⚡ Energy among 2024's top performers on conflict escalation

Sacks energy w=0.94 · n=16 · E160 (2024-01-06) · annual_prediction · strength 1 ▶ 54:30 SUPPORT · horizon 12mo

“My guess here, just a guess, is energy stocks, energy prices could be among the top performers of 2024, just because there's so much risk of conflict breaking out now and escalating... so many ways that conflict could escalate and create a spike in the price of oil. [Heavily disclaimed: 'I would urge nobody to actually trade on this.']”

Chamath energy w=0.55 · n=22 · E161 (2024-01-13) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 18:58 OPPOSE

“even with the conflagrations in the Middle East, if you look at what people think about the future price of oil, it's also down. Oil futures are, I think, about 5 to 10 percent lower than spot right now”

Friedberg energy w=0.78 · n=18 · E161 (2024-01-13) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 23:52 SUPPORT

“There's definitely structural risk because you have a supply chain that can get disrupted in a number of ways and limited alternative options ... there's not a lot of levers for the government to intervene to support the supply”

Sacks energy w=0.94 · n=16 · E161 (2024-01-13) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 25:46 SUPPORT

“we could have a perfect storm of things coming together here, where at precisely the time we end up getting involved in a big war in the Middle East, our tools to mitigate the oil shock that would create have been reduced by what the administration has done over the past year”

Chamath energy w=0.55 · n=22 · E174 (2024-04-12) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 25:10 SUPPORT

“When you make these cuts like this, prices will go up because OPEC Plus is meaningfully bigger. The sum of all the parts of OPEC Plus is meaningfully bigger than just the United States on its own”