+8.7
net board stance
what this means
80.27
+1.0% · close 2026-09-08
+25% / +22% / +42%
1m / 3m / 12m
-88%
vs SPY since 2022-11-05
92%
of 52w range · -2.8% off high
0/1
hit rate as primary · α -42
Where we stand — 1 live idea
| idea | call | play | conviction | contributes | flag | eval in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🛢️ Global nitrogen-fertilizer supply shock | ▲ LONG | adjacent ×0.5 | 17.4 | +8.7 | — | 205d |
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from
score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
What resolves next
kill dates for the live ideas holding this ticker — each one turns into a scored verdict on that date, whether we like it or not
Track record on NTR
As a PRIMARY play the besties are 0 hit / 0 partial / 1 miss over 1 closed window — credit 0.0, average α -42.5. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.
| idea | call | play | verdict | R | α | closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 📈 Ag retail is the chokepoint for farm productivity - Friedberg SPACs Lavoro | ▲ LONG | primary | MISS | -26.6% | -42.5 | 2023-09-17 |
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding NTR, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
absolutely 99 percent confidence that will make the upcoming year the hottest year on record ... currently facing a shortage of nitrogen based fertilizer because of the crisis with Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, ... the commodity markets are going wild for this right now. ... It's become kind of a focal area for a lot of folks in commodity markets.
about 35% of the world's nitrogen fertilizer goes through the Strait of Hormuz. ... urea was trading at about 350 bucks a ton before the conflict ... It reached over $700 a ton in the last two days. ... now going to be incapacitated for three to five years. And if you want to build a new facility, it takes about seven years.
Chamath
support ×1
▲ on
📈 Ag retail is the chokepoint for farm productivity - Friedberg SPACs Lavoro
E96 · 2022-09-17
▶ 1:00:19
And it seems like a very good entry valuation, good margin of safety too.
Friedberg
support ×3
▲ on
📈 Ag retail is the chokepoint for farm productivity - Friedberg SPACs Lavoro
E96 · 2022-09-17
▶ 52:16
We put two-thirds of our, these founder promote shares. They're, you know, the only vest if we can hit the stock price of $12.50 and $15 over the next three years. Otherwise we lose them. So we've really tried to align ourselves as shareholders and really put our money where our mouth is on this.