-6.5
net board stance
what this means
152.56
-2.0% · close 2026-11-06
+14% / -1% / +16%
1m / 3m / 12m
+6%
vs SPY since 2025-08-01
70%
of 52w range · -7.7% off high
—
hit rate as primary
Where All-In Alpha stands — 1 live idea
| idea | call | play | conviction | contributes | moved yet? | scored in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏛️ LA fire rebuild stalls for years, not months | ▼ SHORT | adjacent ×0.5 | 13.0 | -6.5 | — | 437d |
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. From the
conviction ledger; an idea counts from birth until its window closes. Dots mark episodes
where this ticker's ideas were actually mentioned; a dashed stretch is silence.
Last mention E211 · silent for 84 episodes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × that idea's direction ON THIS TICKER × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down, unless this ticker is listed as the other side of it. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
What resolves next
scoring dates for the live ideas holding this ticker — each one turns into a scored result on that date, whether it flatters anyone or not
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding TOL, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
Even if you get a permit within six months, and this is where I do agree with Friedberg, like getting service people in and being able to build something to spec safely is going to take three, four, five, six years, and it's going to be insane.
Mark Pincus
support ×2
▼ on
🏛️ LA fire rebuild stalls for years, not months
E211 · 2025-01-18
▶ 44:02
when it comes to service providers, yeah, you have the opposite problem right now, which is like you're saying, you need to incentivize a huge construction force to come to LA. And the cost for them to get there, to find housing themselves, is going to be even higher, or the amount of distance they're going to have to travel every day. So I think this could have real unintended consequences and just stop the wheels from turning on rebuilding all these homes, or just make it way more complex.
If you don't pay a premium to get somebody to leave another market to come to this one, which is what's going to be required, there are simply not enough construction people in any state.
except the governor just said, we can't pay people 10% higher than what they were getting paid right before this happened on an indefinite basis. And then Karen Bass created a hotline. ... There is not enough service providers down there. You're going to end up waiting six, seven years to get your home rebuilt.