🪙 Tether is a fraud and the peg breaks
USDT's ~$60B of issuance is not fully dollar-backed — the New York AG settlement is the receipt — and the peg breaks once redemptions stress the system.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 43.3 EMBER
DORMANT
band · contested
▼ SHORT USDT-USD
expression · bearish crypto
PARTIAL
outcome · R +0.0% · α +5.3%
2022-08-06
window closed
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2021-08-06 → 2022-08-06 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▼ SHORT USDT-USD (primary play). USDT-USD fell 0.0% over the window → direction-adjusted R = +0.0% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned -5.2%
→ α = +0.0 − (-5.2) = +5.3%
— what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
Stock-selection read: -5.2% — did USDT-USD move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call beat the index outright.
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5▶ PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0· MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a PARTIAL earn 0.5 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Jason | opposed: Chamath, Sacks
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2021-08-06)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ SHORT | USDT-USD | crypto | PRIMARY | direct peg test — a break shows up in USDT's dollar price. Routed via Yahoo rather than cg:tether because CoinGecko's free tier only serves ~365 days and would silently truncate a 2021 window |
| ▼ SHORT | cg:tether | crypto | adjacent | the thesis resolves as a USDT de-peg or collapse; a held peg is a miss (via merged idea tether-reserves-fraud-2021) |
Mention log
Jason
crypto w=0.69 · n=13
· E43 (2021-08-06) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 1:04:29
SUPPORT
“But I will say that my fraud of the moment, the one that's making my Spidey sense go crazy is Tether. USDT. These guys are, I mean, this feels like it is going to be a 60 billion. ... And then over time, we find out maybe they don't have a dollar in their bank account for each one. The New York Attorney General finds them $18 million says you can't work with anybody in New York. They say we're not a fraud. And I'm like, well, what about the Attorney General who said you were a fucking fraud?”
Chamath
crypto w=1.00 · n=20
· E51 (2021-10-16) · sentiment · strength 2
▶ 1:05:29
OPPOSE
“And the fine was 42 million, which is like, who fucking cares 42 million? And it was between them and another firm. So either the CFTC completely got the fine wrong and they missed a zero or two zeros, or this was not nearly as big as you thought it was.”
BR
Brian Armstrong
(guest ×0.5)
no crypto track record
· E77 (2022-04-23) · positioning · strength 2
▶ 46:48
OPPOSE
“Well, we're not participating directly, but we support as many assets as people want to use. And that is one of the ones that we've supported people to deposit and withdraw in Coinbase. ... I'm not an expert on Tether. My understanding is that there have been some investigations and enforcement actions which have required them to go in there and clean up some things. And our digital asset listing group kind of looked at a lot of this in depth and made that judgment call that where they were and where they are now.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -25.6 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E43 2021-08-06 | init | +29.1 | 29.1 | E43 born by Jason (explicit_prediction x3) [w=0.69] |
| E43 2021-08-06 | reinforce | +14.2 | 43.3 | E43 Sacks support x1 (new voice) [w=1.11] |
| E44 2021-08-28 | decay | -1.7 | 41.5 | E44 silent |
| E45 2021-09-04 | decay | -1.7 | 39.9 | E45 silent |
| E46 2021-09-14 | decay | -1.6 | 38.3 | E46 silent |
| E47 2021-09-18 | decay | -1.5 | 36.7 | E47 silent |
| E49 2021-10-02 | decay | -1.5 | 35.3 | E49 silent |
| E50 2021-10-09 | decay | -1.4 | 33.9 | E50 silent |
| E51 2021-10-16 | oppose | -12.0 | 21.9 | E51 Chamath opposes x2 |
| E51 2021-10-16 | oppose | -13.3 | 8.5 | E51 Sacks opposes x2 [w=1.11] |
| E51 2021-10-16 | reinforce | +11.4 | 19.9 | E51 Jason support x3 [w=0.69] |
| E52 2021-10-23 | decay | -0.8 | 19.1 | E52 silent |
| E53 2021-10-30 | decay | -0.8 | 18.4 | E53 silent |
| E54 2021-11-06 | decay | -0.7 | 17.6 | E54 silent |
| E55 2021-11-13 | decay | -0.7 | 16.9 | E55 silent |
| E56 2021-11-20 | decay | -0.7 | 16.2 | E56 silent |
| E57 2021-12-04 | decay | -0.7 | 15.6 | E57 silent |
| E58 2021-12-11 | decay | -0.6 | 15.0 | E58 silent |
| E59 2021-12-17 | decay | -0.6 | 14.4 | E59 silent |
| E60 2021-12-23 | decay | -0.6 | 13.8 | E60 silent |
| E61 2021-12-29 | decay | -0.6 | 13.2 | E61 silent |
| E62 2022-01-08 | decay | -0.5 | 12.7 | E62 silent |
| E63 2022-01-15 | decay | -0.5 | 12.2 | E63 silent |
| E64 2022-01-22 | decay | -0.5 | 11.7 | E64 silent |
| E65 2022-01-29 | decay | -0.5 | 11.3 | E65 silent |
| E66 2022-02-05 | decay | -0.5 | 10.8 | E66 silent |
| E67 2022-02-12 | decay | -0.4 | 10.4 | E67 silent |
| E68 2022-02-19 | decay | -0.4 | 10.0 | E68 silent |
| E70 2022-02-24 | decay | -0.4 | 9.6 | E70 silent |
| E71 2022-03-05 | decay | -0.4 | 9.2 | E71 silent |
| E72 2022-03-19 | decay | -0.4 | 8.8 | E72 silent |
| E73 2022-03-26 | decay | -0.4 | 8.5 | E73 silent |
| E74 2022-04-01 | decay | -0.3 | 8.1 | E74 silent |
| E75 2022-04-09 | decay | -0.3 | 7.8 | E75 silent |
| E76 2022-04-16 | decay | -0.3 | 7.5 | E76 silent |
| E77 2022-04-23 | oppose | -6.0 | 1.5 | E77 Brian Armstrong opposes x2 [w=0.50] |
| E77 2022-04-23 | reinforce | +8.2 | 9.7 | E77 Jason support x1 [w=0.69] |
| E78 2022-04-30 | decay | -0.4 | 9.3 | E78 silent |
| E79 2022-05-07 | decay | -0.4 | 8.9 | E79 silent |
| E80 2022-05-13 | decay | -0.4 | 8.6 | E80 silent |
| E81 2022-05-23 | decay | -0.3 | 8.2 | E81 silent |
| E82 2022-05-24 | decay | -0.3 | 7.9 | E82 silent |
| E84 2022-06-24 | decay | -0.3 | 7.6 | E84 silent |
| E85 2022-06-30 | decay | -0.3 | 7.3 | E85 silent |
| E86 2022-07-08 | decay | -0.3 | 7.0 | E86 silent |
| E87 2022-07-14 | decay | -0.3 | 6.7 | E87 silent |
| E88 2022-07-22 | decay | -0.3 | 6.4 | E88 silent |
| E89 2022-07-29 | decay | -0.3 | 6.2 | E89 silent |
| E90 2022-08-05 | decay | -0.2 | 5.9 | E90 silent |