⚡ Energy among 2024's top performers on conflict escalation

Chamath energy 27% · n=22 · E174 (2024-04-12) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 25:10 SUPPORT

“When you make these cuts like this, prices will go up because OPEC Plus is meaningfully bigger. The sum of all the parts of OPEC Plus is meaningfully bigger than just the United States on its own”

Sacks energy 47% · n=16 · E161 (2024-01-13) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 25:46 SUPPORT

“we could have a perfect storm of things coming together here, where at precisely the time we end up getting involved in a big war in the Middle East, our tools to mitigate the oil shock that would create have been reduced by what the administration has done over the past year”

Friedberg energy 39% · n=18 · E161 (2024-01-13) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 23:52 SUPPORT

“There's definitely structural risk because you have a supply chain that can get disrupted in a number of ways and limited alternative options ... there's not a lot of levers for the government to intervene to support the supply”

Chamath energy 27% · n=22 · E161 (2024-01-13) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 18:58 OPPOSE

“even with the conflagrations in the Middle East, if you look at what people think about the future price of oil, it's also down. Oil futures are, I think, about 5 to 10 percent lower than spot right now”

Sacks energy 47% · n=16 · E160 (2024-01-06) · annual_prediction · strength 1 ▶ 54:30 SUPPORT · horizon 12mo

“My guess here, just a guess, is energy stocks, energy prices could be among the top performers of 2024, just because there's so much risk of conflict breaking out now and escalating... so many ways that conflict could escalate and create a spike in the price of oil. [Heavily disclaimed: 'I would urge nobody to actually trade on this.']”