+0.0
net board stance
what this means
133.99
-5.2% · close 2026-09-08
+7% / +25% / -29%
1m / 3m / 12m
-52%
vs SPY since 2023-04-21
47%
of 52w range · -30.3% off high
—
hit rate as primary
Where we stand — 0 live ideas
No active idea holds this ticker. Anything below is history.
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from
score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
Track record on NOW
No closed window has used this ticker as its primary play, so there is no scored record here yet. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.
| idea | call | play | verdict | R | α | closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🤖 The software recession is over — net new ARR re-accelerates | ▲ LONG | adjacent | HIT | +45.0% | +11.1 | 2024-12-08 |
| 🤖 Bottoms-up SaaS hits a growth wall — only the scaled platforms escape | ▲ LONG | adjacent | HIT | +55.2% | +35.8 | 2023-06-30 |
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding NOW, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
Well, all the cloud service providers are doing extremely well. I mean, cloud is still the future of software, and the cloud service providers are still growing really strongly.
So I think what the market is voting with their dollars is that these large lumpy monolithic software companies that need big 50, 100 million dollar customers, they're not gonna find them soon
And I'm seeing that a bunch of SaaS companies are kind of hurting today now in the wake of this. They're down like 5%, not 20, but so I wonder if what the market is wondering is whether there's a more general slowdown that we're on the precipice of.
But I don't think that the adoption of software is going to slow down. It certainly seems to be reaccelerating.
Is that we've re-baselined these businesses. So now what would have looked like just a massive miss over the last two years now looks like a beat because we've just completely reset expectations. Is it that or is it that the economy is actually expanding and we can count on some reasonable growth rates?
With the market ripping, and you now got a really efficient company, you're like, hey, can we spend a little bit on SaaS to make the remaining employees even more productive? OK, maybe that's a reasonable discussion. And then people are playing ball in terms of negotiating prices.
But now we're seeing quarter over quarter growth. So growth is re-accelerating. Growth is higher than it was. So is it going to get to where it was? That probably will take some time, but it feels like the problems in the ecosystem work themselves out, and now we're back to growth again.
I do think that the whole B2B software industry definitely went through a recession. But fortunately, I think we bottomed out and are starting to see green shoots now. So things are returning to normal.
I think software revenues are going to rebound.
I think again, the software recession, I'm calling an end to the software recession.
So I think the marketplace will compete. And if you look at Slack itself, it's still growing the same percentage growth it did inside of Salesforce that it did as an independent company.
when it comes to software, if your product is the same as the other guy's product, maybe they deserve to win by bundling. And maybe it's okay for them to offer a discount and beat you on pricing.
we could build the best product in the world, but if Microsoft gives it away with this other product that is quasi-essential, they'll always beat us. And there's nothing we can do about it.
I think that this bundling behavior is a form of dumping, where in the short run, it looks like consumers are benefiting because they're getting a Zoom clone for free or a Slack clone for free. But then what happens is once they've hobbled those companies, they raise the price of the bundle.
And what they've shown is a huge slowdown. Basically, their net new ARR that they just added in the previous quarter dropped two-thirds compared to the previous quarter.
So basically they get you hooked on the bundle, they then use it to systematically kill or undermine a competitor and then they know you're stuck and then they raise the price. They basically have inflation of the price of the whole bundle. I think it's very anti-competitive. Actually, I think it's akin to dumping.
So what's interesting to me is you cannot effectively compete, as it turns out, against Microsoft at any point product. And Slack I think is the best example where, you know, Microsoft Teams was fundamentally cannibalizing this business, which is what drove Slack into the arms of Salesforce.
The easiest SaaS company to start and the one that folks, really talented investors like Sacks will fund overwhelmingly over others, are what's called bottoms up SaaS ... the unfortunate part of that growth curve is that it's pretty terminal within seven to ten years. And after that, you're forced to go to the mid market, and then eventually you're forced to go enterprise. ... Palo Alto Networks is probably the next closest one now.