🤖 Meta's Project 92 takes Twitter's slot by paying creators and handing back data control
Brad's pre-launch read on Meta's leaked text-based social product (Project 92, shipped weeks later as Threads): Meta is courting Oprah and the Dalai Lama, will compensate creators, and Zuckerberg's Lex Fridman comments about Blue Sky suggest the pitch is putting data control and monetization back in the user's hands. If Meta leverages existing platform distribution that way it takes the position Twitter vacated - a cheap, high-leverage option on top of the core ad business that nobody is pricing.
other ideas on the same ticker, same direction: Meta becomes America's open-source AI champion 55 (META) · Personal AI agents put the App Store's 30% take and opaque subscription/retail economics on notice 49 (META) · The AI doomer campaign fails — no FDAI, open source survives 31 (META) · Independent frontier-model labs lose to hyperscaler capital 18 (META) · Meta's AI assistant takes ten points of search share from Google 6 (META)
⚖ Why this result
fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2023-06-16 → 2024-06-16 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG META (primary play). META rose 79.8% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = +79.8% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +24.8% → vs SPY = +79.8 − (+24.8) = +55.0% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
- Rule fired:
▶ RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+ ✓ (return 79.8, vs SPY 55.0)· HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all· WRONG — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a RIGHT earn 1.0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Brad Gerstner | opposed: Chamath, Sacks
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2023-06-16)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | META | stock | PRIMARY | Project 92 / Threads is a Meta product; the optionality accrues to META equity |
Mention log newest first
“But already, by my estimate, these guys get to 100 million, which looks like they may be able to get to tonight.”
“But I think there's a suggestion here that it may be more about putting the control back in the hands of the user from a data perspective and a monetization perspective. That would be a pretty gangster move”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -19.5 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E133 2023-06-16 | init | +35.0 | 35.0 | E133 born by Brad Gerstner (explicit_prediction x2) |
| E134 2023-06-24 | decay | -1.4 | 33.6 | E134 silent |
| E135 2023-07-01 | decay | -1.3 | 32.3 | E135 silent |
| E136 2023-07-09 | reinforce | +12.2 | 44.4 | E136 Brad Gerstner support x3 |
| E136 2023-07-09 | oppose | -12.0 | 32.4 | E136 Chamath opposes x2 |
| E136 2023-07-09 | oppose | -12.0 | 20.4 | E136 Sacks opposes x2 |
| E137 2023-07-14 | decay | -0.8 | 19.6 | E137 silent |
| E139 2023-07-27 | decay | -0.8 | 18.8 | E139 silent |
| E140 2023-08-04 | decay | -0.8 | 18.1 | E140 silent |
| E141 2023-08-11 | decay | -0.7 | 17.4 | E141 silent |
| E142 2023-08-18 | decay | -0.7 | 16.7 | E142 silent |
| E143 2023-08-25 | decay | -0.7 | 16.0 | E143 silent |
| E144 2023-09-01 | decay | -0.6 | 15.4 | E144 silent |
| E146 2023-09-22 | decay | -0.6 | 14.8 | E146 silent |
| E147 2023-09-29 | decay | -0.6 | 14.2 | E147 silent |
| E148 2023-10-07 | decay | -0.6 | 13.6 | E148 silent |
| E149 2023-10-13 | decay | -0.5 | 13.1 | E149 silent |
| E150 2023-10-20 | decay | -0.5 | 12.5 | E150 silent |
| E151 2023-10-27 | decay | -0.5 | 12.0 | E151 silent |
| E152 2023-11-03 | decay | -0.5 | 11.5 | E152 silent |
| E156 2023-12-08 | decay | -0.5 | 11.1 | E156 silent |
| E157 2023-12-16 | decay | -0.4 | 10.6 | E157 silent |
| E158 2023-12-23 | decay | -0.4 | 10.2 | E158 silent |
| E159 2023-12-29 | decay | -0.4 | 9.8 | E159 silent |
| E160 2024-01-06 | decay | -0.4 | 9.4 | E160 silent |
| E161 2024-01-13 | decay | -0.4 | 9.0 | E161 silent |
| E162 2024-01-19 | decay | -0.4 | 8.7 | E162 silent |
| E163 2024-01-26 | decay | -0.3 | 8.3 | E163 silent |
| E164 2024-02-02 | decay | -0.3 | 8.0 | E164 silent |
| E165 2024-02-09 | decay | -0.3 | 7.7 | E165 silent |
| E166 2024-02-16 | decay | -0.3 | 7.4 | E166 silent |
| E167 2024-02-23 | decay | -0.3 | 7.1 | E167 silent |
| E168 2024-03-01 | decay | -0.3 | 6.8 | E168 silent |
| E169 2024-03-08 | decay | -0.3 | 6.5 | E169 silent |
| E170 2024-03-15 | decay | -0.3 | 6.3 | E170 silent |
| E171 2024-03-22 | decay | -0.3 | 6.0 | E171 silent |
| E172 2024-03-29 | decay | -0.2 | 5.8 | E172 silent |
| E173 2024-04-05 | decay | -0.2 | 5.5 | E173 silent |
| E174 2024-04-12 | decay | -0.2 | 5.3 | E174 silent |
| E175 2024-04-19 | decay | -0.2 | 5.1 | E175 silent |
| E176 2024-04-26 | decay | -0.2 | 4.9 | E176 silent |
| E177 2024-05-03 | decay | -0.2 | 4.7 | E177 silent |
| E178 2024-05-10 | decay | -0.2 | 4.5 | E178 silent |
| E179 2024-05-17 | decay | -0.2 | 4.3 | E179 silent |
| E180 2024-05-24 | decay | -0.2 | 4.2 | E180 silent |
| E181 2024-05-31 | decay | -0.2 | 4.0 | E181 silent |
| E182 2024-06-07 | decay | -0.2 | 3.8 | E182 silent |
| E183 2024-06-14 | decay | -0.2 | 3.7 | E183 silent |