📈 Boosters + oral antivirals become the standard COVID stack
Delta's breakthrough infections mean vaccine efficacy decays, so third shots plus at-home testing plus newly arriving oral antiviral pills become the default protocol — recurring revenue for the vaccine and antiviral makers rather than a one-and-done campaign.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 57.6 WATCH
DORMANT
band · contested
▲ LONG PFE
expression · bullish equities
HIT
outcome · R +21.8% · α +26.6%
2022-07-30
window closed
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2021-07-30 → 2022-07-30 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG PFE (primary play). PFE rose 21.8% over the window → direction-adjusted R = +21.8% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned -4.7% → α = +21.8 − (-4.7) = +26.6% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
- Rule fired:
▶ HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5 ✓ (R 21.8, α 26.6)· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0· MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a HIT earn 1.0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath, Jason, Sacks | opposed: Friedberg | proxy-sensitive: MRNA→MISS (-53.6%)
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2021-07-30)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | PFE | stock | PRIMARY | the booster Jason names plus the leading oral antiviral program |
| ▲ LONG | MRK | stock | adjacent | one of the 'three different pharma companies' with an oral antiviral in flight |
| ▲ LONG | MRNA | stock | adjacent | second mRNA booster franchise |
Mention log
Sacks
equities w=0.89 · n=96
· E42 (2021-07-30) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 16:08
SUPPORT
“there's one other piece of news that came out that I think is very positive on COVID, which is the availability of these oral antivirals, the pills. ... So I think that, you know, with the reduced effectiveness of vaccine, what we're going to have to do is supplement the vaccines and the boosters with home testing.”
Jason
equities w=0.97 · n=105
· E42 (2021-07-30) · sentiment · strength 1
▶ 15:38
SUPPORT
“Give me the third shot of Pfizer. And then I opened up Drudge Report yesterday. And it's like third shot of vaccine, a Pfizer in Israel or whatever. They're just going to start giving people a third shot. Yeah, I just want to get ahead of the curve.”
Friedberg
equities w=0.87 · n=120
· E49 (2021-10-02) · sentiment · strength 1
▶ 40:57
SUPPORT
“We don't yet know if it reduces the transmission rate. So there's a lot of question marks on like, does this actually solve the problem of the pandemic? It's certainly another instrument to blunt the, you know, the impact.”
Sacks
equities w=0.89 · n=96
· E60 (2021-12-23) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 36:41
SUPPORT
· horizon 12mo
“These new pills have, I think, a very good shot of doing it next year because they're protease inhibitors. ... I am hopeful that this will be the thing, hopefully, that ends the pandemic next year, are these new antiviral pills.”
Friedberg
equities w=0.87 · n=120
· E60 (2021-12-23) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 37:35
OPPOSE
“I would be very cautious about the side effects that are going to arise from these protease inhibitors. ... I think as more people use them, you'll see more crazy stories about side effects that are really significantly adverse.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -55.3 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E42 2021-07-30 | init | +31.0 | 31.0 | E42 born by Sacks (explicit_prediction x2) [w=0.89] |
| E42 2021-07-30 | reinforce | +12.1 | 43.1 | E42 Jason support x1 (new voice) [w=0.97] |
| E43 2021-08-06 | decay | -1.7 | 41.3 | E43 silent |
| E44 2021-08-28 | decay | -1.7 | 39.7 | E44 silent |
| E45 2021-09-04 | decay | -1.6 | 38.1 | E45 silent |
| E46 2021-09-14 | decay | -1.5 | 36.6 | E46 silent |
| E47 2021-09-18 | decay | -1.5 | 35.1 | E47 silent |
| E49 2021-10-02 | reinforce | +10.1 | 45.2 | E49 Friedberg support x1 (new voice) [w=0.87] |
| E49 2021-10-02 | reinforce | +12.4 | 57.6 | E49 Chamath support x3 (new voice) [w=0.84] |
| E50 2021-10-09 | decay | -2.3 | 55.3 | E50 silent |
| E51 2021-10-16 | decay | -2.2 | 53.1 | E51 silent |
| E52 2021-10-23 | decay | -2.1 | 51.0 | E52 silent |
| E53 2021-10-30 | decay | -2.0 | 48.9 | E53 silent |
| E54 2021-11-06 | decay | -2.0 | 47.0 | E54 silent |
| E55 2021-11-13 | decay | -1.9 | 45.1 | E55 silent |
| E56 2021-11-20 | decay | -1.8 | 43.3 | E56 silent |
| E57 2021-12-04 | reinforce | +7.5 | 50.8 | E57 Sacks support x2 [w=0.89] |
| E58 2021-12-11 | decay | -2.0 | 48.8 | E58 silent |
| E59 2021-12-17 | decay | -2.0 | 46.8 | E59 silent |
| E60 2021-12-23 | reinforce | +7.1 | 53.9 | E60 Sacks support x2 [w=0.89] |
| E60 2021-12-23 | oppose | -10.4 | 43.5 | E60 Friedberg opposes x2 [w=0.87] |
| E61 2021-12-29 | decay | -1.7 | 41.8 | E61 silent |
| E62 2022-01-08 | decay | -1.7 | 40.1 | E62 silent |
| E63 2022-01-15 | decay | -1.6 | 38.5 | E63 silent |
| E64 2022-01-22 | decay | -1.5 | 36.9 | E64 silent |
| E65 2022-01-29 | decay | -1.5 | 35.5 | E65 silent |
| E66 2022-02-05 | decay | -1.4 | 34.1 | E66 silent |
| E67 2022-02-12 | decay | -1.4 | 32.7 | E67 silent |
| E68 2022-02-19 | decay | -1.3 | 31.4 | E68 silent |
| E70 2022-02-24 | decay | -1.3 | 30.1 | E70 silent |
| E71 2022-03-05 | decay | -1.2 | 28.9 | E71 silent |
| E72 2022-03-19 | decay | -1.2 | 27.8 | E72 silent |
| E73 2022-03-26 | decay | -1.1 | 26.7 | E73 silent |
| E74 2022-04-01 | decay | -1.1 | 25.6 | E74 silent |
| E75 2022-04-09 | decay | -1.0 | 24.6 | E75 silent |
| E76 2022-04-16 | decay | -1.0 | 23.6 | E76 silent |
| E77 2022-04-23 | decay | -0.9 | 22.6 | E77 silent |
| E78 2022-04-30 | decay | -0.9 | 21.7 | E78 silent |
| E79 2022-05-07 | decay | -0.9 | 20.9 | E79 silent |
| E80 2022-05-13 | decay | -0.8 | 20.0 | E80 silent |
| E81 2022-05-23 | decay | -0.8 | 19.2 | E81 silent |
| E82 2022-05-24 | decay | -0.8 | 18.5 | E82 silent |
| E84 2022-06-24 | decay | -0.7 | 17.7 | E84 silent |
| E85 2022-06-30 | decay | -0.7 | 17.0 | E85 silent |
| E86 2022-07-08 | decay | -0.7 | 16.3 | E86 silent |
| E87 2022-07-14 | decay | -0.7 | 15.7 | E87 silent |
| E88 2022-07-22 | decay | -0.6 | 15.1 | E88 silent |
| E89 2022-07-29 | decay | -0.6 | 14.4 | E89 silent |