+0.0
net board stance
what this means
84.18
-0.5% · close 2026-09-08
+11% / +6% / +39%
1m / 3m / 12m
+65%
vs SPY since 2025-02-15
92%
of 52w range · -3.0% off high
0/1
hit rate as primary · α -68
Where we stand — 0 live ideas
No active idea holds this ticker. Anything below is history.
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 46 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from
score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
Track record on ADM
As a PRIMARY play the besties are 0 hit / 0 partial / 1 miss over 1 closed window — credit 0.0, average α -68.4. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.
| idea | call | play | verdict | R | α | closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🛢️ China retaliates by halting US ag imports, forcing farm transfer payments | ▼ SHORT | primary | MISS | -55.6% | -68.4 | 2026-02-15 |
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding ADM, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
Friedberg
support ×3
▼ on
🛢️ China retaliates by halting US ag imports, forcing farm transfer payments
E222 · 2025-04-05
▶ 1:03:33
China stopped buying American ag exports and China is the biggest buyer of American agricultural products. As a result, the Trump Administration had to issue two support payment checks to farmers that totaled $28 billion in 2018 and 2019
Friedberg
support ×2
▼ on
🛢️ China retaliates by halting US ag imports, forcing farm transfer payments
E215 · 2025-02-15
▶ 1:16:38
Ag exports are a major revenue source, major income source and a major part of the economy for a large number of states. And so there will be, as there was in the first Trump presidency, very likely very large transfer payments made to farmers. Because China is very likely going to tear up imports or stop making import purchases altogether, which is what happened during the first presidency. When they did that, the federal government, I believe, had transfer payments of north of $20 billion to farmers.