📈 Telcos go back to being dumb pipes — and that's a bad business

⚖ Why this result

fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set

1. Window: 2021-05-31 → 2022-05-31 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
2. The call: ▼ SHORT T (primary play). T rose 5.3% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = -5.3% (the call lost money).
3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned -0.3% → vs SPY = -5.3 − (-0.3) = -5.0% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
   Direction-only read: -5.6% — did T move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call beat the index outright.
4. Rule fired:
   · RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+

   · HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all

   ▶ WRONG — everything else
5. Credit: supporters of a WRONG earn 0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Chamath, Sacks | opposed: Friedberg | proxy-sensitive: VZ→PARTIAL (+4.6%)

each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Sacks 44%

1 scoring event · 57% of moves

+35.0 → net +35.0

Chamath 42%

1 scoring event · 27% of moves

+16.8 → net +16.8

Friedberg 43%

1 scoring event · 16% of moves

+0.0 / -9.6 → net -9.6

⏳ decay drained -35.7 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one