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⚡ US nuclear power buildout gets announced in 2025

Deregulation plus AI-driven power demand make US nuclear buildout an inevitability announced in 2025; smart people are quitting good jobs to start nuclear companies — the leading indicator.

0 CONVICTION
peaked 65.3 GREEN
EMBER
band · contested
▲ LONG URA
expression · bullish energy
HIT
outcome · R +64.8% · α +48.7%
2026-01-04
window closed
⚠ CONFLICTING IDEA ON THE SAME TICKER — the board is arguing with itself; net it before trading (ticker view →)
URA · Short nuclear: SMRs miss the economic window SHORT DORMANT 9.5

⚖ Why this verdict

fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set

  1. Window: 2025-01-04 → 2026-01-04 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
  2. The call: ▲ LONG URA (primary play). URA rose 64.8% over the window → direction-adjusted R = +64.8% (the call made money).
  3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +16.1%α = +64.8 − (+16.1) = +48.7% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
  4. Rule fired:
    ▶ HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5 ✓ (R 64.8, α 48.7)
    · PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0
    · MISS — everything else
  5. Credit: supporters of a HIT earn 1.0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Gavin Baker, Jason, Thomas Laffont | opposed: Chamath, Elon Musk, Friedberg

Conviction timeline

bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15

Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2025-01-04)

Plays

expressionsymbolkindrelevancerationale
▲ LONG URAetf PRIMARY his standing uranium/nuclear vehicle (he later noted the ETF's junk components — kept for continuity)
▲ LONG CEGstock adjacent largest US nuclear utility — direct buildout beneficiary

Mention log

Friedberg
Friedberg energy w=0.78 · n=18 · E209 (2025-01-04) · annual_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:32:58 SUPPORT · horizon 12mo
“My most anticipated trend is the announcement of buildout of nuclear power in the United States in 2025... nuclear is an inevitability... I know a lot of very smart people who have left very good jobs to start nuclear power companies in anticipation of this happening in 25. So I'm very bullish.”
TH
Thomas Laffont (regular guest ×1.0) energy: 2 resolved, unproven · E212 (2025-01-25) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:28:54 SUPPORT
“So, you know, we expect and we think just the trend generally towards nuclear energy is going to continue. It's been proven in China. It's been proven in Europe. I think it will show to be a key part of the AI kind of arms race”
Friedberg
Friedberg energy w=0.78 · n=18 · E212 (2025-01-25) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:33:14 SUPPORT
“I will tell you that there is a lot of capital, and we mentioned this last time, a lot of intellectual capital in the United States that's eager, hungry and ready to get moving on build out. The only thing that's challenged and the only thing that's holding it back is regulatory challenges, regulatory roadblocks.”
Jason
Jason energy w=1.00 · n=17 · E212 (2025-01-25) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:49:44 SUPPORT
“The entire country knows that we need to win the AI race. The numbers are the numbers. You put up a chart like that, Thomas, and there's only one way for us to win, and that's to build more nuclear power plants.”
Chamath
Chamath energy w=0.55 · n=22 · E234 (2025-07-04) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 19:31 OPPOSE
“I still worry that with nuclear, the issue won't be the federal regulations. I think that it's good that the president cleaned it up. The real problem is going to be the local and state regulators and how quickly they're willing to turn these on. And the reality is that these are 10-year projects. And so even if you say go from today, the earliest these things can be turned on, really, in 2032, 2033 That's far too late.”
Friedberg
Friedberg energy w=0.78 · n=18 · E234 (2025-07-04) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 16:23 SUPPORT
“but what I'm hopeful for is it creates a natural market force for nuclear and that we actually see a better proliferation in nuclear, which Secretary Wright has said, and President Trump signed these EOs a couple of weeks ago, to reduce the regulatory burden on nuclear and increase the ability for nuclear to proliferate much more quickly than has been the case historically.”
Gavin Baker
Gavin Baker (regular guest ×1.0) energy: 2 resolved, unproven · E236 (2025-07-19) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 55:55 SUPPORT
“I mean, electrical production is fundamental to AI. If we do not significantly increase kind of domestic energy production and electricity generation, you know, we're already at a disadvantage to China. And I do think we want to close that kind of electrical generation gap as quickly as we can. You know, natural gas is great. Nuclear is great. Solar is great. Batteries are great. We need it all.”
Friedberg
Friedberg energy w=0.78 · n=18 · E237 (2025-08-01) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 29:07 SUPPORT
“scaling energy production, I personally think we need to fix the regulatory roadblocks in nuclear. And Chris Wright's been very vocal on this.”
Jason
Jason energy w=1.00 · n=17 · E237 (2025-08-01) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:10:13 SUPPORT
“We have a trillion dollars now that we can put into nuclear power plants and these small modular reactors and that's what Lutnick said he wanted to spend it on.”
PH
Phil Deutch (guest ×0.5) no energy track record · E238 (2025-08-09) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 22:05 SUPPORT
“So just to give credit where credit's due, I think all the stuff we're seeing on the small modular reactors at some level, owes its renaissance to AI and the energy demands of AI.”
Friedberg
Friedberg energy w=0.78 · n=18 · E238 (2025-08-09) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 59:10 OPPOSE
“These are these very clean, meltdown proof nuclear energy production systems that are being deployed at scale in China now, and the US doesn't have any, and we have no path to getting these deployed.”
EL
Elon Musk (regular guest ×1.0) energy: 1 resolved, unproven · E249 (2025-10-31) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:27:56 OPPOSE
“Generally, people don't welcome a nuclear reactor in their backyard... If people want to have fun with reactors, that's fine, have fun with reactors. But it's not a serious endeavor compared to the Sun. It's a fun science project... it's just peanuts compared to the Sun.”

