📈 Amazon's ad business passes AWS within three years
Amazon advertising printed $24B growing 77% year over year in Q1 2021; Chamath's dated call is that at that rate it is bigger than AWS within three years, i.e. a second AWS-scale profit engine emerges inside AMZN.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 33.1 EMBER
DORMANT
band
▲ LONG AMZN
expression · bullish equities
PARTIAL
outcome · R +5.7% · α -19.3%
2024-05-01
window closed
also touching these tickers, same direction: Amazon as a long-term compounding hold 23 (AMZN) · Own AWS, Azure and GCP and nothing else — the clouds capture the AI application dollars 21 (AMZN) · Independent frontier-model labs lose to hyperscaler capital 14 (AMZN)
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2021-05-01 → 2024-05-01 — first mention + 36-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG AMZN (primary play). AMZN rose 5.7% over the window → direction-adjusted R = +5.7% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +25.1% → α = +5.7 − (+25.1) = -19.3% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5▶ PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0· MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a PARTIAL earn 0.5 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath, Friedberg
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2021-05-01)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | AMZN | stock | PRIMARY | the claim is entirely about an Amazon business-line mix shift; no other instrument expresses it |
Mention log
Chamath
equities w=0.84 · n=160
· E113 (2023-01-27) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 4:02
SUPPORT
“The second thing is that if you had done this chart many years ago, Amazon would not have really even been there. And over the last five years, they represent almost 12% of the entire market. And it means that if you forecast it forward, they could be at 15 to 20% in a few years as well.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -40.9 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E31 2021-05-01 | init | +23.4 | 23.4 | E31 born by Chamath (explicit_prediction x1) [w=0.84] |
| E32 2021-05-13 | decay | -0.5 | 23.0 | E32 silent |
| E33 2021-05-22 | decay | -0.5 | 22.5 | E33 silent |
| E34 2021-05-31 | decay | -0.5 | 22.1 | E34 silent |
| E35 2021-06-13 | decay | -0.4 | 21.6 | E35 silent |
| E36 2021-06-18 | decay | -0.4 | 21.2 | E36 silent |
| E37 2021-06-25 | decay | -0.4 | 20.8 | E37 silent |
| E38 2021-07-03 | decay | -0.4 | 20.4 | E38 silent |
| E39 2021-07-09 | decay | -0.4 | 20.0 | E39 silent |
| E40 2021-07-16 | decay | -0.4 | 19.6 | E40 silent |
| E41 2021-07-23 | decay | -0.4 | 19.2 | E41 silent |
| E42 2021-07-30 | decay | -0.4 | 18.8 | E42 silent |
| E43 2021-08-06 | decay | -0.4 | 18.4 | E43 silent |
| E44 2021-08-28 | decay | -0.4 | 18.0 | E44 silent |
| E45 2021-09-04 | decay | -0.4 | 17.7 | E45 silent |
| E46 2021-09-14 | decay | -0.4 | 17.3 | E46 silent |
| E47 2021-09-18 | decay | -0.3 | 17.0 | E47 silent |
| E49 2021-10-02 | decay | -0.3 | 16.6 | E49 silent |
| E50 2021-10-09 | decay | -0.3 | 16.3 | E50 silent |
| E51 2021-10-16 | decay | -0.3 | 16.0 | E51 silent |
