Arm Holdings plc

Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 🤖 Nvidia's monopoly margins get competed away by custom and open silicon E187 · 2024-07-12 ▶ 26:20

And what you're seeing now is that Amazon, Google, Microsoft, AMD, Intel, a plethora of startups, Grok, everybody trying to make now different hardware solutions.

Sacks support ×2 ▼ on 🤖 Nvidia's monopoly margins get competed away by custom and open silicon E187 · 2024-07-12 ▶ 22:17

I do think that over time, the price of these chips just has to come down. It just doesn't make sense that they'd be so expensive.

Sacks oppose ×2 ▼ on 🤖 Nvidia's monopoly margins get competed away by custom and open silicon E180 · 2024-05-24 ▶ 33:23

So it's a much more complicated product to copy. And then on top of that, they're already in the R&D cycle for the next chip, right? Whatever is going to be the H200 or whatever it is. And so as people try to catch up with H100, they're going to be on to H200. So I think you can make the case that Nvidia has a much better moat than Cisco.

Chamath support ×3 ▼ on 🤖 Nvidia's monopoly margins get competed away by custom and open silicon E180 · 2024-05-24 ▶ 30:20

But at the same time, what you find now is like every other day when you wake up and read the trades in Techland, you find that there's a company that's gotten seeded with five to 50 million bucks to create a new chip, right? You're also starting to see folks that are working a little bit above the stack and build better compilers, right? Things that will allow you to actually build once, run in many different compute environments. So all of this stuff is starting to happen. At some point, the spread trait will be that Nvidia loses share, even though revenues keep compounding, to these upstarts.

Chamath support ×3 ▼ on 🤖 Nvidia's monopoly margins get competed away by custom and open silicon E174 · 2024-04-12 ▶ 2:48

there's some very important nuances around power and around supply chain decisions and technology decisions that, frankly, some people would think are unsustainable. And the more I understand them, I would be in that camp as well

Jason support ×2 ▼ on 🤖 Nvidia's monopoly margins get competed away by custom and open silicon E171 · 2024-03-22 ▶ 58:56

obviously chips are super crowded, lots of incumbents, lots of people going after it. And the foundation models are very crowded as well.

Friedberg support ×2 ▼ on 🤖 Nvidia's monopoly margins get competed away by custom and open silicon E171 · 2024-03-22 ▶ 57:58

most of the value will accrue is not necessarily a chip company, but in other businesses and traditional industries that can transform themselves using AIs.

Sacks oppose ×2 ▼ on 🤖 Nvidia's monopoly margins get competed away by custom and open silicon E167 · 2024-02-23 ▶ 20:38

Right now, their market share is something like 91 percent. That's clearly going to come down, but their moat appears to be substantial. The Wall Street analysts I've been listening to think that in five years, they're still going to have 60-something percent market share.

Friedberg support ×2 ▼ on 🤖 Nvidia's monopoly margins get competed away by custom and open silicon E167 · 2024-02-23 ▶ 8:23

So I think Chamath's point is right ... So in networking, a lot of the high-end, high-quality networking companies got beaten up when lower cost solutions came to market later.

Chamath support ×3 ▼ on 🤖 Nvidia's monopoly margins get competed away by custom and open silicon E167 · 2024-02-23 ▶ 6:29

in capitalism, when you over-earn for enough of a time, what happens is competitors decide to try to compete away your earnings ... In the case of Nvidia, what you're now starting to see is them over-earn in a very massive way. So the real question is who will step up to try to compete away those profits?

Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 📈 Arm's post-earnings rip is a float squeeze, not a repricing E166 · 2024-02-16 ▶ 5:51

there was almost an entire turn of the float that was short. So I don't know how much of this reaction was just an enormous short squeeze of people that were largely long other chip companies.

Sacks oppose ×1 ▼ on 📈 SoftBank is a forced seller — the Arm IPO is balance-sheet deleveraging E166 · 2024-02-16 ▶ 8:36

he's a gambler and he is playing a power loss. So he only needs one really big return to basically make up for all the mistakes. And it seems like he's hit that once again.

Friedberg oppose ×2 ▼ on 📈 SoftBank is a forced seller — the Arm IPO is balance-sheet deleveraging E166 · 2024-02-16 ▶ 5:31

we may be seeing Masa with his whole AI vision story that he's been telling for seven years, we may see Masa clawing his way out of the hole

Chamath support ×3 ▼ on 🤖 Nvidia's monopoly margins get competed away by custom and open silicon E156 · 2023-12-08 ▶ 1:08:38

You can't have an economy get built in AI when you have year-long waiting lists for H100s and A100s from NVIDIA. That's not possible. So that entire layer as well will get commoditized.

Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 📈 SoftBank is a forced seller — the Arm IPO is balance-sheet deleveraging E143 · 2023-08-25 ▶ 36:52

SoftBank itself is a telco operator that has ginormous piles of debt that they've used to finance the building of their business... So this is just part and parcel of them D-levering the balance sheet.

Sacks support ×2 ▼ on 🤖 Nvidia's monopoly margins get competed away by custom and open silicon E143 · 2023-08-25 ▶ 17:25

there is a tremendous GPU shortage right now. And that's also what's leading to these almost software like profit margins by Nvidia... And so I think even more than the demand, the profit margins might not be sustainable.

Chamath support ×3 ▼ on 🤖 Nvidia's monopoly margins get competed away by custom and open silicon E143 · 2023-08-25 ▶ 6:48

when the market observes that there's a company just printing enormous revenues and profits, they wanna compete with them naturally to get their share of those revenues and profits. And that typically happens in all markets, and the result of that are just decaying margins... I think that that probably decays the Nvidia margin and upside over time.