Who built this conviction

each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Friedberg
Friedberg w=0.78
5 scoring events · 45% of moves
+53.1 / -9.3 → net +43.8
TH
Thomas Laffont regular guest ×1.0
1 scoring event · 14% of moves
+19.3 → net +19.3
Jason
Jason w=1.00
2 scoring events · 13% of moves
+17.3 → net +17.3
Gavin Baker
Gavin Baker regular guest ×1.0
1 scoring event · 12% of moves
+15.9 → net +15.9
EL
Elon Musk regular guest ×1.0
1 scoring event · 9% of moves
+0.0 / -12.0 → net -12.0
Chamath
Chamath w=0.55
1 scoring event · 5% of moves
+0.0 / -6.5 → net -6.5
PH
Phil Deutch guest ×0.5
1 scoring event · 3% of moves
+4.6 → net +4.6

⏳ decay drained -64.2 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one

Score events

episodekindΔafternote
E209 2025-01-04 init +31.1 31.1 E209 born by Friedberg (annual_prediction x2) [w=0.78]
E210 2025-01-11 decay -1.2 29.9 E210 silent
E211 2025-01-18 decay -1.2 28.7 E211 silent
E212 2025-01-25 reinforce +19.3 47.9 E212 Thomas Laffont support x3 (new voice)
E212 2025-01-25 reinforce +7.3 55.2 E212 Friedberg support x3 [w=0.78]
E212 2025-01-25 reinforce +10.1 65.3 E212 Jason support x2 (new voice)
E213 2025-01-31 decay -2.6 62.7 E213 silent
E214 2025-02-07 decay -2.5 60.2 E214 silent
E215 2025-02-15 decay -2.4 57.8 E215 silent
E216 2025-02-21 decay -2.3 55.5 E216 silent
E217 2025-03-01 decay -2.2 53.2 E217 silent
E218 2025-03-08 decay -2.1 51.1 E218 silent
E219 2025-03-15 decay -2.0 49.1 E219 silent
E220 2025-03-22 decay -2.0 47.1 E220 silent
E221 2025-03-29 decay -1.9 45.2 E221 silent
E222 2025-04-05 decay -1.8 43.4 E222 silent
E223 2025-04-11 decay -1.7 41.7 E223 silent
E224 2025-04-19 decay -1.7 40.0 E224 silent
E225 2025-04-26 decay -1.6 38.4 E225 silent
E226 2025-05-02 decay -1.5 36.9 E226 silent
E227 2025-05-09 decay -1.5 35.4 E227 silent
E228 2025-05-17 decay -1.4 34.0 E228 silent
E229 2025-05-24 decay -1.4 32.6 E229 silent
E231 2025-06-13 decay -1.3 31.3 E231 silent
E232 2025-06-21 decay -1.3 30.1 E232 silent
E233 2025-06-28 decay -1.2 28.9 E233 silent
E234 2025-07-04 reinforce +8.3 37.2 E234 Friedberg support x2 [w=0.78]
E234 2025-07-04 oppose -6.5 30.6 E234 Chamath opposes x2 [w=0.55]
E235 2025-07-11 decay -1.2 29.4 E235 silent
E236 2025-07-19 reinforce +15.9 45.3 E236 Gavin Baker support x2 (new voice)
E237 2025-08-01 reinforce +6.4 51.7 E237 Friedberg support x2 [w=0.78]
E237 2025-08-01 reinforce +7.3 58.9 E237 Jason support x2
E238 2025-08-09 reinforce +4.6 63.5 E238 Phil Deutch support x2 (new voice) [w=0.50]
E238 2025-08-09 oppose -9.3 54.2 E238 Friedberg opposes x2 [w=0.78]
E239 2025-08-15 decay -2.2 52.0 E239 silent
E240 2025-08-22 decay -2.1 50.0 E240 silent
E241 2025-08-29 decay -2.0 48.0 E241 silent
E242 2025-09-07 decay -1.9 46.0 E242 silent
E243 2025-09-19 decay -1.8 44.2 E243 silent
E244 2025-09-27 decay -1.8 42.4 E244 silent
E245 2025-10-03 decay -1.7 40.7 E245 silent
E246 2025-10-10 decay -1.6 39.1 E246 silent
E247 2025-10-17 decay -1.6 37.5 E247 silent
E248 2025-10-24 decay -1.5 36.0 E248 silent
E249 2025-10-31 oppose -12.0 24.0 E249 Elon Musk opposes x2
E250 2025-11-07 decay -1.0 23.1 E250 silent
E251 2025-11-14 decay -0.9 22.2 E251 silent
E252 2025-11-22 decay -0.9 21.3 E252 silent
E253 2025-12-06 decay -0.9 20.4 E253 silent
E254 2025-12-13 decay -0.8 19.6 E254 silent
E255 2025-12-19 decay -0.8 18.8 E255 silent
E256 2025-12-31 decay -0.8 18.1 E256 silent