← pool

📈 Boosters + oral antivirals become the standard COVID stack

Delta's breakthrough infections mean vaccine efficacy decays, so third shots plus at-home testing plus newly arriving oral antiviral pills become the default protocol — recurring revenue for the vaccine and antiviral makers rather than a one-and-done campaign.

0 CONVICTION
peaked 62.9 WATCH
EMBER
band · contested
▲ LONG PFE
expression · bullish equities
RIGHT
result · return +21.8% · vs SPY +26.6%
2022-07-30
born 2021-07-30 (E42) → window closed

⚖ Why this result

fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set

  1. Window: 2021-07-30 → 2022-07-30 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
  2. The call: ▲ LONG PFE (primary play). PFE rose 21.8% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = +21.8% (the call made money).
  3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned -4.7% → vs SPY = +21.8 − (-4.7) = +26.6% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
  4. Rule fired:
    ▶ RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+ ✓ (return 21.8, vs SPY 26.6)
    · HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all
    · WRONG — everything else
  5. Credit: supporters of a RIGHT earn 1.0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Chamath, Jason, Sacks | opposed: Friedberg | proxy-sensitive: MRNA→MISS (-53.6%)

Conviction timeline

bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15

Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2021-07-30)

Plays

expressionsymbolkindrelevancerationale
▲ LONG PFEstock PRIMARY the booster Jason names plus the leading oral antiviral program
▲ LONG MRKstock adjacent one of the 'three different pharma companies' with an oral antiviral in flight
▲ LONG MRNAstock adjacent second mRNA booster franchise

Mention log newest first

Friedberg
Friedberg equities 43% · n=123 · E60 (2021-12-23) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 37:35 OPPOSE
“I would be very cautious about the side effects that are going to arise from these protease inhibitors. ... I think as more people use them, you'll see more crazy stories about side effects that are really significantly adverse.”
Sacks
Sacks equities 44% · n=96 · E60 (2021-12-23) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 36:41 SUPPORT · horizon 12mo
“These new pills have, I think, a very good shot of doing it next year because they're protease inhibitors. ... I am hopeful that this will be the thing, hopefully, that ends the pandemic next year, are these new antiviral pills.”
Sacks
Sacks equities 44% · n=96 · E57 (2021-12-04) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 19:53 SUPPORT
“The only thing that seems to work is vaccines and booster shots. There's some good data around the third data, the third booster preventing serious cases.”
Chamath
Chamath equities 42% · n=163 · E49 (2021-10-02) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 42:40 SUPPORT
“I think that the combination of vaccines and what is equivalently Tamiflu for COVID, which is effectively what this is, is the one-two punch we need so that this basically is rendered.”
Friedberg
Friedberg equities 43% · n=123 · E49 (2021-10-02) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 40:57 SUPPORT
“We don't yet know if it reduces the transmission rate. So there's a lot of question marks on like, does this actually solve the problem of the pandemic? It's certainly another instrument to blunt the, you know, the impact.”
Sacks
Sacks equities 44% · n=96 · E42 (2021-07-30) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 16:08 SUPPORT
“there's one other piece of news that came out that I think is very positive on COVID, which is the availability of these oral antivirals, the pills. ... So I think that, you know, with the reduced effectiveness of vaccine, what we're going to have to do is supplement the vaccines and the boosters with home testing.”
Jason
Jason equities 49% · n=105 · E42 (2021-07-30) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 15:38 SUPPORT
“Give me the third shot of Pfizer. And then I opened up Drudge Report yesterday. And it's like third shot of vaccine, a Pfizer in Israel or whatever. They're just going to start giving people a third shot. Yeah, I just want to get ahead of the curve.”

Who built this conviction

each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Sacks
Sacks 44%
3 scoring events · 51% of moves
+50.3 → net +50.3
Friedberg
Friedberg 43%
2 scoring events · 23% of moves
+11.1 / -12.0 → net -0.9
Chamath
Chamath 42%
1 scoring event · 14% of moves
+13.7 → net +13.7
Jason
Jason 49%
1 scoring event · 12% of moves
+11.7 → net +11.7

⏳ decay drained -59.5 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one

Score events

episodekindΔafternote
E42 2021-07-30 init +35.0 35.0 E42 born by Sacks (explicit_prediction x2)
E42 2021-07-30 reinforce +11.7 46.7 E42 Jason support x1 (new voice)
E43 2021-08-06 decay -1.9 44.8 E43 silent
E44 2021-08-28 decay -1.8 43.0 E44 silent
E45 2021-09-04 decay -1.7 41.3 E45 silent
E46 2021-09-14 decay -1.7 39.7 E46 silent
E47 2021-09-18 decay -1.6 38.1 E47 silent
E49 2021-10-02 reinforce +11.1 49.2 E49 Friedberg support x1 (new voice)
E49 2021-10-02 reinforce +13.7 62.9 E49 Chamath support x3 (new voice)
E50 2021-10-09 decay -2.5 60.4 E50 silent
E51 2021-10-16 decay -2.4 58.0 E51 silent
E52 2021-10-23 decay -2.3 55.7 E52 silent
E53 2021-10-30 decay -2.2 53.5 E53 silent
E54 2021-11-06 decay -2.1 51.3 E54 silent
E55 2021-11-13 decay -2.1 49.3 E55 silent
E56 2021-11-20 decay -2.0 47.3 E56 silent
E57 2021-12-04 reinforce +7.9 55.2 E57 Sacks support x2
E58 2021-12-11 decay -2.2 53.0 E58 silent
E59 2021-12-17 decay -2.1 50.9 E59 silent
E60 2021-12-23 reinforce +7.4 58.2 E60 Sacks support x2
E60 2021-12-23 oppose -12.0 46.2 E60 Friedberg opposes x2
E61 2021-12-29 decay -1.8 44.4 E61 silent
E62 2022-01-08 decay -1.8 42.6 E62 silent
E63 2022-01-15 decay -1.7 40.9 E63 silent
E64 2022-01-22 decay -1.6 39.3 E64 silent
E65 2022-01-29 decay -1.6 37.7 E65 silent
E66 2022-02-05 decay -1.5 36.2 E66 silent
E67 2022-02-12 decay -1.4 34.7 E67 silent
E68 2022-02-19 decay -1.4 33.4 E68 silent
E70 2022-02-24 decay -1.3 32.0 E70 silent
E71 2022-03-05 decay -1.3 30.7 E71 silent
E72 2022-03-19 decay -1.2 29.5 E72 silent
E73 2022-03-26 decay -1.2 28.3 E73 silent
E74 2022-04-01 decay -1.1 27.2 E74 silent
E75 2022-04-09 decay -1.1 26.1 E75 silent
E76 2022-04-16 decay -1.0 25.1 E76 silent
E77 2022-04-23 decay -1.0 24.1 E77 silent
E78 2022-04-30 decay -1.0 23.1 E78 silent
E79 2022-05-07 decay -0.9 22.2 E79 silent
E80 2022-05-13 decay -0.9 21.3 E80 silent
E81 2022-05-23 decay -0.9 20.4 E81 silent
E82 2022-05-24 decay -0.8 19.6 E82 silent
E84 2022-06-24 decay -0.8 18.8 E84 silent
E85 2022-06-30 decay -0.8 18.1 E85 silent
E86 2022-07-08 decay -0.7 17.4 E86 silent
E87 2022-07-14 decay -0.7 16.7 E87 silent
E88 2022-07-22 decay -0.7 16.0 E88 silent
E89 2022-07-29 decay -0.6 15.4 E89 silent