are the 'get your own power' route Friedberg names |
| ▲ LONG | RUN | stock | adjacent | residential solar installer levered to the same rooftop self-supply demand |
Mention log
Friedberg
energy w=0.78 · n=18
· E39 (2021-07-09) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 9:11
SUPPORT
“I think there's going to be a big kind of power generator push, right? Distributed power has always been something. That's the whole point of solar. You get the solar on your roof. You get your own power.”
Jason
energy w=1.00 · n=17
· E39 (2021-07-09) · positioning · strength 2
▶ 8:57
SUPPORT
“And we're going to put in a power generator, which I know not everybody is able to do. But you can buy a portable one for as little as 300 or 400 bucks, I think, now. So a portable generator in case you lose power, stock up on everything else.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -35.2 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E39 2021-07-09 | init | +30.0 | 30.0 | E39 born by Jason (positioning x2) |
| E39 2021-07-09 | reinforce | +12.3 | 42.3 | E39 Friedberg support x2 (new voice) [w=0.78] |
| E40 2021-07-16 | decay | -1.7 | 40.6 | E40 silent |
| E41 2021-07-23 | decay | -1.6 | 38.9 | E41 silent |
| E42 2021-07-30 | decay | -1.6 | 37.4 | E42 silent |
| E43 2021-08-06 | decay | -1.5 | 35.9 | E43 silent |
| E44 2021-08-28 | decay | -1.4 | 34.4 | E44 silent |
| E45 2021-09-04 | decay | -1.4 | 33.1 | E45 silent |
| E46 2021-09-14 | decay | -1.3 | 31.7 | E46 silent |
| E47 2021-09-18 | decay | -1.3 | 30.5 | E47 silent |
| E49 2021-10-02 | decay | -1.2 | 29.3 | E49 silent |
| E50 2021-10-09 | decay | -1.2 | 28.1 | E50 silent |
| E51 2021-10-16 | decay | -1.1 | 27.0 | E51 silent |
| E52 2021-10-23 | decay | -1.1 | 25.9 | E52 silent |
| E53 2021-10-30 | decay | -1.0 | 24.9 | E53 silent |
| E54 2021-11-06 | decay | -1.0 | 23.9 | E54 silent |
| E55 2021-11-13 | decay | -1.0 | 22.9 | E55 silent |
| E56 2021-11-20 | decay | -0.9 | 22.0 | E56 silent |
| E57 2021-12-04 | decay | -0.9 | 21.1 | E57 silent |
| E58 2021-12-11 | decay | -0.8 | 20.3 | E58 silent |
| E59 2021-12-17 | decay | -0.8 | 19.5 | E59 silent |
| E60 2021-12-23 | decay | -0.8 | 18.7 | E60 silent |
| E61 2021-12-29 | decay | -0.7 | 17.9 | E61 silent |
| E62 2022-01-08 | decay | -0.7 | 17.2 | E62 silent |
| E63 2022-01-15 | decay | -0.7 | 16.5 | E63 silent |
| E64 2022-01-22 | decay | -0.7 | 15.9 | E64 silent |
| E65 2022-01-29 | decay | -0.6 | 15.2 | E65 silent |
| E66 2022-02-05 | decay | -0.6 | 14.6 | E66 silent |
| E67 2022-02-12 | decay | -0.6 | 14.0 | E67 silent |
| E68 2022-02-19 | decay | -0.6 | 13.5 | E68 silent |
| E70 2022-02-24 | decay | -0.5 | 12.9 | E70 silent |
| E71 2022-03-05 | decay | -0.5 | 12.4 | E71 silent |
| E72 2022-03-19 | decay | -0.5 | 11.9 | E72 silent |
| E73 2022-03-26 | decay | -0.5 | 11.4 | E73 silent |
| E74 2022-04-01 | decay | -0.5 | 11.0 | E74 silent |
| E75 2022-04-09 | decay | -0.4 | 10.5 | E75 silent |
| E76 2022-04-16 | decay | -0.4 | 10.1 | E76 silent |
| E77 2022-04-23 | decay | -0.4 | 9.7 | E77 silent |
| E78 2022-04-30 | decay | -0.4 | 9.3 | E78 silent |
| E79 2022-05-07 | decay | -0.4 | 9.0 | E79 silent |
| E80 2022-05-13 | decay | -0.4 | 8.6 | E80 silent |
| E81 2022-05-23 | decay | -0.3 | 8.3 | E81 silent |
| E82 2022-05-24 | decay | -0.3 | 7.9 | E82 silent |
| E84 2022-06-24 | decay | -0.3 | 7.6 | E84 silent |
| E85 2022-06-30 | decay | -0.3 | 7.3 | E85 silent |
| E86 2022-07-08 | decay | -0.3 | 7.0 | E86 silent |