Peloton Interactive, Inc.

Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 📈 Private equity takes out the busted post-IPO cohort E125 · 2023-04-21 ▶ 1:05:19

Private equity has refined a very powerful toolkit of putting two or three orders of magnitude of the money we put into companies to work on the premise that the glass is actually half empty and what can go wrong and how do we mitigate that risk.

Friedberg support ×2 ▲ on 📈 Private equity takes out the busted post-IPO cohort E108 · 2022-12-16 ▶ 1:13:35

The alternative is that the majority of acquisitions made by private equity firms are not actually pure acquisitions. They're bolt on acquisitions, meaning that these are companies that are added to existing platforms that they own.

Sacks support ×2 ▲ on 📈 Private equity takes out the busted post-IPO cohort E108 · 2022-12-16 ▶ 1:12:41

But look, if you are a founder, if you don't start acting in a more capital efficient way and preserve your cash, your company is ultimately going to be owned by a private equity firm and they are going to make all the money.

Chamath support ×3 ▲ on 📈 Private equity takes out the busted post-IPO cohort E108 · 2022-12-16 ▶ 51:38

And so I think Coupa is like the canary in the coal mine. It is the beginning of what I suspect is a tidal wave of PE sponsored deals in tech companies, largely SaaS but may go into other realms.

Sacks brush_off ×1 ▲ on 📈 Private equity takes out the busted post-IPO cohort E103 · 2022-11-05 ▶ 24:26

Well, I don't, that's like a very specific question of like how many of them are going to get acquired by PE firms versus going public or going private after being public. That's like a very specific question.

Chamath support ×3 ▲ on 📈 Private equity takes out the busted post-IPO cohort E103 · 2022-11-05 ▶ 23:33

So I think about two-thirds of these companies really have no line of sight to profitability in the next two to three years. And again, if you layer in this cost of capital argument, all of those companies, David, will have to raise money at very egregious terms in order to keep themselves going as a public business, in which case their alternative is to go private in a PE transaction.

Friedberg support ×3 ▲ on 📈 Private equity takes out the busted post-IPO cohort E103 · 2022-11-05 ▶ 19:02

And there's a lot of these distressed mid cap and small cap software companies out there that private equity firms now realize, wow, you don't actually need 50% of the workforce in order to keep the product running and to drive to profitability. And you could see a bit of a flurry of buyout activity as more folks come in and maybe try and mimic the Elon playbook.

Friedberg support ×2 ▼ on 📈 Pandemic pull-forward reverses — COVID winners take an estimate double-whammy E89 · 2022-07-29 ▶ 28:21

if you're working in the office, you're going to do more e-commerce. And if you're working at home, you're probably going to do less e-commerce. So there's probably some net-net balance. We saw both of them rise together during COVID, but now there's more of an equilibrium being reached.

Sacks support ×2 ▼ on 📈 Pandemic pull-forward reverses — COVID winners take an estimate double-whammy E89 · 2022-07-29 ▶ 21:08

I mean, everybody made that mistake, right? So, you know, it's just you're right, Chamath. Just own it. Everyone was thinking the same thing. We're talking about how COVID was this acceleration of this virus, and it was going to accelerate all these trends.

Chamath support ×3 ▼ on 📈 Pandemic pull-forward reverses — COVID winners take an estimate double-whammy E89 · 2022-07-29 ▶ 19:50

I mean, mean reversion is a bitch. If you look at Shopify stock, if you look at Peloton stock, if you look at Affirm stock, if you look at Arc, you know, a lot of these things were trending in a great direction. They had this short-term crazy behavior in the middle of all of this free money, and now they've mean reverted.

Jason support ×2 ▲ on 📈 Private equity takes out the busted post-IPO cohort E88 · 2022-07-22 ▶ 1:36:30

I think the big thing that's going to happen right now, I'm seeing it all over the place is M&A I think is going to start ticking up just today Amazon acquired One Medical for $3.9 billion

Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 📈 Private equity takes out the busted post-IPO cohort E85 · 2022-06-30 ▶ 41:24

At the end of the day, the private equity firms are not trying to make, you know, this $10 billion go to 25 They're trying to make the 2 billion of equity they put in go to three. And there's a lot of ways that two can go to three before 10 goes to 25

Sacks support ×3 ▲ on 📈 Private equity takes out the busted post-IPO cohort E85 · 2022-06-30 ▶ 52:36

you have to ask the question, why are these highly sophisticated private equity firms buying it for $10 billion? I think they're going to make a lot of money. ... They are going to slash the hell out of the cost structure.

Jason support ×3 ▲ on 📈 Private equity takes out the busted post-IPO cohort E85 · 2022-06-30 ▶ 1:00:40

There's going to be a bunch of companies in this position, so look for this as a trend. Peloton, 964 million last quarter in revenue, lost 757 million in the quarter. ... That company is going to get taken out.

And then add to that that consumers are now starting to come back to conferences like this, go back to the restaurants and the clubs and doing the travel. And during the pandemic, everybody just bought stuff. You got to get your dopamine from somewhere and everybody was just buying goods. So that is like a triple whammy for these companies.

Sacks support ×2 ▼ on 📈 Pandemic pull-forward reverses — COVID winners take an estimate double-whammy E80 · 2022-05-13 ▶ 14:52

So the stocks that got hammered were generally the COVID stocks. It was the Pelotons, the Netflix, Zoom. ... So basically, the COVID stocks have been hammered, but the B2B stocks actually had really good results.

Sacks support ×2 ▼ on 📈 Pandemic pull-forward reverses — COVID winners take an estimate double-whammy E70 · 2022-02-24 ▶ 1:00:37

people are realizing now that the burst of activity, especially like in e-commerce type companies that happened during the pandemic, that was not ongoing sustainable growth. It was one time growth ... it was pull forward growth, meaning that growth in the future will be lower because you pulled forward all of that revenue ... So what happened is not only have multiples gone down, but these companies were being comped based on growth rates that were unsustainable. And so now they're all revising their forecasts down. So it's a double whammy.