| E52 2021-10-23 | decay | -0.3 | 15.7 | E52 silent |
| E53 2021-10-30 | decay | -0.3 | 15.3 | E53 silent |
| E54 2021-11-06 | decay | -0.3 | 15.0 | E54 silent |
| E55 2021-11-13 | decay | -0.3 | 14.7 | E55 silent |
| E56 2021-11-20 | decay | -0.3 | 14.4 | E56 silent |
| E57 2021-12-04 | decay | -0.3 | 14.2 | E57 silent |
| E58 2021-12-11 | decay | -0.3 | 13.9 | E58 silent |
| E59 2021-12-17 | decay | -0.3 | 13.6 | E59 silent |
| E60 2021-12-23 | decay | -0.3 | 13.3 | E60 silent |
| E61 2021-12-29 | decay | -0.3 | 13.1 | E61 silent |
| E62 2022-01-08 | decay | -0.3 | 12.8 | E62 silent |
| E63 2022-01-15 | decay | -0.3 | 12.5 | E63 silent |
| E64 2022-01-22 | decay | -0.3 | 12.3 | E64 silent |
| E65 2022-01-29 | decay | -0.2 | 12.0 | E65 silent |
| E66 2022-02-05 | decay | -0.2 | 11.8 | E66 silent |
| E67 2022-02-12 | decay | -0.2 | 11.6 | E67 silent |
| E68 2022-02-19 | decay | -0.2 | 11.3 | E68 silent |
| E70 2022-02-24 | decay | -0.2 | 11.1 | E70 silent |
| E71 2022-03-05 | decay | -0.2 | 10.9 | E71 silent |
| E72 2022-03-19 | decay | -0.2 | 10.7 | E72 silent |
| E73 2022-03-26 | decay | -0.2 | 10.5 | E73 silent |
| E74 2022-04-01 | decay | -0.2 | 10.2 | E74 silent |
| E75 2022-04-09 | decay | -0.2 | 10.0 | E75 silent |
| E76 2022-04-16 | decay | -0.2 | 9.8 | E76 silent |
| E77 2022-04-23 | decay | -0.2 | 9.6 | E77 silent |
| E78 2022-04-30 | decay | -0.2 | 9.4 | E78 silent |
| E79 2022-05-07 | decay | -0.2 | 9.3 | E79 silent |
| E80 2022-05-13 | decay | -0.2 | 9.1 | E80 silent |
| E81 2022-05-23 | decay | -0.2 | 8.9 | E81 silent |
| E82 2022-05-24 | decay | -0.2 | 8.7 | E82 silent |
| E84 2022-06-24 | decay | -0.2 | 8.5 | E84 silent |
| E85 2022-06-30 | decay | -0.2 | 8.4 | E85 silent |
| E86 2022-07-08 | decay | -0.2 | 8.2 | E86 silent |
| E87 2022-07-14 | decay | -0.2 | 8.0 | E87 silent |
| E88 2022-07-22 | decay | -0.2 | 7.9 | E88 silent |
| E89 2022-07-29 | decay | -0.2 | 7.7 | E89 silent |
| E90 2022-08-05 | decay | -0.2 | 7.6 | E90 silent |
| E91 2022-08-13 | decay | -0.2 | 7.4 | E91 silent |
| E92 2022-08-20 | decay | -0.1 | 7.3 | E92 silent |
| E93 2022-08-26 | decay | -0.1 | 7.1 | E93 silent |
| E94 2022-09-01 | decay | -0.1 | 7.0 | E94 silent |
| E95 2022-09-10 | decay | -0.1 | 6.8 | E95 silent |
| E96 2022-09-17 | decay | -0.1 | 6.7 | E96 silent |
| E97 2022-09-23 | decay | -0.1 | 6.6 | E97 silent |
| E98 2022-10-01 | decay | -0.1 | 6.4 | E98 silent |
| E99 2022-10-07 | decay | -0.1 | 6.3 | E99 silent |
| E100 2022-10-14 | decay | -0.1 | 6.2 | E100 silent |
| E101 2022-10-22 | decay | -0.1 | 6.1 | E101 silent |
| E102 2022-10-29 | decay | -0.1 | 5.9 | E102 silent |
| E103 2022-11-05 | decay | -0.1 | 5.8 | E103 silent |
| E105 2022-11-19 | decay | -0.1 | 5.7 | E105 silent |
| E106 2022-12-03 | decay | -0.1 | 5.6 | E106 silent |
| E107 2022-12-10 | decay | -0.1 | 5.5 | E107 silent |
| E108 2022-12-16 | decay | -0.1 | 5.4 | E108 silent |
| E109 2022-12-24 | decay | -0.1 | 5.3 | E109 silent |
| E110 2023-01-06 | decay | -0.1 | 5.2 | E110 silent |
| E111 2023-01-13 | decay | -0.1 | 5.1 | E111 silent |
| E112 2023-01-20 | decay | -0.1 | 4.9 | E112 silent |
| E113 2023-01-27 | reinforce | +11.9 | 16.9 | E113 Chamath support x2 [w=0.84] |
