🪙 Creators go direct on crypto rails
The biggest creators will build scale on a platform and then own their own distribution and monetization; the mechanism gets solved by the crypto community because reputation and value can be put on chain and tied to payments. Sacks counters that it does not exist yet and Big Tech holds all the discovery power.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 35.0 EMBER
DORMANT
band · contested
▲ LONG cg:ethereum
expression · bullish crypto
MISS
outcome · R -28.5% · α -28.1%
2022-05-31
window closed
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2021-05-31 → 2022-05-31 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG cg:ethereum (primary play). cg:ethereum fell 28.5% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -28.5% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned -0.3% → α = -28.5 − (-0.3) = -28.1% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0▶ MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath, Friedberg | opposed: Sacks
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2021-05-31)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | cg:ethereum | crypto | PRIMARY | the settlement layer for on-chain reputation, social tokens and creator payments |
| ▲ LONG | COIN | stock | adjacent | on/off ramp and the company whose going-direct playbook Chamath ties to this thesis |
Mention log
Chamath
crypto w=1.00 · n=20
· E34 (2021-05-31) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 1:02:51
SUPPORT
“I think this solution will get figured out through the crypto community. And the reason is because that is, by definition, to your point, Jason, fundamentally distributed and tied to a payment and a store of value.”
Friedberg
crypto w=1.08 · n=12
· E60 (2021-12-23) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 31:51
SUPPORT
“But what I think is really wonderful about it is the opportunity it creates for creators to monetize their talent in a way that doesn't require them going through middlemen to get distribution and middlemen who take huge slugs or huge chunks of the margin out of what they create.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -33.7 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E34 2021-05-31 | init | +35.0 | 35.0 | E34 born by Chamath (explicit_prediction x2) |
| E34 2021-05-31 | oppose | -13.3 | 21.7 | E34 Sacks opposes x2 [w=1.11] |
| E35 2021-06-13 | decay | -0.9 | 20.8 | E35 silent |
| E36 2021-06-18 | decay | -0.8 | 20.0 | E36 silent |
| E37 2021-06-25 | decay | -0.8 | 19.2 | E37 silent |
| E38 2021-07-03 | decay | -0.8 | 18.4 | E38 silent |
| E39 2021-07-09 | decay | -0.7 | 17.7 | E39 silent |
| E40 2021-07-16 | decay | -0.7 | 17.0 | E40 silent |
| E41 2021-07-23 | decay | -0.7 | 16.3 | E41 silent |
| E42 2021-07-30 | decay | -0.7 | 15.6 | E42 silent |
| E43 2021-08-06 | decay | -0.6 | 15.0 | E43 silent |
| E44 2021-08-28 | decay | -0.6 | 14.4 | E44 silent |
| E45 2021-09-04 | decay | -0.6 | 13.8 | E45 silent |
| E46 2021-09-14 | decay | -0.6 | 13.3 | E46 silent |
| E47 2021-09-18 | decay | -0.5 | 12.7 | E47 silent |
| E49 2021-10-02 | decay | -0.5 | 12.2 | E49 silent |
| E50 2021-10-09 | decay | -0.5 | 11.7 | E50 silent |
| E51 2021-10-16 | decay | -0.5 | 11.3 | E51 silent |
| E52 2021-10-23 | decay | -0.5 | 10.8 | E52 silent |
| E53 2021-10-30 | decay | -0.4 | 10.4 | E53 silent |
| E54 2021-11-06 | decay | -0.4 | 10.0 | E54 silent |
| E55 2021-11-13 | decay | -0.4 | 9.6 | E55 silent |
| E56 2021-11-20 | decay | -0.4 | 9.2 | E56 silent |
| E57 2021-12-04 | decay | -0.4 | 8.8 | E57 silent |
| E58 2021-12-11 | decay | -0.4 | 8.5 | E58 silent |
| E59 2021-12-17 | decay | -0.3 | 8.1 | E59 silent |
| E60 2021-12-23 | reinforce | +26.9 | 35.0 | E60 Friedberg support x3 (new voice) [w=1.08] |
| E61 2021-12-29 | decay | -1.4 | 33.6 | E61 silent |
| E62 2022-01-08 | decay | -1.3 | 32.3 | E62 silent |
| E63 2022-01-15 | decay | -1.3 | 31.0 | E63 silent |
| E64 2022-01-22 | decay | -1.2 | 29.7 | E64 silent |
| E65 2022-01-29 | decay | -1.2 | 28.5 | E65 silent |
| E66 2022-02-05 | decay | -1.1 | 27.4 | E66 silent |
| E67 2022-02-12 | decay | -1.1 | 26.3 | E67 silent |
| E68 2022-02-19 | decay | -1.1 | 25.3 | E68 silent |
| E70 2022-02-24 | decay | -1.0 | 24.2 | E70 silent |
| E71 2022-03-05 | decay | -1.0 | 23.3 | E71 silent |
| E72 2022-03-19 | decay | -0.9 | 22.3 | E72 silent |
| E73 2022-03-26 | decay | -0.9 | 21.4 | E73 silent |
| E74 2022-04-01 | decay | -0.9 | 20.6 | E74 silent |
| E75 2022-04-09 | decay | -0.8 | 19.8 | E75 silent |
| E76 2022-04-16 | decay | -0.8 | 19.0 | E76 silent |
| E77 2022-04-23 | decay | -0.8 | 18.2 | E77 silent |
| E78 2022-04-30 | decay | -0.7 | 17.5 | E78 silent |
| E79 2022-05-07 | decay | -0.7 | 16.8 | E79 silent |
| E80 2022-05-13 | decay | -0.7 | 16.1 | E80 silent |
| E81 2022-05-23 | decay | -0.6 | 15.5 | E81 silent |
| E82 2022-05-24 | decay | -0.6 | 14.9 | E82 silent |