+0.0
net board stance
what this means
48.76
+2.0% · close 2026-09-08
-20% / -13% / -24%
1m / 3m / 12m
+126%
vs SPY since 2024-02-02
6%
of 52w range · -62.7% off high
1/1
hit rate as primary · α +77
Where we stand — 0 live ideas
No active idea holds this ticker. Anything below is history.
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from
score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
Track record on KTOS
As a PRIMARY play the besties are 1 hit / 0 partial / 0 miss over 1 closed window — credit 1.0, average α +76.7. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.
| idea | call | play | verdict | R | α | closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏛️ Broken cost-plus procurement forces a shift to new-entrant defense tech | ▲ LONG | adjacent | HIT | +93.1% | +57.0 | 2024-10-13 |
| 🏛️ Counter-drone defense becomes the new procurement line | ▲ LONG | primary | HIT | +82.5% | +76.7 | 2025-04-12 |
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding KTOS, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
JO
Joe Lonsdale
support ×2
▲ on
🏛️ Counter-drone defense becomes the new procurement line
E218 · 2025-03-08
▶ 34:07
because the way it's worked for 20 years, like EPROS, you could just raise $250 million this week. It's a great company.
JO
Joe Lonsdale
support ×3
▲ on
🏛️ Counter-drone defense becomes the new procurement line
E206 · 2024-12-07
▶ 45:50
But on the margin, I'd much rather have ten thousand more smart drones above and below the water than like an incremental carrier
We didn't have a set price. The government didn't come and say, you will build it for X and I'm only doing it one time. The free market was able to solve this problem, and it turned out the more capable solution was 40 percent cheaper than the one that they thought was going to work.
targeted EMPs and targeted systems for eliminating all of these autonomous systems becomes a new defense technology that I know several startups in Silicon Valley that have been funded with a lot of capital by folks that we all know very well that are kind of pursuing this
The one defense investment I've made is actually in this idea of how do you defend against drones. It's a startup where I led the seed round called All-In Control Systems. They have a product called Bullfrog, which is a gun turret that uses a standard M240 machine gun
the investors in Silicon Valley that are making these investments are likely going to outperform those who are not
eight years ago, I came to this conclusion and I invested in this company called SailDrone, which is autonomous drones in the seas. Our customers include the US Navy
the defense industry is consolidated down to these five prime defense contractors who are basically in oligopoly. And we have this cost plus procurement system where they just raise their prices every year and the government pays it... the only way that's going to change is if the defense industry gets disrupted by a bunch of startups doing innovative things
on the defense side, there's a large portion of that budget that's migrating away from traditional tactical warfare to things that are unmanned vehicles and cyber and whatnot, that could save two or $300 billion there
There's no competition and they're charging cost plus. They're not innovating anymore. And they need competition, right? Just like SpaceX was massive competition for all of the governmental agencies around doing space travel.
we led the Series A in a company called SailDrone about seven years ago. ... it is incredibly hard for startups, no matter how innovative we've been to break through this logjam.
there's no question that we need to shake up the military industrial complex. We need to get a lot more startups in there. There's a lot of VCs now who are funding defense startups. ... this is going to be a huge area of innovation. And I think that because of the Ukraine war, the Pentagon must now realize the urgency of being able to mass produce effective drones, as well as create effective drone air defense.
you can really do incredible damage to very expensive airplanes with hypersonic missiles that go incredibly fast or like Mach 5 or something insane, and they're cheap. ... So $100 million or $20 million fighter jet can just be annihilated by a couple of $100,000 in hypersonic missiles.
the asymmetry of the warfare that the hoodies can launch a drone or a cheap missile that costs thousands of dollars and it costs us millions of dollars to shoot it down. ... That is just not sustainable for the US.
In Silicon Valley, we have now the funding of military startups, and there's a whole new class of warfare, supersonics, drones, quadcopters
But the thing that I think we agree with is that the US better bring more innovation into the military industrial complex and figure out, like, procurement, because our whole cost plus system right now is so broken. There was an article recently in The New York Times where it said that the cost of the United States of producing an artillery shell is $6,000. For Russia, it's $600.