| E113 2023-01-27 | reinforce | +16.2 | 33.1 | E113 Friedberg support x2 (new voice) [w=0.87] |
| E114 2023-02-04 | decay | -0.7 | 32.4 | E114 silent |
| E115 2023-02-11 | decay | -0.6 | 31.8 | E115 silent |
| E116 2023-02-17 | decay | -0.6 | 31.2 | E116 silent |
| E118 2023-03-03 | decay | -0.6 | 30.5 | E118 silent |
| E119 2023-03-11 | decay | -0.6 | 29.9 | E119 silent |
| E120 2023-03-17 | decay | -0.6 | 29.3 | E120 silent |
| E121 2023-03-24 | decay | -0.6 | 28.7 | E121 silent |
| E122 2023-03-31 | decay | -0.6 | 28.2 | E122 silent |
| E123 2023-04-07 | decay | -0.6 | 27.6 | E123 silent |
| E124 2023-04-14 | decay | -0.6 | 27.0 | E124 silent |
| E125 2023-04-21 | decay | -0.5 | 26.5 | E125 silent |
| E126 2023-04-28 | decay | -0.5 | 26.0 | E126 silent |
| E128 2023-05-12 | decay | -0.5 | 25.5 | E128 silent |
| E129 2023-05-19 | decay | -0.5 | 24.9 | E129 silent |
| E130 2023-05-26 | decay | -0.5 | 24.4 | E130 silent |
| E131 2023-06-02 | decay | -0.5 | 24.0 | E131 silent |
| E132 2023-06-10 | decay | -0.5 | 23.5 | E132 silent |
| E133 2023-06-16 | decay | -0.5 | 23.0 | E133 silent |
| E134 2023-06-24 | decay | -0.5 | 22.5 | E134 silent |
| E135 2023-07-01 | decay | -0.5 | 22.1 | E135 silent |
| E136 2023-07-09 | decay | -0.4 | 21.7 | E136 silent |
| E137 2023-07-14 | decay | -0.4 | 21.2 | E137 silent |
| E139 2023-07-27 | decay | -0.4 | 20.8 | E139 silent |
| E140 2023-08-04 | decay | -0.4 | 20.4 | E140 silent |
| E141 2023-08-11 | decay | -0.4 | 20.0 | E141 silent |
| E142 2023-08-18 | decay | -0.4 | 19.6 | E142 silent |
| E143 2023-08-25 | decay | -0.4 | 19.2 | E143 silent |
| E144 2023-09-01 | decay | -0.4 | 18.8 | E144 silent |
| E146 2023-09-22 | decay | -0.4 | 18.4 | E146 silent |
| E147 2023-09-29 | decay | -0.4 | 18.1 | E147 silent |
| E148 2023-10-07 | decay | -0.4 | 17.7 | E148 silent |
| E149 2023-10-13 | decay | -0.4 | 17.3 | E149 silent |
| E150 2023-10-20 | decay | -0.3 | 17.0 | E150 silent |
| E151 2023-10-27 | decay | -0.3 | 16.7 | E151 silent |
| E152 2023-11-03 | decay | -0.3 | 16.3 | E152 silent |
| E156 2023-12-08 | decay | -0.3 | 16.0 | E156 silent |
| E157 2023-12-16 | decay | -0.3 | 15.7 | E157 silent |
| E158 2023-12-23 | decay | -0.3 | 15.4 | E158 silent |
| E159 2023-12-29 | decay | -0.3 | 15.1 | E159 silent |
| E160 2024-01-06 | decay | -0.3 | 14.8 | E160 silent |
| E161 2024-01-13 | decay | -0.3 | 14.5 | E161 silent |
| E162 2024-01-19 | decay | -0.3 | 14.2 | E162 silent |
| E163 2024-01-26 | decay | -0.3 | 13.9 | E163 silent |
| E164 2024-02-02 | decay | -0.3 | 13.6 | E164 silent |
| E165 2024-02-09 | decay | -0.3 | 13.3 | E165 silent |
| E166 2024-02-16 | decay | -0.3 | 13.1 | E166 silent |
| E167 2024-02-23 | decay | -0.3 | 12.8 | E167 silent |
| E168 2024-03-01 | decay | -0.3 | 12.6 | E168 silent |
| E169 2024-03-08 | decay | -0.3 | 12.3 | E169 silent |
| E170 2024-03-15 | decay | -0.2 | 12.1 | E170 silent |
| E171 2024-03-22 | decay | -0.2 | 11.8 | E171 silent |
| E172 2024-03-29 | decay | -0.2 | 11.6 | E172 silent |
| E173 2024-04-05 | decay | -0.2 | 11.3 | E173 silent |
| E174 2024-04-12 | decay | -0.2 | 11.1 | E174 silent |
| E175 2024-04-19 | decay | -0.2 | 10.9 | E175 silent |
| E176 2024-04-26 | decay | -0.2 | 10.7 | E176 silent |